Sim 371 of 10,000: Dallas Trails 32-6 And Wins 36-35

Thirty-Two To Six

Green Bay scored on its second drive, a 3-yard touchdown pass from Love to Matthew Golden at 8:58 of the first quarter, and Trey Smack added a 24-yard field goal at 0:51 for 10-0. Smack hit from 55 at 5:17 of the second, and MarShawn Lloyd ran it in from the 1 at 1:12, the extra point missed, 19-0. Brandon Aubrey's 49-yarder at 0:31 got Dallas on the board, and the half ended 19-3 after five Green Bay scoring drives in six possessions.

The third quarter went the same way. Love found Golden again from 32 yards at 10:15, 26-3, and Prescott's next drive ended on an interception intended for George Pickens at 9:23. Smack kicked a 41-yarder at 6:27, Aubrey answered from 54 at 4:08, and Smack opened the fourth quarter with a 23-yard field goal at 14:42. Green Bay 32, Dallas 6, with 14:42 to play.

By the end of the night Green Bay had run 81 plays to Dallas's 51 and converted 21 first downs to 10. Love was efficient and the Packers kicked five field goals, which is the detail that matters: a team that settles for five field goals leaves the door open, and once in a while the Sims walk through it.

Thirty Points In Thirteen Minutes

Dallas's comeback took five possessions, with two Green Bay drives in between, and ran as follows, every play from the Sims' log:

• 12:57 of the fourth: Prescott to Pickens, 34 yards, touchdown. 32-13.
• 10:44: Kaleb Johnson fumbles on the fourth play of Green Bay's next drive, after a Strong carry, a Johnson carry and a 13-yard Love-to-Watson throw, and Dallas recovers.
• 10:34: Prescott to Jonathan Mingo, 40 yards, touchdown, on the first play after the fumble. 32-20.
• 7:09 and 6:49: Prescott to CeeDee Lamb for 39, then Javonte Williams runs it in from the 14. 32-27.
• 3:39 and 3:08: Prescott to Ryan Flournoy for 16, then Williams from the 2. The two-point try fails. Dallas 33, Green Bay 32.
• 1:41 and 1:31: Love to Tucker Kraft for 8, then Smack from 44. Green Bay 35, Dallas 33.
• 0:15 and 0:07: Prescott to Jake Ferguson for 8, then Aubrey from 58. Dallas 36, Green Bay 35.

Thirty Dallas points in 13 minutes, three lead changes in the last four minutes, and a game-winning kick from 58 yards. Prescott finished 24 of 38 for 359 yards, two touchdowns and the one interception. Love was 31 of 43 for 380 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions and still lost.

The box score, from the Sims: Prescott 24 of 38, 359 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT. Love 31 of 43, 380 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT. Rushing: Lloyd 15 carries, 58 yards, 1 TD; Kaleb Johnson 14 for 37 and the fumble; Williams 6 for 10 and 2 TDs, plus 5 catches for 28. Receiving: Pickens 6 for 150 and a touchdown on 9 targets; Golden 8 for 85 and 2 TDs; Christian Watson 6 for 85; Kraft 7 for 79 on 12 targets; Lamb 6 for 68; Mingo 1 for 40 and a touchdown; Flournoy 2 for 40; Bo Melton 2 for 39; Ferguson 4 for 33. Green Bay 81 plays and 21 first downs, Dallas 51 and 10; one turnover each; two sacks each; 27 drives in all. Smack 5 field goals (24, 55, 41, 23, 44) with one missed extra point; Aubrey 3 field goals (49, 54, 58).

How Rare It Is

The counts below are from the first 1,000 of the 10,000 runs, Sims 0 to 999, verified against the play logs.

The comeback is the one-in-a-thousand part. A one-point game and a 71-point game are each common enough to bet on, and both quarterbacks topping 350 happens one run in 40. What never happens, except here, is Green Bay getting to 32-6 and then not scoring a touchdown for 13 minutes while Dallas scores four.

What It Says About Sunday Night

Sim 371 is the game where every bet on the picks page loses: Lloyd scores, Williams scores twice, Watson does not score, and Prescott clears 275 by 84 yards. That matters, because the picks are priced on how often things happen across 10,000 runs, not on whether they can happen. Lloyd scores in 39.2% of the Sims and this is one of them. Williams scores in 51.3% and this is one with two.

The other half of Sim 371 is Green Bay's usual night, run longer than usual. Green Bay running 81 plays and kicking five field goals is the Packers' offense as the Sims see it most nights: long drives, short fields, Golden and Kraft as the targets, Lloyd and Johnson splitting the carries. Dallas throwing 38 times for 359 yards with Pickens at 150 is what the Cowboys' offense looks like when it has to chase, and the Sims give Prescott 350 or more in 118 runs of 1,000. The comeback needed the fumble; without the Johnson fumble four plays into Green Bay's answer drive, the Mingo score does not come 10 seconds later, and the game ends 32-20 or so. For the players behind these numbers, the Cowboys vs Packers props page has the 10,000-run answers for each.

Ask The Sims

Ask the next one.

Type "How often does Dallas win after trailing by 20?" into Ask the Sims and it counts the answer across all 10,000 runs, with the price beside it. In the first thousand, Dallas did it 9 times.

Sims run Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026, 8:27 p.m. UTC (3:27 p.m. CT), run 20261017T2027Z; rarity counts from Sims 0 to 999 of that run; the medians in the first paragraph are across all 10,000. The Sims do not model penalties, timeouts or return touchdowns. Play descriptions are the play log's own words. Kickoff Sunday, Oct. 18, 8:20 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field.

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