Wells Fargo Championship PGA DFS: Viktor Hovland can flourish

The PGA Tour heads into May this week with another running of the Wells Fargo Championship. This is an elevated event which will feature 120 golfers and a $20 million prize purse, with $3.6 million going to the winner. The Wells Fargo is played at one of the best regular-season stops all year in Quail Hollow, a legit championship course that has hosted big events, including the PGA Championship back in 2017 — and the Presidents Cup last season. The venue didn’t host this event last year but returns to regular hosting duties in 2023. Now let’s take a look at Wells Fargo Championship DFS picks and preview.

The field this week will include plenty of big names. Max Homa, a two-time winner of the event (2019 at Quail Hollow, 2022 at TPC Potomac), is playing, as is 2021 winner Rory McIlroy. McIlroy is making his first start since withdrawing suddenly from the RBC Heritage a couple of weeks ago and has yet to update the media on the reasons why. Not in the field this week will be Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm (who played last week). A couple of late additions to the field include Alejandro Tosti and Dylan Wu.

Don’t forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, after you get the 2023 Mexico Open preview. They have both scoring data and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week.

PGA DFS Picks: 2023 Wells Fargo Championship DFS Picks & Preview

This will be the last big test prior to the PGA Championship in two weeks. As a long par 71, Quail Hollow remains a perfect lead-in start going into the PGA Championship, which prefers longer setups where scoring is tough but fair. All of the last three winners of this event, when it was held at Quail, finished between 12 and 16 under par, so don’t expect lower scoring similar to last eek.

What you can expect is another elite name taking down the trophy. Max Homa (x2), Jason Day, and Rory McIlroy have all won this event over the last four seasons at Quail while Justin Thomas was a winner at Quail Hollow in 2017 for the PGA Championship. The venue is long and constantly puts pressure on players to excel off the tee and with their approaches.

One thing to note will be who plays well this week going into the next major in two weeks. Last season, Homa, Matthew Fitzpatrick, and Cameron Young all finished top 4 at this event and then all finished top 15 at the PGA Championship two weeks later. Anyone who plays well at this event should be fired up over their chances in a couple of weeks’ time on what will be a very similar setup in terms of length and toughness of scoring.

Wells Fargo Championship DFS Picks: Betting Trends

Below are some of the top players in the field to watch this week given their recent form and course history:

Tony Finau: Finau won his first event of 2023 last week in Mexico, fending off the best player in the world in the process. He gained 11.3 strokes ball striking and has yet to miss a cut in 2023.
Patrick Cantlay: Cantlay was again the hard-luck loser at the RBC a few weeks ago, finishing third there. He’s posted top-5 finishes in three of his last five stroke-play starts and hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in six straight events.
Jordan Spieth: Spieth narrowly lost in a playoff the last time he played (the RBC). He had a solid master’s finishing fourth after a great Sunday round and looks in peak form heading into the second major.
Patrick Rodgers: Rodgers has finished top 20 now in three straight events and gained strokes putting, off the tee and on approach in the process. He’s been displaying far more consistent ball striking in 2023.
Sahith Theegala: Theegala posted two top 10s in a row before faltering late with his partner Justin Suh at the team event. He’s played some great golf in 2023 and it will be interesting to see if he can keep posting great results throughout the summer after a small break.

Field Notes: The field this week had some late additions thanks to higher finishes in Mexico. Akshay Bhatia continued his impressive season with a fourth last week, which allowed him to enter the top 200 in the OWGR and get into this event… Rickie Fowler is back in action at the venue where he grabbed his first PGA win in 2012. He’s finished inside the top 20 in six of his last seven PGA starts… Rory McIlroy hasn’t played since bombing out at the Masters. He absolutely dominates Quail Hollow but hasn’t revealed why he withdrew from the RBC just yet.

Latest PGA DFS Content

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Past Winners and Winners Stats

*2022: Max Homa

Lead-in: 48/13/17 (missed the cut at the PLAYERS and the Masters the week prior)
Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 5.8/SG:APP 4.3/SG:ATG -2.3/SG:PUTT 7.6/SG:TTG 7.4
*played at TPC Potomac

2021: Rory McIlroy

Lead-in: MC/MC/10 (missed the cut at the PLAYERS and the Masters the week prior)
Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.3/SG:APP 5.3/SG:ATG 0.2/SG:PUTT 6.9/SG:TTG 7.8

2019: Max Homa

Lead-in: MC/52/42 (missed the cut at the PLAYERS and the Masters the week prior)
Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.8/SG:APP 4.6/SG:ATG 0.1/SG:PUTT 9.9/SG:TTG 7.4

The theme for this week seems to be strength off the tee and a hot putter. This is the formula that Max Homa and Rory McIlroy have both ridden to wins at this week’s venue in 2019 and 2021. Homa actually had a very similar performance last year when he won — to that of 2019 — at TPC Potomac, which is set up similarly as a longer, tougher-to-score-on venue for the pros. None of the last three winners did anything but remain neutral around the greens but all three winners got red hot with the putting while displaying great ball striking, an easy formula for winning events if you can manage it.

Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Course Preview

Quail Hollow: Par 71, 7,538 yards

Greens: Bermuda with Poa overseed

Designer: George Cobb (1961), Reno: Tom Fazio (1996, 2016)

Similar Courses: Copperhead Country Club, Riviera Country Club

Quail Hollow belongs in the same realm of speak as Riviera, Torrey Pines and Copperhead — a long-winding golf course that could likely host a major championship on any week if given two weeks of advanced notice. Quail was renovated back in 2016 so that it could host the PGA Championship and hasn’t disappointed since. It underwent massive changes for that event changing from a par 72 to a par 71 with a couple of holes getting completely different designs.

Since the changes, it has certainly catered to strong off-tee players, with McIlroy and Homa showcasing the advantage it yields such players perfectly. Of the past eight winners at Quail Hollow, all eight have averaged at least 290 yards off the tee for the season in the year of their win and ranked no worse than 36th in Driving Distance for the week in the year of their win—Thomas ranked first in Driving Distance at the 2017 PGA Championship, while Jason Day ranked 14th in this stat in 2018 when he won at Quail.

While there is some elevation to deal with, Quail is essentially a classic tree-lined setup that challenges golfers with tough, winding driving holes throughout. In 2018, it played as the fifth-toughest venue, playing to a 72.132 scoring average, and in 2019 it was the eighth-toughest venue at a 71.762. Copperhead, the host of the Valspar — and another tough long par 71 — profiles very strongly with Quail, and the leaderboard at both venues has been littered with many of the same names year after year. Riviera is also a good link as it sets up as a longer par 71 and also challenges players off the tee in much the same way that Quail does. 2019 Wells Fargo winner at Quail, Max Homa provides a good link to all three courses.

Key Stats: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee / Approach / Proximity >200 yards

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Recent Form Watch

Top Strokes Gained Approach (last 24 rounds):

Xander Schauffele
Collin Morikawa
Tony Finau
Rory McIlroy
Joohyung Kim

Top Strokes Gained Off the Tee (Last 24 rounds):

Keith Mitchell
Hayden Buckley
Rory McIlroy
Patrick Cantlay
Cameron Young

Top Approach Proximity greater than 200 yards (Last 50 Rounds):

Patrick Cantlay
Gary Woodland
Xander Schauffele
Augusto Núñez
Adam Svensson

2023 Wells Fargo Championship Weather Forecast

Thursday morning: 60-62 F, winds 3-5 mph/0-20% chance of precipitation

Thursday afternoon: 70-74 F, winds 4-6 mph/20% chance of precipitation

Friday morning: 55-60 F, winds 4-6 mph/60-80% chance of precipitation

Friday afternoon: 70-74 F, winds 6-8 mph/50% chance of precipitation

The weather this week is not an issue. Winds are not expected to be gusting very strongly at all, with no days projecting for double-digit strength. The temperature isn’t overly warm but it it’s also not cold enough to matter that much in the morning — although do expect the course will play long and likely see thicker rough. Rain on Saturday could make the rough even worse although softening the greens would also help the players for the final round, where great weather is expected on Sunday.

2023 Wells Fargo Championship DFS Picks and Early Betting Targets

Viktor Hovland | BetMGM Outright

Hovland has now had two weeks off since his final round meltdown at the RBC Heritage and should be ready to hit the ground running. Prior to that start, he’d looked in top form running out to fast leads at both Augusta and the RBC Heritage before faltering late. He has all you need for success at Quail Hollow, ranking first in strokes gained ball striking and second in strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 rounds. He’s also ranked first in proximity stats over that same time frame and 10th in proximity from greater than 200 yards, which is a busy range at this longer venue. Hovland played this event in 2021 finishing third for the week while gaining 8.4 strokes ball striking. The fact he skipped this event last year says just how much he appreciates the Quail Hollow setup, where the last few years have proven you only need be mediocre around the green to succeed. With his odds likely staying neutral or potentially even fading a bit after the RBC, he makes for a solid addition Monday morning to outright cards.

Byeong Hun An | BetMGM Outright

Last week made it nine made cuts in a row for Byeong Hun An who is thriving thus far in his second full-time stint on the PGA. An has looked like a much more complete player over the last few months and comes into this week’s event having now gained strokes on the greens in five of his last six starts. This stretch that he is on now constitutes one of the best stretches of putting of his career and he may have also found some of his old driving consistency of late as well, having now gained over 2.5 strokes off the tee over his last two starts. An is long and straight when his driver is working and if it is, he’ll be in very good shape to give it a good run at Quail Hollow, a venue he finished eighth on back in 2017. With the deeper field, and his last start in Mexico yielding just a 33rd place, look for his odds this week in the placing and outright markets to offer up some nice value later in the week.