FanDuel NFL DFS Cheat Sheet Week 5: Warren Tops 3 Panels
By Sam Smith
October 7, 2026
The 11-game Week 5 main slate on Sunday, October 11 is a running back board, and Jaylen Warren is the only name that tops three of its panels. He is first in value at 2.70, first in top-150 exposure at 82% and first in leverage at 34%, while the field owns him at 48%. The quarterback seat goes to Jayden Daniels, and the two Minnesota pieces run without one.
The Quick Answer
Play Warren and Aaron Jones Sr. over the field: 48% and 35.3% owned against 82% and 68.7% top-150 exposure, first and second on the leverage panel at 34% and 32.7%. Keep Jahmyr Gibbs (66.1% owned, 79.3% exposure) rather than fading him. Trim Trey McBride, the field's fourth-most-popular play at 30.9% and the only top-five ownership name that appears on no other panel. Leaving Warren out means betting against the one row where the Sims and the value panel agree.
The Build
FanDuel plays nine seats: quarterback, two running backs, three receivers, a tight end, a FLEX and a defense.
| Seat | Player | Why |
|---|---|---|
| QB | Jayden Daniels | Fourth in projection at 18.0, outside the field's ownership top five |
| RB | Jaylen Warren | First in value, exposure and leverage |
| RB | Aaron Jones Sr. | Second in value and leverage, 68.7% exposure |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | Fourth in leverage at 17.4%, the Washington pass-catcher |
| WR | open | No second receiver made the board |
| WR | open | No third receiver made the board |
| TE | T.J. Hockenson | Fifth in leverage at 15.9% |
| FLEX | Jahmyr Gibbs | The third of the board's three top exposures, all backs |
| DEF | Commanders | 40% exposure, 24.5% leverage, third in value at 2.41 |
Two receiver seats are genuinely open: the board names no second or third receiver, so those are the seats where this sheet has no edge to hand you. Fill them from the 1 p.m. games using the DataHub, and the late-swap problem stays confined to the Gibbs FLEX.
The Week 5 Board
| Panel | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top Projections (Proj FP) | Gibbs 24.0 | Goff 19.7 | Warren 18.1 | Daniels 18.0 | Brissett 17.9 |
| Highest Ownership (Own%) | Gibbs 66.1% | Warren 48% | Jones Sr. 35.3% | McBride 30.9% | Wilson 28.6% |
| Top Values (Value) | Warren 2.70 | Jones Sr. 2.64 | Brissett 2.63 | Goff 2.43 | Commanders 2.41 |
| Top Exposures (Exp%) | Warren 82% | Gibbs 79.3% | Jones Sr. 68.7% | Commanders 40% | Wilson 37.3% |
| Leverage Plays (Lev%) | Warren 34% | Jones Sr. 32.7% | Commanders 24.5% | Diggs 17.4% | Hockenson 15.9% |
| QB+2 Stacks (Stack%) | Murray 10% | Brissett 9.3% | Daniels 8.7% | Goff 8.7% | Love 2.7% |
Reading the panels: Own% is what the field is projected to roster. Exp% is top-150 exposure, how often a player lands in the 150 lineups with the highest simulated ROI. Lev% is the gap between the two, so a high number means the Sims want a player the field does not. Value is projected points per $1,000 of salary.
Stokastic Sims build this slate tens of thousands of times with correlations priced into every stack and ownership modeled as a distribution, then keep the 150 highest-ROI lineups. A back the Sims keep in 82% of that pool, a hair above the 79.3% they give Gibbs, while the field owns Warren at 48% and Gibbs at 66.1%, is the loudest row on the board.
Board as of the Tuesday evening Sims run, October 6. Ownership moves all week and the DataHub numbers are the live ones.
The Stack Call
The Sims' most-built stack is Kyler Murray's at 10%, and I am going the other way.
Daniels is built less often, 8.7%, but the field has him outside its ownership top five, so the same lineup costs less in ownership. He gets Diggs and the Commanders defense as the Washington side. No Giants piece made the board, so there is no bring-back to force and the freed seats go to one-offs.
Minnesota runs naked, meaning Jones Sr. and Hockenson without their quarterback. They are the two Minnesota names on the leverage panel and I want both of those numbers rather than the correlation that a quarterback would add. On FanDuel that is the shorter-stack build the scoring rewards.
Half PPR Empties The Value Panel Of Receivers
On FanDuel a catch pays half a point, so the value panel holds two backs, two quarterbacks and a defense, and not one receiver. Michael Wilson (28.6% owned, 37.3% exposure) is the only wideout the field is chasing.
Diggs is fourth on the leverage panel at 17.4% and absent from the ownership top five, which makes him the leverage receiver by default on a site that pays half for a catch.
Carolina and Kansas City are on bye, and the Bills and Rams play Monday night, so they are off the main slate too. That left the field fewer places to go and it went to Gibbs: 66.1% on one back, off a 24.0 projection clear of the next name at 19.7, with no receiver in value to pull it elsewhere. Fading him is the wrong lever. Flatter scoring with no bonuses compresses what a Gibbs fade can win, and the Sims want him more than the field does anyway. McBride is where I trim.
Late Swaps And The 4:25 Games
Gibbs, Jared Goff, Jacoby Brissett, McBride and Michael Wilson are all in the Lions-Cardinals game at 4:25 p.m. One inactive report moves five board names at once, and those inactives are not posted when the 1 p.m. slate locks.
In the build above only the Gibbs FLEX is still open at that point. If he sits, the swap is Wilson, the other 4:25 p.m. name on the exposure panel. Leave that seat a path and keep the rest of the roster in the early window.
The cheat sheet is free. Code CHEAT takes 10% off your first payment on paid Stokastic NFL DFS packages, which open the full Sims, the Ownership Projections and the simulated-ROI lineup pool behind these panels.
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