DraftKings PGA DFS Cheat Sheet: Sims, Projections And Ownership

The Stokastic Sims ran this week's BMW Championship tens of thousands of times, and one golfer owns the two free cheat sheet panels I build tournament rosters around: Nicolai Højgaard, first in top-150 exposure at 39.3% and leverage at 25.7%, yet absent from Bellerive's five highest-owned golfers. By the end I will fit him and the board's other 39.3% exposure golfer into one $50,000 roster.

The Quick Answer

Play Højgaard, pay Scottie Scheffler at $14,400, and stay underweight the Ludvig Aberg and Cameron Young ownership chalk. Every number below comes off this week's free board from the full Stokastic Sims run. The cap math fitting both in one lineup is below.

This Week's Board: Pay Scheffler, Play Højgaard

Scheffler projects 90.7, a 12.1-point gap over Rory McIlroy's 78.6 that dwarfs the $3,000 salary gap between them. Bellerive is a par 70 that can stretch to 7,500 yards, built for big hitters and elite iron play: exactly the profile behind that separation. Yet the field leaves him fourth in ownership at 19.3%. That is why he sits second in leverage at 19.7%: rare chalk worth being overweight, per this week's PGA DFS picks.

My fades sit atop the ownership panel. Aberg (22.5%) and Young (21.9%) lead it, yet neither cracks the top five in exposure or leverage; Aberg's 76.8 projection is fifth, and Young's projection does not crack the top five at all. Only 22 of the 50 are locked into East Lake, and Stokastic's Ownership Projections show the field buying that bubble drama at the top of this panel.

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The Worked Example: Fitting Both Under The $50K Cap

My Scheffler builds leave $35,600 for five golfers, a $7,120 average. Højgaard is why they close: absent from the salary panel's five spots, he costs no more than the $9,900 Xander Schauffele that ends it, leaving at least $25,700 for the last four slots, a $6,425 average even in the worst case.

Value Plays That Fit The Cap

The value panel funds the rest, and Kristoffer Reitan is its double play, second in value at 10.34 with 29.3% exposure and 16.7% leverage; Ryan Fox pairs the top value score, 10.40, with 14.0% leverage. Since this 50-man playoff field has no cut, a three-leverage-play build carries none of the usual missed-cut risk. The construction shapes I lean on live in the PGA DFS strategy guide.