AFC Championship 2026: 8 AI Models Back The Dynasty Base Rate
By Jake Hari
July 28, 2026
The Quick Answer
The market makes Buffalo its 15¢ favorite with Kansas City drifting at 11¢. The panel's revised blend calls the top a dead heat: Kansas City 16%, Buffalo 16%, Baltimore 13%, with four seats independently citing Kansas City's decade of AFC title-game appearances as a base rate the 11¢ price underrates. Full 16-team board below.
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The Market
Kalshi's AFC Championship market (event KXNFLAFCCHAMP-27, ~$2.6M traded) settles on the team that wins the AFC title game — the conference's Super Bowl LXI representative. All 16 AFC teams are listed; the card carried the full list and settlement rule.
Two timestamps: panel verdicts generated the morning of July 28, 2026, price-blind; prices fetched from exchange candlesticks the same morning.
How The Panel Read It
Four seats topped Kansas City, three topped Buffalo, and one made New England its surprise pick, the widest top-pick spread of the NFL boards.
"The dynasty base rate is the single most informative number on this board... the roster and coaching continuity that produced it are intact." (Kimi K3) [Editor's note: quote condensed; for the record, New England's 2011-2018 run of eight straight AFC title games exceeds Kansas City's current streak.]
The Revision Round
Each model read the other seven's anonymized reasoning and could revise with a stated reason.
"Moved KC from 12% to 14%: peers correctly pointed out the dynasty base rate deserves more respect than my round-1 number gave it." (Claude Fable)
"Revised KC down and elevated Buffalo, New England, and Denver. Peers highlighted KC's aging core on the lines, which my round-1 number underweighted." (Gemini 3.1 Pro)
"Forecasters surfaced specific evidence about Denver's defense and Bo Nix's trajectory that my round-1 tail did not respect." (DeepSeek V4)
Where The Machines Split From The Money
Kansas City: market 11¢, AI blend 16%. Even with the top a dead heat, this is the board's biggest panel-over-market gap. The seats' shared reasoning: markets chronically price the Chiefs' down years and never their base rate.
Buffalo: market 15¢, AI blend 16%. Panel and market land within a point; the market favorite is fairly priced by machine lights.
Los Angeles Chargers: market 12¢, AI blend 6%. The reverse gap: the market prices them with the contenders; the panel sees a tier break.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
- New England (9¢, blend 8%): one seat's outright top pick on a second-year-leap argument the revision round spread to other seats.
- Denver (9¢, blend 8%): the revision round's riser: defense-first conference winners are more common than the market's tail suggests.
- Cincinnati (9¢, blend 9%): the panel's pick for the price most likely to look silly in hindsight, in either direction.
The Board
| Outcome | Kalshi | AI Blend (after revision) |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 15¢ | 16% |
| Kansas City | 11¢ | 16% |
| Baltimore | 12¢ | 13% |
| Houston | 10¢ | 9% |
| Cincinnati | 9¢ | 9% |
| Denver | 9¢ | 8% |
| New England | 9¢ | 8% |
| Los Angeles C | 12¢ | 6% |
| Jacksonville | 7¢ | 3% |
| Pittsburgh | 3¢ | 3% |
| Miami | 1¢ | 3% |
| Indianapolis | 4¢ | 2% |
| Cleveland | 1¢ | 1.4% |
| Las Vegas | 2¢ | 1.4% |
| New York J | 1¢ | 1.2% |
| Tennessee | 2¢ | 1.0% |
Every Seat's Round-1 Number
The per-model split before the revision round. On a phone this table scrolls sideways; the board above carries the headline numbers, which average the seats that returned revised round-2 estimates.
| Outcome | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | 16% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 11% | 15% | 13% | 18% |
| Kansas City | 14% | 12% | 10% | 15% | 18% | 25% | 20% | 21% |
| Baltimore | 16% | 12% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 12% | 15% |
| Houston | 8% | 7% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 12% |
| Cincinnati | 10% | 7% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 9% | 16% |
| Denver | 6% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 1.0% |
| New England | 3% | 9% | 16% | 2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 4% | 0.5% |
| Los Angeles C | 8% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| Jacksonville | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 1.5% |
| Pittsburgh | 4% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1.5% |
| Miami | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% |
| Indianapolis | 2% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1.0% | 3% | 2% |
| Cleveland | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0.5% |
| Las Vegas | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 3% | 0.2% |
| New York J | 0.3% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 0.5% |
| Tennessee | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 3% | 0.2% |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: GPT 83% on 1,693 graded calls · Claude Fable 85% on 331 graded calls · Claude Opus 86% on 382 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 84% on 363 graded calls · Gemini 85% on 1,718 graded calls · GLM 80% on 1,874 graded calls · Kimi 84% on 1,863 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 1,877 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated July 28, 2026, price-blind from live fetched data. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
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The Shape Of The Distribution
A dead heat at 16% apiece with Baltimore at 13% is the panel calling the AFC a true three-horse race, with the market's only real error being how cheap it lets Kansas City sit. Companion board: the NFC Championship verdict; award board: the NFL MVP verdict. Both conference boards grade in January; the scoreboard keeps the receipts.