Every sports market we cover — model verdicts published before settlement, graded when the market resolves.
Polymarket takes parlays, and this page builds one from any NBA game tonight with the fair price from 10,000 Stokastic Sims printed next to the price on Polymarket, so you know before you buy.
Jake Hari · October 26, 2026
Ten Week 6 Sunday and Monday parlays from Ask The Sims that cashed, led by Jayden Daniels 300 yards in a Commanders loss at 5.3%. Then ask about Patriots at Bears on Thursday.
Jake Hari · October 20, 2026
Build any DraftKings same game parlay for tonight's NBA games and see what it should pay. 10,000 Stokastic Sims price every leg and every parlay next to the odds on DraftKings, so you know before you bet.
Build any FanDuel same game parlay for tonight's NBA games and see what it should pay. 10,000 Stokastic Sims price every leg and every parlay next to the odds on FanDuel, so you know before you bet.
Yes, you can parlay NBA games on Kalshi. They are called combos, and this Kalshi combo builder prices any one against 10,000 simulated games of each NBA game tonight, next to the price on Kalshi, so you know before you buy.
Dave Loughran · October 20, 2026
Monday night is one game, and Ask the Sims has 10,000 runs of it. The questions people are already asking, what the Sims answer, the three tools to use before kickoff, and the one to switch on at 8:15: Live Sims, which re-counts from the score on the field.
Jake Hari · October 19, 2026
One bold prediction for every Week 6 game, each taken from a real game the Sims played this week that happens about once in a hundred runs or less. Five-touchdown nights, a Lambeau shutout, a 56-point Browns game, and the sim number for each so you can go ask the Sims yourself.
Jake Hari · October 17, 2026
One of the 10,000 Sims of Sunday night's Cowboys at Packers had Dallas down 26 points with 13 minutes left and winning on a 58-yard field goal with seven seconds on the clock. Here is the whole game, the box score, and how rare it is.
One of the 10,000 Sims of Sunday morning's Texans at Jaguars in London put 97 points on the Wembley scoreboard, with C.J. Stroud throwing 67 times for 546 yards and Nico Collins catching four touchdowns. Here is that game, play by play, and how rare it is.
16,000 questions went into Ask the Sims this week. These are the ten people asked most for Sunday and Monday, with the answers the Sims gave and the price beside each, so you can ask the next one yourself.
NFL Week 6 anytime TD scorer picks for every Sunday game, plus the best DraftKings parlay in each from 10,000 Stokastic Sims. Ask the Sims your own question.
Sam Smith · October 16, 2026
My Seahawks vs. Broncos Polymarket parlay for Thursday night: Smith-Njigba scores, Seattle wins by 4+, Darnold throws two TDs. It hits in 19.7% of our Sims.
Jake Hari · October 14, 2026
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is off the injury report and scores in 50.3% of our Sims, and his touchdown costs 45.7¢ on Polymarket. Seattle by 4+ is the second buy.
Last year's Cowboys-Packers game ended 40-40, and the Sims see another coin flip. George Pickens scores in 46.7% of them at +160, and the best parlay stacks him with Dak.
Jake Hari · October 13, 2026
Tucker Kraft scores in 37.8% of our Sims of Cowboys-Packers, and he's +210 at DraftKings. Plus Flournoy, Maye, Brenton Strange on Kalshi in London, and the likeliest touchdown scorer in all 14 Week 6 games.
Five Week 6 parlays I built by asking our Sims, led by a Kalshi parlay on the underdog Raiders beating Buffalo by 6+. Ask The Sims your own for free.
Score predictions and one bet for all 14 NFL Week 6 games, from 10,000 Sims each. Lamar Jackson looks set to return, and my upset pick is still the Browns at +197.
I asked the Sims about Seahawks at Broncos on Thursday night. Jaxon Smith-Njigba scores in 50.3% of them, and he's +105 to do it.
The games have already been played 10,000 times. Here's how to read the box scores before kickoff.
Eric Lindquist · October 13, 2026
The Sims have the Jaguars winning a close one at Wembley, 22-21. The bet I like most is Nico Collins to score at +170: he gets in on 43.3% of our Sims.
Seven Week 5 Sunday parlays from Ask The Sims that cashed, led by Jameis Winston 300 yards and 3 TDs at 1.7%. Then ask about Bills at Rams tonight.
Jake Hari · October 12, 2026
I asked the Sims five questions about Bills at Rams on Monday Night Football. The Bills moneyline is fairly priced. Bills by 4+ isn't, and the Rams' running backs fit the same script.
Deebo Samuel is listed out and a three-week absence moves the 49ers board by nothing. The engine has a bigger argument with the Super Bowl price.
Sam Smith · October 12, 2026
Six Ask The Sims answers for Sunday's 4:25 game and Sunday Night Football. With Lamar Jackson out, Michael Penix Jr. under 225 passing yards leads, then Seattle's defense against Brock Purdy and Mike Evans.
Jake Hari · October 10, 2026
I asked the Sims three questions about Eagles vs. Jaguars in London, one on each quarterback and one on the upset. One answer is the bet. The other two waited on DeVonta Smith, and he's out.
Jake Hari · October 9, 2026
Bucky Irving's touchdown is the best price in Bucs at Cowboys. His rushing yards are not. I asked the Sims about 60 yards and the card flipped to the under, with one way to buy the over that actually works.
Jake Hari · October 8, 2026
Javonte Williams is the Cowboys' back everyone bets to score, and the Sims say that is the one Williams bet to skip. His rushing yards are the cheap ones: 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 all trade under what 10,000 Sims say.
Build any DraftKings same game parlay for this week's NFL games and see what it should pay. 10,000 Stokastic Sims price every leg and every parlay next to the odds on DraftKings, so you know before you bet.
Jake Hari · October 7, 2026
Build any FanDuel same game parlay for this week's NFL games and see what it should pay. 10,000 Stokastic Sims price every leg and every parlay next to the odds on FanDuel, so you know before you bet.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys first touchdown scorer and anytime TD picks for Thursday Night Football: Javonte Williams is the name everyone bets, and the better ticket is Bucky Irving, the back a rookie-quarterback offense leans on.
Jake Hari · October 6, 2026
Buccaneers vs Cowboys prediction and same game parlay for Thursday Night Football: the Stokastic Sims see Dallas winning far more often than they see a blowout. That gap is a three-leg parlay, plus the three ways the game can go and the bet that fits each.
NFL Week 5 player props from 10,000 Stokastic Sims of every game: the best prop on Kalshi is Deshaun Watson running, not throwing. Plus Harold Fannin Jr., a Braelon Allen under, the Thursday night play and the Sims' numbers for games Kalshi hasn't priced yet.
A parlay calculator multiplies your legs. Legs from the same game don't work that way. Stokastic's parlay simulator plays each NFL game 10,000 times and counts how often your whole combo hits together, next to the Kalshi price on every leg.
Atlanta beat New Orleans 45-24 and Falcons playoff odds went from 24% to 35% in the Season Engine. Kalshi moved further, and that gap is the story.
Sam Smith · October 5, 2026
Vikings playoff odds sit at 67% in Stokastic's Season Engine. Swap in Justin Herbert for Kyler Murray and they move to 70%. Here is why that is the whole gain.
Lamar Jackson injured his ankle against the Titans and is believed day-to-day. If he misses two games, Ravens playoff odds drop three points and the division four.
Cowboys vs Texans same game parlay for Week 4: Houston edges it, Javonte Williams stays under 70 rushing yards and the game doesn't turn into a shootout. Two scripts, two tickets, priced in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
Jake Hari · October 4, 2026
Falcons vs Saints anytime TD picks for Monday Night Football: Alvin Kamara's touchdown costs more than he scores in the sims, and the cheaper Saints back is the better bet. Every scorer's Kalshi price next to the Stokastic Sims rate, and one call to buy.
Bijan Robinson scores the first touchdown in 19.4% of the sims and costs 18¢ on Kalshi. Chris Olave is the Saints' best first-scorer bet over Alvin Kamara, and Drake London is the longshot with room.
My Falcons vs Saints prediction for Monday Night Football: Saints 27-24 and a game that clears 49.5. Type your own final into Pick Your Game Script, then see the Saints side, the Falcons-blowout case and the total, each priced on Kalshi.
A Falcons vs Saints same game parlay for Monday night: New Orleans wins with Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson both held in check, plus an Atlanta ticket that bets against both passing games. Both priced by 10,000 Stokastic Sims in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
A Lions vs Panthers same game parlay built on a close Detroit win with no shootout and Bryce Young held short of 275 passing yards, plus the Chuba Hubbard ticket if Carolina flips it. Both priced by 10,000 Stokastic Sims in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
Packers vs Buccaneers same game parlay for Week 4: Green Bay wins by a touchdown, MarShawn Lloyd gets his yards and Tampa's ground game stalls. Three scores, three tickets, priced in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
A Patriots vs Bills same game parlay built on a Bills win that stays out of shootout range while TreVeyon Henderson is held under 50 rushing yards, plus the upset ticket. Both priced by 10,000 Stokastic Sims in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
Rams vs Eagles same game parlay for Week 4: the Rams win a low-scoring game in Philadelphia without blowing it open, and Blake Corum stays under 50 rushing yards. Two scripts, two tickets, priced in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
Titans vs Ravens same game parlay for Week 4: Baltimore wins, but not by 18, the game stays under 49.5 points and Lamar Jackson stays under 250 passing yards. Two scripts, two tickets, priced in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator.
Two 3-0 teams in Las Vegas, and the Raiders trade at about 34 cents on Kalshi. Type in a Raiders win and the simulator's top ticket is Kirk Cousins throwing for 200. Three final scores, priced by 10,000 Stokastic Sims.
Jake Hari · October 3, 2026
Marcus Mariota starts for Washington in London. Three final scores and the best three-leg Kalshi combo for each, priced by 10,000 Stokastic Sims in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator on game morning.
Three final scores for Steelers-Browns on Thursday Night Football, three Kalshi combos for each, and exactly what changes in the prices when the game script does.
Eric Lindquist · September 30, 2026
Polymarket takes parlays, and this page builds one from any NFL game this week with the fair price from 10,000 Stokastic Sims printed next to the price on Polymarket, so you know before you buy.
Jake Hari · September 29, 2026
Yes, you can parlay on Kalshi. They are called combos, and this Kalshi combo builder prices any one against 10,000 simulated games of each NFL game this week, next to the price on Kalshi, so you know before you buy.
Dave Loughran · September 28, 2026
Buffalo is unbeaten and has given up more points than any other unbeaten team. The Chargers are winless, scored 14 in both games at home, and Sunday is their first road trip. The Bills are laying a touchdown. Pick the script you see, then check mine.
Jake Hari · September 25, 2026
The Eagles are 2-0 by a combined 6 points and land in Chicago with their tight end out and their running backs cleared on Saturday. The Bears start their third quarterback. Pick the Monday night you see and the cleanest way to bet it.
Puka Nacua is out again, and the market still makes the Rams the road favorite at Mile High. Stafford already won a game without him, four touchdowns on Monday night. Pick the script you see Sunday night and get the price and the cleanest contract for it.
Dallas is the home team on the schedule, but this one is at the Maracanã in Rio, the first NFL game in the city, and the Cowboys get there without three defensive backs. Baltimore lays 3.5 a week after losing at home to New Orleans. Pick how you think Sunday plays out and see how to bet it.
Stokastic had the game plan right and the team wrong. Atlanta ran 41 times and Bijan Robinson went for 194 yards; Green Bay threw 53 passes and both of its backs missed 30 yards. The Thursday night board graded 1 of 4.
Jake Hari · September 24, 2026
Graded: Nacua sat, Davante Adams caught 8 for 195 and two scores at 42 cents, and Kyren Williams cleared 60 rushing yards at 55 cents. The Giants side went 0 for 3 after Jameis Winston started at quarterback.
Jake Hari · September 20, 2026
Graded: David Montgomery was projected for 84.7 rushing yards and ran six times for 10, so the 70-yard contract at 37 cents went to zero, and the other four Kalshi plays went with it. The eight small rows off the exchange went 6-1. What the projections missed, and what still worked.
Two weeks turned Josh Allen from an 11-cent favorite into a 28-cent one, and a five-seat price-blind panel stopped at 22. The same panel has Patrick Mahomes four cents above his price and 18 cents on the names nobody is paying for yet. The full Kalshi MVP board after Week 2, with every gap.
Jake Hari · September 6, 2026
Kalshi's season win totals say Philadelphia is three wins better than Washington. Its Week 1 game market prices the Eagles as a smaller favorite than that gap implies. Here is which board to trust and where the trade is.
Jake Hari · September 4, 2026
Broncos vs Chiefs showdown DFS: seven AI models priced the Monday night opener without seeing Kalshi, and the closer, lower-scoring game they see changes the captain slot.
Jake Hari · September 3, 2026
Two weeks after the board took 2.2 expected wins off Chicago, it gave 2.1 back: the Bears beat the Jets with Caleb Williams still out, and the market decided they are not a one-player team. Buffalo lost its lead to a three-way tie. Every ladder, repriced Tuesday, with Week 5 read against them.
Patriots vs Seahawks showdown DFS: Kalshi's Week 1 player-prop board and nine price-blind AI models agree on almost every busy contract except two, AJ Barner's touchdown market and Drake Maye's passing yards, and the Maye gap changes the captain slot.
NBA Eastern Conference odds 2027: Kalshi prices LeBron's 76ers at 23 cents, the Knicks at 21. Eight price-blind AI models say the real race is Philly-Miami.
Jake Hari · August 18, 2026
NHL Western Conference odds 2027: Colorado leads Kalshi at 21 cents with Vegas at 14. Eight price-blind AI models fade the Avalanche and promote Edmonton.
College football playoff odds for Week 1: Kalshi's 50-team qualifier board against a nine-model panel that never saw a price, the single LSU order that is now more than half the event's volume, and the DFS read on every split.
Jake Hari · August 13, 2026
Kansas basketball next head coach odds on Kalshi show Jacque Vaughn at 14%, but the board's real favorite is no coach being named before November 10.
Kalshi has priced the UFC champion odds for every belt on December 31, and the biggest boards are calendar bets, not fight bets. Here is the full read.
AFC North odds on Kalshi put Baltimore first at 44.5 cents. Eight AI models scored the division blind, all eight agreed on the Ravens, and all eight priced them lower.
Jake Hari · August 12, 2026
Big 12 championship odds on Kalshi make Texas Tech a 51% favorite over 15 challengers, and the live trading volume tells a different story than the prices do.
Today's MLB home run odds on Kalshi, priced against Stokastic Sims HR probabilities. See the three biggest model vs. market gaps, graded daily.
The market has the Rams as the road favorite at Denver on Sunday night, and six AI models that priced Week 3 without seeing a price all have the Broncos above 60. The Saints are priced too high against the Raiders. All 16 games on the board, Week 2 graded, and the four games worth your Sunday.
WNBA Rookie of the Year 2026 odds: Olivia Miles trades at 99 cents on Kalshi while an eight-model AI panel, scoring price-blind, puts Lauren Betts first.
Kalshi's MLB best record odds as of August 11, 2026 had the Brewers a hair ahead of the Dodgers despite a three-game gap in the standings, with the 72-46 Rays priced as an afterthought. Both the best- and worst-record boards, and where the market disagrees with the standings.
Jake Hari · August 11, 2026
Live MLB playoff odds from Kalshi's qualifier market, read as implied probabilities against the standings math. Which teams the market says are alive.
NASCAR championship odds on Kalshi put Denny Hamlin at a 42% implied probability with 13 races left. How DFS players should read the 35-driver board.
NBA championship odds on Kalshi put the Spurs at 24% and the Thunder at 23% while the champion Knicks sit at 9%. Here is the projections-lens read.
Scheffler grand slam odds on Kalshi sit at 5 to 7 cents, and with 2026 settled the contract now prices one question: can he sweep all four majors in 2027?
World Series odds on Kalshi have spent a month moving toward the models: the Dodgers down to 30 cents, the Brewers up to 13. The full 30-club board, every gap and the DFS read.
Kalshi makes Notre Dame a 12.5-cent co-favorite for the January 2027 title. Seven AI models scored all 50 contracts from the verified 2025-26 playoff ledger and the preseason poll, and they pay less than half that for the Irish while pricing the 16-0 defending champion above its market.
Jake Hari · August 10, 2026
Kalshi's Heisman board opens the season pricing CJ Carr as its priciest name. Our eight-model blind panel put Julian Sayin first on all eight, Carr fourth.
MLB division odds on Kalshi price the three NL races at 76 to 97 cents while all three AL races stay live, and the full six-market board reads like an.
MLB MVP odds on Kalshi right now: Ohtani vs. Crow-Armstrong is a coin flip in the NL, Yordan Alvarez sits near 90 cents in the AL. It's about playing time.
Kalshi prices JJ Wetherholt at 61.5 cents and Kevin McGonigle at 82 for Rookie of the Year. Seven AI models split hard: a coin flip in the NL, a cap in the AL.
Kalshi's 27 open NBA next team markets in one tracker: live prices on Kawhi Leonard, Steph Curry and Bronny James, read through a DFS projections lens.
The August board packed fourteen teams into one coin-flip band. Two weeks of results cut that to seven, sent the Vikings up and the Chargers down harder than any other team, and left the NFC West holding three of the top eight prices. Every team, August against today, side by side.
Michael Brennan won the 2026 Wyndham Championship at 21 under, and Kalshi's winner market has the whole week on tape: 0.3 cents during Thursday's opening round, 4.2 Friday night, 28 after his Saturday 63, 98 on the back nine Sunday. What that price path teaches a golf DFS player, inside.
Kalshi runs 27 live NBA next-team boards and a 56-player trade market that has already graded ten deals. The money says Kawhi Leonard is 72 cents to land in Toronto, Steph Curry's stay-or-go board holds 3.3 million contracts, and Jonathan Kuminga is a three-way race.
Jake Hari · August 7, 2026
Kalshi prices the entire 2026-27 NBA postseason before opening night: a 19.6M-contract championship board with Oklahoma City and San Antonio on top, conference boards that call the West a two-team race, play-in markets, and a make-the-playoffs board that has already priced Milwaukee out.
Kalshi prices NFL player movement two ways: a 55-contract traded-before-December board and 13 next-team markets. The board has already graded two blockbusters, makes Maxx Crosby 30% to move, and prices Stefon Diggs at 2 cents to stay put. The permanent deadline hub, with the seller math.
This page has been consolidated. The canonical MLB home run leader odds Model Verdict — the full price-blind AI panel board — lives at one permanent URL.
Marcus Vale · August 6, 2026
Kalshi makes Caleb Wilson the 22.5-cent Rookie of the Year favorite. Eight price-blind AI models disagree hard: they put 31.8% on 19-cent AJ Dybantsa, price Wilson at a third of his cost, and back a pick-7 guard the market lets go at 6.5 cents. The full 16-rookie board inside.
Jake Hari · August 6, 2026
Five contested NFL backfields, read through live market prices instead of camp hype: a rookie OROY favorite in Arizona, a Denver depth chart the money refuses to believe, a 12.5-cent Seattle rookie our panel fades, and the committee math that should change how you draft ambiguity.
Kalshi already prices the 2027 NFL Draft three ways: Arch Manning at 33.5 cents to go first overall, Arizona at 36 cents to make the pick, and a top-5 board where Jeremiah Smith trades even with the quarterbacks. The permanent draft hub, with every market and the tank-race math.
Preseason NFL is a different sport, and the biggest edge isn't talent evaluation. It's knowing which coaches tell the truth, which ones lie, and which ones lie so predictably that the lie is the information.
Dave Loughran · August 5, 2026
Every 2026 college football conference championship market on one page with live prices: Georgia over Texas in the SEC, a three-team Big Ten fight, Texas Tech at 49.5 cents in the Big 12, and where the AI panel splits from every price.
Jake Hari · August 5, 2026
MLB home run leader odds: Kyle Schwarber takes the 2026 lead at 37 as the AI panel's graded August board gets its stress test. Every price, blend, and seat.
Eytan Shander · August 5, 2026
Kalshi prices Jahmyr Gibbs at 12.5 cents and Bijan Robinson at 12 to win 2026 Offensive Player of the Year. Eight price-blind AI models cut the market's favorite to fifth and spread the race across seven names — the full scored board is inside.
Every Kalshi-listed home run hitter, every day: Stokastic's simulated home run probability next to the live contract price, ranked by the size of the gap, with every published gap graded against settlement.
Jake Hari · August 4, 2026
Every day, we run millions of MLB simulations and compare them to Kalshi's live game and home run prices. This page shows where the Sims and the market disagree most, and grades yesterday's calls in public.
Seven NFL award races on one page, August against Week 3: Patrick Mahomes doubled his Comeback Player price, Josh Allen more than doubled his MVP price, Myles Garrett's knee erased the Defensive Player favorite, and the coach race has new names on top. Every favorite, then and now.
Kalshi prices Victor Wembanyama at 30.5 cents to win the 2026-27 NBA MVP. Eight price-blind AI models keep him first but pay 11 points less, hold Shai Gilgeous-Alexander near his price, and put nine points on a 2.5-cent Cade Cunningham. The full 52-name board inside.
Kalshi's market makes Jeremiyah Love the narrow 2026 OROY favorite over Fernando Mendoza. Eight price-blind AI models flip that hard, put a real number on 1-cent Ty Simpson, and fade Jadarian Price by nine points. The full 22-rookie board inside.
The permanent public record behind Stokastic's Kalshi coverage: every published sim-vs-market gap, recorded the day it appeared and graded against exchange settlement, wins and misses alike.
Way too early Week 1 predictions built from real market prices: all 16 games, the Super Bowl rematch opener, two true coin flips, and the biggest favorite of opening week.
Dave Loughran · August 3, 2026
Duke and Florida share the top of the Kalshi board at 12.5 cents each. The eight-model panel keeps Duke first at a discount, cuts Florida to 4.3%, and finds its edges at Houston, Arizona and the 48-team field bucket. The full 73-contract board inside.
Jake Hari · August 1, 2026
Kalshi makes Buffalo the 15-cent AFC favorite with Kansas City at 11. Eight AI models scored all 16 teams price-blind and their revised blend makes it a dead heat at the top, with Kansas City's 11-cent price the value side. The full board inside.
Jake Hari · July 28, 2026
Kalshi makes the Rams the 24-cent NFC favorite. Eight AI models scored all 16 teams price-blind and their revised blend has Philadelphia first at 16 percent, with the Rams fifth. The full conference board and the revision round inside.
Kalshi's biggest uncovered sports market, 17.5 million dollars traded, tees off Thursday in Detroit. Eight AI models scored the full 149-man field and put half their probability on the field itself, with Xander Schauffele their top name at 4 cents. Every verdict grades Sunday night.
Kalshi AL Central odds 2026: White Sox up to 62-63 cents, Tigers 17-18 as of Aug 18. A price-blind 8-model AI panel had Chicago at 45%. Full board, worked math.
Jake Hari · July 27, 2026
NBA Western Conference odds 2027: Kalshi prices a Spurs-Thunder coin flip at 34 and 33 cents. Eight price-blind AI models break it toward OKC.
NHL Eastern Conference odds 2027: Florida leads Kalshi at 20 cents with Carolina at 19, a flip 8 price-blind AI models called in July.
