DraftKings MMA DFS Cheat Sheet: Nurmagomedov Vs. Song Picks
By Sam Smith
August 28, 2026
Saturday morning's UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song card in Shanghai (main card 6 a.m. ET, Aug. 29) produced a lopsided free cheat sheet from the Stokastic MMA Sims: Umar Nurmagomedov leads five of its six panels. The question is not who to build around; it is who joins him, and I will walk his row into a build below.
The Quick Answer
Eat the biggest chalk. Nurmagomedov (116.0 projected DraftKings points, 40.7% owned) still carries 73.3% top-150 exposure and board-best 32.3% leverage — the Sims want him at nearly double the field's dose. Spend your differentiation underneath him: Levi Rodrigues Jr. (44.0% exposure, 21.3% leverage) and Cam Nelson (38.7%, 10.3%), and trim Ding Meng and Xiao Long, chalk the field buys but the Sims skip. The full board and the build are below.
Today's Board For Nurmagomedov Vs. Song
| Panel | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highest Salaries | Rei Tsuruya $9,700 | Bilal Hasan $9,600 | Umar Nurmagomedov $9,500 | Kai Asakura $9,400 | Lawrence Lui $9,100 |
| Top Projections (Proj FP) | Umar Nurmagomedov 116.0 | Bilal Hasan 92.7 | Rei Tsuruya 90.7 | Kai Asakura 89.5 | Lawrence Lui 80.2 |
| Highest Ownership (Own%) | Umar Nurmagomedov 40.7% | Ding Meng 29.0% | Cam Nelson 27.7% | Xiao Long 27.4% | Su Sumudaerji 27.1% |
| Top Values (Value) | Umar Nurmagomedov 12.21 | Bilal Hasan 9.66 | Kai Asakura 9.53 | Rei Tsuruya 9.35 | Yadong Song 8.84 |
| Top Exposures (Exp%) | Umar Nurmagomedov 73.3% | Levi Rodrigues Jr. 44.0% | Cam Nelson 38.7% | Su Sumudaerji 30.7% | Yan Xiaonan 28.7% |
| Leverage Plays (Lev%) | Umar Nurmagomedov 32.3% | Levi Rodrigues Jr. 21.3% | Cam Nelson 10.3% | Yan Xiaonan 4.4% | Yadong Song 3.2% |
The tournament row is the exposure panel's second line. Rodrigues Jr. appears in 44.0% of the 150 highest sim-ROI lineups yet never cracks the ownership panel, so the field rosters him less often than Su Sumudaerji's 27.1%. That gap is his 21.3% leverage, the cheapest edge on the card.
The Chalk You Eat And The Chalk You Fade
The five-round main event against Yadong Song is why Nurmagomedov's 116.0 projection sits 23.3 points clear of Bilal Hasan's 92.7, and at $9,500, only third on the salary panel, it prices out to a slate-best 12.21 value. The Stokastic Sims play the card tens of thousands of times and still land him in 73.3% of the top-150 pool against 40.7% modeled ownership; when the leverage panel points at the most-owned fighter on the slate, fading him is the square move. The real fades sit one line down: Ding Meng (29.0% owned) and Xiao Long (27.4%) are the field's second- and fourth-favorite plays and appear nowhere on the exposure or leverage panels. Song himself makes the value panel at 8.84 but carries just 3.2% leverage, so the Sims' read on the main event is emphatic.
Worked Example: Nurmagomedov's Row To A Build
- The spine: Nurmagomedov at $9,500 leaves $40,500 for five slots, about $8,100 each.
- The leverage seat: Rodrigues Jr., who never appears on the salary panel, pairs the board's top two exposure rows in one lineup.
- The trim: Cam Nelson (38.7% exposure) over Ding Meng at nearly identical ownership — same field cost, Sims-approved.
- The last seats: shop the full card in the UFC DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub, not just five rows per panel.
The free sheet is the skim of the paid engine: full-card projections, Ownership Projections modeled as a distribution rather than a single number, and the complete ROI-ranked lineup pool the top-150 exposure column is cut from. The sheet itself costs nothing on any card; code ALL15 takes 15% off the first payment on the paid Stokastic DFS packages behind it.
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Where My Entries Land
Every entry I make Saturday starts with the two names the exposure panel refuses to let go of: Nurmagomedov and Rodrigues Jr. The last-seat tiebreaker is Yan Xiaonan, 28.7% exposure but just 4.4% leverage — real, already priced. If the field insists on Ding Meng and Xiao Long, my tournament builds take the other side of that trade. 21+.