FanDuel MLB DFS Cheat Sheet For August 10: Projections, Ownership, And Stacks

Monday, August 10 brings a 10-game MLB slate with a 7:07 PM ET first pitch, and today's free MLB DFS cheat sheet from Stokastic is the most decisive board I know how to read. The two panels the Sims control outright, top-150 exposure and leverage, print the same five names in the same order: Junior Caminero, Reid Detmers, Corbin Carroll, Yandy Diaz, Ketel Marte. No hedging, no split verdicts. And the one name half the field will roster tonight, Tarik Skubal at a towering 50.0% projected ownership, appears on neither of them. Four of the Sims' five names are bats, and they live in exactly two dugouts, Tampa Bay and Arizona; the fifth name is the pitcher the engine prefers to the chalk. That concentration is tonight's story, and the arm responsible for the Tampa Bay half of it has walked 43 hitters in 75 innings. I will get to him.

Junior Caminero — one of the featured players on today's slate.

The Quick Answer

Build around Junior Caminero and the 18.7% Tampa Bay 4-stack. Caminero leads the top-150 exposure panel at 63.3%, more than twice his 27.4% projected ownership, and leads the leverage panel at 35.6%, with teammate Yandy Diaz on four of the six panels beside him. At pitcher, Reid Detmers is the pivot: second in projections at 33.83 and second in exposure at 46.0% while his projected ownership misses the panel's top five, against Tarik Skubal chalk that half the field is on. The full six-panel board, the pitcher decision, and the Rays build are below.

Today's Board: Five Names, Zero Hedging

Here is the top of each panel on today's sheet, straight from the free page:

A quick decoder, kept short because tonight is about the picks: Proj FP is median projected FanDuel points, Own% is projected field ownership, Value is points per $1K of salary, top-150 exposure is how often a player appears in the 150 highest sim-ROI lineups, and Lev% measures how much more often the Sims want a player than the field is projected to play him. Leverage is where tournament separation comes from, as the tournament strategy guide covers in depth.

The row worth sitting with is the whole exposure column read against the leverage column, because they are the same list twice. When the 150 best sim-ROI lineups and the biggest field-versus-engine gaps agree on five names in identical order, the Sims are not offering you a menu. They are telling you where the slate's ROI concentrated, and the field's favorite play is not in it. Caminero at 63.3% exposure against 27.4% ownership is the sharpest version of that gap: the engine wants him in nearly two of every three top lineups while just over a quarter of the field arrives.

Half The Field Lands On One Arm, The Sims Land On Another

FanDuel rosters a single pitcher, so a projections panel that is all starting arms is really one decision, and tonight it is the loudest decision on the board. Skubal leads the projections at 39.09, more than five points clear of the next arm, and his 50.0% projected ownership is the highest ownership figure on today's sheet. The resume is exactly what half a field chasing an ace looks like: a 2.81 ERA with 122 strikeouts against just 16 walks and a 0.92 WHIP this season, home against Kansas City in his second start since the deadline trade sent him to the Dodgers. Nobody is wrong to like him. The board's point is subtler: Skubal does not appear on the top-150 exposure panel, whose fifth row cuts off at 35.3%, so the Sims cap him meaningfully below the field's 50.0%. At that ownership, his wins are shared wins.

Detmers is where the engine actually spends its pitcher slot. He sits second in projections at 33.83, second in exposure at 46.0%, and second in leverage at 34.5%, while his projected ownership falls below the panel's 14.9% cutoff, which makes his exposure at least three times the field's rate. The season line explains both halves of that bet: a 4.12 ERA is the risk, but 150 strikeouts in 129 innings and a 10.47 K/9 are the ceiling, and strikeouts are what a one-pitcher roster is buying. His opponent tonight is MacKenzie Gore's Rangers, which means the projections panel's second and fourth arms face each other in Anaheim, one game listing two answers to one question. The exposure panel settles the duel without apology, Detmers at 46.0% and Gore absent, and Gore's 4.55 ERA beside Detmers' strikeout rate is most of the reason. Milwaukee's Logan Henderson, fifth at 27.99, is the deep pivot: a 2.70 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP, the best marks of the five arms on the panel, plus 62 strikeouts against 10 walks across his 10 starts, in a sample the Sims clearly want more of before pushing him onto the exposure panel. Full slate-long pitcher projections, ownership, and stack data live in the MLB DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub.

Tonight's pitcher call: Detmers in tournaments, on the board's own math: near-Skubal projection, a fraction of the ownership, and the engine's second-largest exposure anywhere. Skubal is the cash-game arm and a fine tournament play in builds where you want your risk in the bats instead.

The Tampa Bay Row Is Nearly Double The Next Stack

Now the arm I promised. The Rays' 18.7% stack row, nearly double Arizona's 10.0% in second, exists because the Athletics are starting Jacob Lopez, a left-hander carrying a 5.64 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP with 43 walks and 13 home runs allowed in 75 innings. A lefty who hands out baserunners and home runs is what a stack turns into crooked numbers, and the board names the Rays it wants doing the converting. Caminero, a right-handed bat with the platoon edge, is the centerpiece with 33 home runs and a .916 OPS through 117 games, and his three-panel line, second in ownership, first in exposure, first in leverage, makes him the only hitter on the sheet who leads two panels at once. Diaz is the quieter half of the pair and my favorite fit on this specific site: he is hitting .298 from the right side with 43 walks against 73 strikeouts, and FanDuel pays a walk 3 points, the same as a single, so his on-base profile loses nothing in translation. He is one of just two players, alongside Carroll, to appear on four of the six panels: fifth in ownership at 14.9%, second in value at 4.25, fourth in exposure at 38.7%, fourth in leverage at 23.1%.

The stack panel's next three rows deserve their honest sentence each. Texas at 6.7% ties Atlanta at 6.7%, and the Rangers' row doubles as correlation for Detmers fades, since those bats face him; that is the two-sided risk of the Anaheim game, and it is also why I keep Rangers exposure out of my Detmers builds, correlation cuts both ways, as the correlation strategy guide explains. Houston at 5.3% rounds out the column, the thin end of a panel that put its conviction at the top.

Arizona Is The Same Bet At A Discount

The Diamondbacks' 10.0% row is the board's second act, and it travels with its own pitcher. Corbin Carroll is on four panels, third in ownership at 19.6%, fifth in value at 4.19, third in exposure at 44.7%, third in leverage at 24.4%, with 16 home runs and 16 steals from the left side against Colorado right-hander Gabriel Hughes, who has thrown just 29⅔ innings this season. Ketel Marte, a switch hitter with 20 home runs, holds the fifth row of both sim panels at 35.3% exposure and 20.2% leverage. Two Arizona bats on both engine panels is the same shape as the Tampa Bay pair at lower volume, and the row comes with a bonus the Rays cannot offer: Michael Soroka, third in projections at 33.20 off a 3.07 ERA in 82 innings, starts for Arizona in the very game the stack row targets. On a one-pitcher site, your starter and his own lineup rise together, so Soroka plus the Diamondbacks bats is the slate's cleanest double-correlation, the stack scoring runs while its own arm banks the win. He is also the pitcher answer for anyone who wants off the Skubal-Detmers question entirely.

The Value Column Is Buying Prices, Not Bats

Carson Williams leading the value panel at 4.70 is the row that teaches you what the column measures. Williams is hitting .091 through 14 games with no home runs, so his 4.70 points per $1K is salary math doing all of the lifting, a bargain price attached to a lineup the Sims love. That is not a knock; it is the instruction. Williams is the salary-relief route to a fourth Rays slot when Caminero, Diaz, and a third bat have eaten the budget, a punt with a stack's correlation behind him rather than a projection you are chasing. Read the rest of the column the same way. Lawrence Butler at 4.23 is priced off a .202 average with 7 home runs, and no sim panel seconds him, so he is a price, not a play, against Tampa Bay's Freddy Peralta. Gunnar Henderson at 4.22 is the interesting middle case: the average sits at .213, but 18 home runs of thump against Dean Kremer in Minnesota make him the one-off I will actually use when a build needs a cheap left-handed swing. Diaz at 4.25 and Carroll at 4.19 are the column's real signal, the only two value rows the engine also plays heavily, which is the combination the panel exists to surface.

Ohtani is the name conspicuous by absence. He sits fourth in ownership at 18.6% with 26 home runs and a .937 OPS, and he appears on no other panel: exposure below the 35.3% cutoff, leverage below 20.2%. The matchup explains the engine's shrug, a left-handed bat against Kansas City left-hander Noah Cameron. FanDuel's flatter scoring already compresses what a fade earns you, so I am not making an anti-Ohtani stand; I am just not spending leverage where the board says there is none. The FanDuel and DraftKings differences explain why the four-batter cap and one-pitcher roster reshape these calls relative to the five-man site.

Worked Example: Caminero's Row Into A FanDuel Build

One row into an entry for tonight. Caminero's full line: 27.4% ownership, and on the two panels the Sims rank outright, firsts on both at 63.3% exposure and 35.6% leverage. Decision by decision:

1. Lock Caminero and Diaz together. First and fourth on both engine panels, both right-handed against Lopez's 43 walks, and together they are half of the four-batter cap FanDuel allows from one team.
2. Fill the last two Rays slots from the full projections. The free sheet names three Rays across its panels; Williams at 4.70 is the printed salary-relief option, and the complete stack order in the DataHub tables linked above decides whether the fourth bat is thump or another cheap on-base piece.
3. Set the pitcher before the one-offs. Detmers conflicts with nothing in a Rays build, and the MLB DFS Sims guide shows how the engine grades an arm across the whole outcome distribution, which is exactly the Skubal-versus-Detmers argument in one chart.
4. Spend the four remaining bat slots on the board's other columns. Carroll and Marte arrive as a ready-made two-bat mini-stack with Soroka correlation available behind them, and Henderson at 4.22 is the value one-off that fits after a Skubal-sized salary.
5. Recheck at lock. A 50.0% ownership projection on one arm means late pitcher news would reshuffle the whole field; the late swap guide covers reacting without breaking your correlation.

Every number in that build comes out of the same engine. The Stokastic Sims play the slate tens of thousands of times with correlation intact, so a Caminero homer and a Diaz run scored land together the way they would in the game. Stokastic's Ownership Projections run through the engine as a distribution rather than a single guess, which is how a leverage panel can exist at all, and the lineup pool is ranked by simulated ROI with the top 150 becoming the exposure panel you read above. The cheat sheet itself is free every day, and no code discounts it, because there is nothing to discount. Code CHEAT takes 15% off your first week or month of the paid Stokastic MLB DFS packages behind it, where the complete projections, Ownership Projections, Boom/Bust tables and the Sims themselves live.

Start with 15% off your first week or month with code CHEAT.

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FAQ: Tonight's Slate Questions

Is Tarik Skubal worth 50.0% ownership? He is worth rostering and not worth that ownership, which are different claims. The 2.81 ERA and 122-to-16 strikeout-to-walk line justify the projection lead; the exposure panel's silence at 35.3% and below says the Sims think half the field is overpaying for shared upside. Cash games, yes. Tournaments, I want Detmers' 34.5% leverage or the bats.

Should I stack Tampa Bay or Arizona? Tampa Bay is the majority stack at 18.7%, nearly double Arizona's row, with the leverage panel's first and fourth names against Lopez's 43 walks in 75 innings. Arizona at 10.0% is the same two-bats-on-every-panel shape at lower ownership, and Soroka on the same side of the game is a correlation bonus the Rays cannot match. I weight Tampa Bay and make Arizona my second tranche rather than choosing.

Is Carson Williams' 4.70 value real when he is hitting .091? The number is real and it is measuring his price, not his bat. Value is projected points per $1K of salary, so a cheap salary inside the board's top stack can top the column even with a .264 OPS. Play him as the fourth Rays slot when the build needs salary, never as a standalone.

Which cheap bat do I use outside the stacks? Gunnar Henderson at 4.22. The .213 average is why he is cheap; 18 home runs and a left-handed swing against Dean Kremer are why he is usable, and unlike Butler at 4.23, whose case is price alone, Henderson brings real power to a one-off slot. In builds carrying Skubal's salary, he is usually my first fill.

Two Dugouts And A Pitcher Slot

Some boards scatter their conviction; this one stacked all of it into two dugouts and one arm, so my entry split follows the concentration with actual numbers on it. Half of my entries carry the Caminero-Diaz core with Detmers, the full expression of the board's leverage. Three in ten pair Skubal with those same Rays bats, chalk arm plus leverage stack, for the builds where I want the board's projection leader and my risk taken elsewhere. The remaining two in ten go to the Arizona double-correlation, Soroka with Carroll and Marte, and the callback worth ending on is the one the exposure column opened with: the Sims put the same five names on both of their panels tonight, and every one of those splits is just a different way of agreeing with them. The only value-column name I am deliberately light on is Butler, the price play no sim panel seconded. You must be 21+ to play. Tomorrow's board will scatter its conviction somewhere new, and that is the point of reading it fresh every day.