NFL Receiving Yards Leader Odds: The Cluster Broke
By Jake Hari
August 5, 2026 · Updated September 24, 2026
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the favorite now, and the three names that were tied with him in September are gone. The way to read a season-long receiving title in Week 3 is the way the Sims read a Sunday prop: targets first, yards second, price last. On that reading the defending champion is the only listed receiver whose target share, yardage and price all point the same way, Ja'Marr Chase and Puka Nacua have lost the first two, and the second-place receiver in the league has no contract at all.
A Yes contract pays $1 if that player leads the league in regular-season receiving yards, so the price in cents reads as the chance.
Smith-Njigba Broke Away
Smith-Njigba leads the league with 277 yards on 22 targets, and Drew Lock threw almost all of them. Sam Darnold left the opener with a glute strain, the backup has run the offense since, and the receiver who won last year's title on volume has picked up where he left off. Seattle is 2-0.
The contract asks 23 cents against a 15-cent bid, the widest gap on the board. Buyers and sellers agree he is the favorite, not on how big. Darnold was limited Wednesday and is questionable for Sunday at Washington, and the props read says a healthy Darnold raises the ceiling without touching the floor, because the target share is the same with either quarterback.
Chase And Nacua Fell Out
Chase has 87 yards. His knee cost him no games; the targets did. Cincinnati is 2-0 and has barely needed to throw, and the contract that asked 14 cents in September asks 6.
Nacua has one game and 74 yards. He missed Monday night with groin soreness, did not practice Wednesday, and is questionable for Sunday night at Denver; Sean McVay said he could practice later in the week. He asks 9 cents. One week without Nacua went to Adams, and his price is still 2 cents. Davante Adams is fourth in the league after a 195-yard Monday night, and September's read on this page, that the market had decided whose yards the Rams' were, lasted exactly one week.
St. Brown Holds Second
Amon-Ra St. Brown asks 10 cents on 209 yards, and his 19 catches lead the league. CeeDee Lamb asks 7, most of his yards from one afternoon against Washington. Justin Jefferson is the name the market gave up on: his price has fallen from 14 to 4 since a 55-yard game against Chicago.
The Leaders Nobody Can Buy
Twenty-six players are listed and there is no field contract, so if anyone else leads the league, every row resolves No. After two weeks the second- and third-place receivers are both unlisted: Chris Olave, the top target of the quarterback who leads the league in passing, and Dalton Kincaid, a tight end in Buffalo. Jalen Coker is unlisted too and ahead of every listed name but three. The panel's single largest number in August was 12.2 percent on this outcome, and it is the number on the page that looks best right now.
What The Panel Got Right
The eight models ran on August 3, price-blind, and have not been re-run. Their first name, Smith-Njigba, leads the league. Their fourth, St. Brown, holds the second price. Their field is the strongest call on the page. Their second and third names, Chase and Nacua, are the two who fell out, and their 0.6 percent on Adams is the worst number here after a 195-yard Monday night. A.J. Brown, whose price doubled in September, caught 3 passes in the opener and went on injured reserve on September 13; the contract asks 1 cent. Nothing gets rewritten. The ledger grades every number against the final leaderboard.
The Board
Prices are the ask on the Yes contract (KXLEADERNFLRYDS-27), pulled the morning of September 24, 2026. Yards are through Week 2 from ESPN with the game-by-game split; the panel column is unchanged from August 3.
| Player | Through Week 2 | Wk 1 / Wk 2 | Yes price | Panel (Aug 3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 277 yds · 17 rec · 22 tgt | 122 / 155 | 23¢ | 11.5% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 209 yds · 19 rec | 67 / 142 | 10¢ | 6.7% |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 74 yds · 1 game · questionable | 74 / DNP | 9¢ | 10.6% |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 197 yds · 13 rec | 44 / 153 | 7¢ | 3.4% |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | 87 yds · 9 rec · 13 tgt | 12 / 75 | 6¢ | 10.8% |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 147 yds · 11 rec | 92 / 55 | 4¢ | 6.1% |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 221 yds · 11 rec | 26 / 195 | 2¢ | 0.6% |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | 150 yds · 1 game · questionable | 150 / DNP | 2¢ | 2.7% |
| Jaylen Waddle (DEN) | 140 yds · 9 rec | 2 / 138 | 2¢ | 1.4% |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 136 yds · 11 rec | 79 / 57 | 2¢ | 2.0% |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 117 yds · 8 rec | 82 / 35 | 2¢ | 1.5% |
| Mike Evans (SF) | 103 yds · 9 rec · questionable | 49 / 54 | 2¢ | 0.5% |
| Drake London (ATL) | 80 yds · 6 rec | 29 / 51 | 2¢ | 2.9% |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 75 yds · 1 game · questionable | 75 / DNP | 2¢ | 3.3% |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 70 yds · 7 rec · questionable | 69 / 1 | 2¢ | 3.9% |
| George Pickens (DAL) | 68 yds · 9 rec | 28 / 40 | 2¢ | 3.9% |
| Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) | 176 yds · 10 rec | 75 / 101 | 1¢ | 2.9% |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 154 yds · 8 rec | 59 / 95 | 1¢ | 1.2% |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 95 yds · 5 rec | 52 / 43 | 1¢ | 1.1% |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | 80 yds · 6 rec | 40 / 40 | 1¢ | 1.5% |
| Emeka Egbuka (TB) | 79 yds · 8 rec | 63 / 16 | 1¢ | 2.4% |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 67 yds · 8 rec | 40 / 27 | 1¢ | 1.2% |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 36 yds · 5 rec | 11 / 25 | 1¢ | 1.4% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 33 yds · 1 rec | 33 / 0 | 1¢ | 1.0% |
| A.J. Brown (NE) | 26 yds · 1 game · injured reserve | 26 / IR | 1¢ | 3.0% |
| Brock Bowers (LV, TE) | no games · questionable | DNP / DNP | 1¢ | 0.5% |
| Any unlisted leader | Olave 268 · Kincaid 225 · Coker 204 | 182 / 86 (Olave) | no contract | 12.2% |
More live boards from the same panel: NFL rushing yards leader 2026, where Walker is the favorite · Fantasy WR1 2026 · NFL MVP 2027
What Decides It Next
Seattle at Washington on Sunday afternoon, where Darnold's status decides whether the favorite keeps stacking yards with Lock or gets his starter back. Las Vegas at New Orleans, where every Olave target is the field's case. The Jets at Detroit for St. Brown. And the Rams at Denver on Sunday night: a Nacua who practices Thursday or Friday takes his yards back, and a Nacua who does not gives Adams a third week as the only option. The same target-share read runs on every Sunday receiving line in Stokastic Prop Tools. At 23 cents the favorite is priced for a full season, so size it like a season-long hold.
Every number in this piece lands in our backtest ledger the day it is generated and gets graded against the real season-ending leaderboard on the public model verdict scoreboard.
Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Verdicts generated August 3, 2026, price-blind. Prices as of September 24, 2026, quoted as the ask on the Yes contract. Panel: ChatGPT, Claude Fable, Claude Opus, Claude Sonnet, Gemini 3.1 Pro, GLM 5.2, Kimi K3, and DeepSeek V4, all eight revised in an anonymized cross-read; the blend is the simple mean of the eight revised estimates. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money.
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