DraftKings NFL DFS Cheat Sheet: Week 3 Picks and Stacks

Jahmyr Gibbs and Kenneth Walker III lead ownership and top-150 exposure on the free DraftKings NFL DFS cheat sheet from Stokastic.com for the 13-game Week 3 main slate on Sunday, Sept. 27. The running back chalk is right, and the rest of the leverage panel is one Panthers receiver, one tight end and a defense.

The Quick Answer

Pay for Gibbs ($8,800) and Walker ($7,400) through 39.7% and 34.6% ownership. The Sims keep them in 62.0% and 61.3% of the top-150 lineups. Get different with Jalen Coker, Mark Andrews and the Bills defense, the leverage rows that are not chalk. Underweight Amon-Ra St. Brown (19.7%), Parker Washington (18.1%) and Travis Kelce (16.2%), top five in ownership and absent from every other panel. Stack Bryce Young. The row I keep coming back to is Coker, and he carries a Friday caveat below.

The Week 3 Board

The Stokastic Sims play the slate tens of thousands of times against a modeled ownership distribution and rank lineups by simulated ROI. Walker shows why that beats a median: fourth in projection at 22.2, second in exposure at 61.3%, third on the leverage panel at 26.4%, because 34.6% ownership sits far below where the ROI-ranked pool wants him.

Who To Play And Who To Fade

The value panel is five quarterbacks at 3.4 or 3.5. No cheap pass catcher makes it, so the catch-volume bargain a full-PPR site rewards has to come from the exposure panel, where Dalton Schultz sits. Andrews ($4,400) is the tight end at 46.7% top-150 exposure and 31.0% leverage; Kelce ($4,500) is the fade. The Bills defense ($2,800) is the board's only defense, fifth in leverage at 17.1%, and the full projections show why: 7.8 projected points at 4.9% ownership, the cheapest row on the leverage panel.

Three weeks in, the projection column rests on two games of snaps and ranks players alone. The exposure and leverage panels price each player against the field, which is why Walker and Andrews rank higher there. Coker ($5,500) is first in leverage at 33.1% and fourth in exposure at 45.3%. The Sims take him ahead of Tetairoa McMillan ($6,000), who projects 14.5 to Coker's 14.4 for $500 more. ESPN's Friday injury report lists Coker questionable, so recheck after Sunday inactives. If he sits, the Young stack loses its leverage piece and I move to the Lamar Jackson stack (6.7%), with Andrews already in the build.

Worked Example: Young Stack, Tight End FLEX

Young ($5,600) leads the QB+2 stack panel at 10.7%. Coker is my first piece, and DraftKings' 3-point bonuses at 300 passing and 100 receiving yards pay both on the same catches. The second piece comes from the full projections behind the free sheet, McMillan at $6,000. A bring-back earns a spot when the other side has a board row. Cleveland's only row is Deshaun Watson, a second quarterback I cannot roster, so none.

Add Gibbs, Walker, Andrews and the Bills defense: seven spots cost $40,500. The FLEX is a real decision because the exposure panel's top five is two running backs, two tight ends and one receiver, no third back, so it goes to Schultz ($4,200), whom the Sims keep in 26.7% of the top-150 lineups at 12.5% ownership. It gives up a third receiver's ceiling for the cheapest skill slot on the board. That is $44,700 for eight spots, and $5,300 buys the last receiver. Jake Hari's Week 3 DFS picks build the main slate around the Ravens-Cowboys game in Rio instead, Lamar Jackson at 4.5% there with Andrews inside the stack.

The free sheet is the preview. The Coker-over-McMillan price check and the Bills defense at 4.9% come from the full projections and Ownership Projections that the paid Stokastic NFL DFS packages open with the Stokastic Sims. Code CHEAT takes 10% off your first payment on monthly plans.

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