NFL Week 6 Bold Predictions: 13 Games, 13 Sub-1% Sims

October 17, 2026

Every week the Sims play each NFL game 10,000 times, and most of those games look like the game you would draw up: the favorite wins by a score, the quarterbacks land near their averages, nobody does anything you would text a friend about. Then there are the other hundred or so. Those are the games below. For each of the 13 remaining Week 6 games I went into the 10,000 runs, found one real game that happened about once in a hundred or rarer, and wrote it up as a bold prediction. Every score, every play and every stat line is from the Sims' own play log. The sim number is next to each one.

These are not picks and the Sims are not predicting them. They are the strange end of what the Sims think is possible, and the fun is in the asking: every section ends with the question I would type into Ask the Sims to see how often it really happens, and what Kalshi pays if it does.

A note on names: a few players below are questionable on Saturday's ESPN reports, Mike Evans, Chris Olave, Omar Cooper Jr., Sean Tucker and Tyjae Spears among them; the Sims ran them as active, and the page says so where a prediction leans on one. Ask the Sims any of these. The Kalshi Combo Simulator counts the answer across all 10,000 runs of the game and prices it beside Kalshi, free, no login.

Texans at Jaguars: Lawrence Throws Five Touchdowns In London

Bold prediction: Trevor Lawrence throws five touchdown passes to five different Jaguars and Jacksonville wins 35-6 at Wembley (Sim 55).

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET. In Sim 55 the Jaguars' first touchdown is a 36-yard throw to Bhayshul Tuten with 1:35 left in the first quarter, and the next four go to Josh Cameron from 5 yards, Brian Thomas Jr. from 52, Chris Rodriguez Jr. from 8 and Parker Washington from 16 at 14:19 of the fourth. Lawrence finishes 18 of 26 for 261 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Houston's six points are two Ka'imi Fairbairn field goals, and C.J. Stroud is 10 of 20 for 71 yards before Davis Mills finishes the game.

It happened in 1 of 1,000 Sims; the median game is Jaguars 23, Texans 20.

Ask the Sims: "How often does Trevor Lawrence throw 5+ touchdowns?"

Bears at Falcons: Atlanta Shut Out At Home

Bold prediction: The Falcons do not score, and the Bears win 31-0 without Caleb Williams, questionable on Saturday's report, throwing a touchdown (Sim 131).

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET. D'Andre Swift scores from 2 yards at 9:32 of the first, Brian Robinson Jr. fumbles on an 8-yard run at 3:50 and Chicago returns it for the second touchdown, Swift scores from 2 again at 9:41 of the second, and Williams finishes it with a 1-yard keeper at 6:22 of the third. Cairo Santos adds a 48-yarder. Michael Penix Jr. goes 16 of 27 for 166 yards, Bijan Robinson has 36 rushing yards and 89 receiving, and Atlanta turns it over twice. Williams throws two interceptions and still wins by 31.

It happened in 1 of 1,000 Sims; the median game is Bears 27, Falcons 26.

Ask the Sims: "How often are the Falcons held under 10 points?"

Ravens at Browns: Cleveland Scores 56

Bold prediction: The Browns score 56 points on the Ravens, 42 of them by halftime, and Deshaun Watson runs for 115 yards (Sim 370).

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET. Lamar Jackson is out with an ankle on ESPN's report, so Tyler Huntley starts, and an early Huntley pass, meant for Mark Andrews at 12:09 of the first, is intercepted and returned for a touchdown. Quinshon Judkins runs in from 20 yards at 7:17, and in the second quarter Cleveland scores four touchdowns: Watson to Judkins from 2, Audric Estime from 8, Watson to Jerry Jeudy from 9 and Watson to Judkins from 4 with 49 seconds left. It is 42-10 at the half. Watson finishes 22 of 30 for 216 yards and four touchdowns, with 115 rushing yards on nine carries, and Baltimore turns it over four times.

It happened in 1 of 1,000 Sims; the median game is Ravens 21, Browns 18.

Ask the Sims: "How often do the Browns score 35+ points?"

Titans at Colts: Tennessee Wins By 35

Bold prediction: Cam Ward throws three touchdowns and runs for a fourth in the first half, and the Titans win 45-10 in Indianapolis (Sim 155).

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET. Ward hits Carnell Tate from 13 yards at 9:33 of the first and Elic Ayomanor from 80 at 7:11, scores himself from 2 at 14:26 of the second and finds Wan'Dale Robinson from 11 at 2:09. It is 28-3 at the half, and Mitchell Trubisky adds a 2-yard run, Joey Slye a 56-yard field goal and Tyjae Spears a 7-yard run before the Colts score their only touchdown with six minutes left. Ward is 19 of 23 for 270 yards. Daniel Jones throws 35 times for 182 yards, and Jonathan Taylor carries 10 times for 46.

It happened in 1 of 1,000 Sims; the median game is Colts 26, Titans 19.

Ask the Sims: "How often do the Titans win by 14+?"

Jets at Patriots: Geno Smith Throws Five And Loses

Bold prediction: Geno Smith throws five touchdown passes, the Jets score 38, and they still lose 41-38 because A.J. Brown, questionable with an ankle on Saturday's report, catches three for New England (Sim 891).

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET. Drake Maye hits Brown from 40 yards at 11:58 of the first and runs one in from 22 at 4:42; Brown's second is a 51-yarder at 4:21 of the second and his third comes from Tommy DeVito at 10:40 of the third. New England leads 31-17 at the half. Smith answers all afternoon: Jelani Woods from 2, Garrett Wilson from 8, Omar Cooper Jr. from 5, Jeremy Ruckert from 8, and Tim Patrick from 27 with 3:47 left, with a two-point conversion that makes it 41-38. Smith finishes 23 of 35 for 245 yards and five touchdowns.

It happened in 1 of 1,000 Sims; the median game is Patriots 26, Jets 18.

Ask the Sims: "How often does Geno Smith throw 4+ touchdowns?"

Saints at Giants: New Orleans Scores 51

Bold prediction: The Saints score 51 at MetLife, Tyler Shough throws four touchdowns and Devaughn Vele catches two of them (Sim 188).

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET. Malik Nabers takes a Jameis Winston throw 64 yards at 8:00 of the first for the Giants' early lead, and the Saints answer with Kendre Miller from 9, Shough to Chris Olave from 32, Shough to CJ Donaldson from 6, Shough to Vele from 4 and from 5 either side of a 58-yard Dominic Zvada field goal for the Giants, and three Daniel Carlson kicks. Shough is 25 of 38 for 268 yards. Vele catches 10 for 101. Winston throws two interceptions and loses a fumble on a Nabers catch that New Orleans returns for a touchdown.

It happened in 1 of 1,000 Sims; the median game is Saints 23, Giants 23, a coin flip at 46 points.

Ask the Sims: "How often do the Saints score 35+ points?"

Panthers at Eagles: McKee Throws Five

Bold prediction: Tanner McKee throws for 367 yards and five touchdowns, and the Eagles win 35-7 (Sim 342).

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve with a calf, so McKee starts, and he opens with a 67-yard touchdown to DeVonta Smith at 9:16 of the first, hits Elijah Moore from 11 at 3:07, Dameon Pierce from 22 at 9:23 of the second and Darius Cooper from 30 at 8:24 of the third, then Pierce again from 12 at 14:25 of the fourth. Smith catches 10 for 164. Bryce Young is 9 of 18 for 101 yards before Kenny Pickett finishes, and Carolina's one touchdown is a 12-yard Young throw to Brycen Tremayne.

It happened in 1 of 1,000 Sims; the median game is Panthers 21, Eagles 18.

Ask the Sims: "How often does Tanner McKee throw 3+ touchdowns?"

Steelers at Buccaneers: Metcalf Goes For 201

Bold prediction: DK Metcalf catches seven passes for 201 yards and three touchdowns, Aaron Rodgers throws six, and Pittsburgh wins 48-21 in Tampa (Sim 988).

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET. Rodgers throws touchdowns to Germie Bernard, Jaylen Warren, Darnell Washington and Metcalf three times, from 24 yards with 16 seconds left in the half, from 30 at 2:00 of the third and from 32 at 14:52 of the fourth. He finishes 24 of 29 for 332 yards and six touchdowns, and Warren adds 132 rushing yards. Chris Boswell makes a 59-yarder. Tampa Bay's three touchdowns are all short runs, Kenny Gainwell, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker, and the Buccaneers turn it over four times.

It happened in 1 of 1,000 Sims; the median game is Steelers 21, Buccaneers 18.

Ask the Sims: "How often does DK Metcalf have 100+ receiving yards?"

Cardinals at Rams: The Rams Score Three Points

Bold prediction: No touchdowns at SoFi. Chad Ryland kicks three field goals, Blake Grupe misses one and makes one, and the Cardinals win 9-3 (Sim 357).

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET. Grupe misses from 47 at 9:14 of the second, Ryland makes from 23 and 50 before the half, and the game sits at 6-0 until Ryland's 33-yarder at 5:18 of the fourth. Grupe's 27-yarder at 3:04 is the Rams' only score. Matthew Stafford is 21 of 38 for 211 yards with an interception, Puka Nacua catches 10 for 98, Kyren Williams runs 17 times for 80, and Jacoby Brissett throws three interceptions and still wins.

It happened in 1 of 1,000 Sims; the median game is a 13-point Rams win with 52 points on the board, call it Rams 33, Cardinals 20.

Ask the Sims: "How often do the Rams score under 14 points?"

Chargers at Chiefs: Mahomes Throws Five

Bold prediction: Patrick Mahomes throws five touchdown passes, two to Travis Kelce, and Kansas City needs a 53-yard Harrison Butker field goal with 2:38 left to win 37-33 (Sim 212).

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET. The Chargers score first on a Kenneth Walker III fumble, the Chiefs' back coughing it up and Los Angeles returning it for a touchdown, at 13:19 of the first and again on a punt-return touchdown at 14:56 of the second. Mahomes throws over the top of all of it: Kelce from 16, Xavier Worthy from 4, Noah Gray from 4 with 47 seconds left in the half, Kelce from 18 and Brashard Smith from 60. Justin Herbert's one touchdown is a 95-yard throw to Quentin Johnston at 13:36 of the fourth, and Cameron Dicker kicks four field goals. Mahomes is 23 of 38 for 308 yards; Kelce catches eight for 148.

It happened in 1 of 1,000 Sims; the median game is Chiefs 24, Chargers 17.

Ask the Sims: "How often does Patrick Mahomes throw 4+ touchdowns?"

Bills at Raiders: Allen Throws For 514

Bold prediction: Josh Allen throws for 514 yards, Keon Coleman catches five for 188, and Buffalo still needs overtime to win 33-30 (Sim 649).

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET. Allen's only touchdown pass is a 53-yarder to Dawson Knox at 13:20 of the second; the rest of the 514 is yardage between the 20s, and James Cook III scores twice from the 2 and the 1. Las Vegas answers every time: a 29-yard Tre Tucker run, Kirk Cousins to Ian Thomas from 28, and a 1-yard Cousins throw to Ashton Jeanty at 2:01 of the fourth that ties it at 30 after the extra point. Tyler Bass wins it from 32 yards in overtime. Jeanty runs for 124.

It happened in 1 of 1,000 Sims; the median game is Bills 30, Raiders 24.

Ask the Sims: "How often does Josh Allen throw for 350+ yards?"

Cowboys at Packers: Lambeau Gets Shut Out

Bold prediction: Dallas wins 38-0 at Lambeau, Dak Prescott throws three touchdowns, two to Jake Ferguson, and Green Bay never scores (Sim 480).

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET. Prescott hits Ferguson from 11 at 8:49 of the first and from 31 at 1:07 of the second, Tyler Goodson runs in from 18 in between, Brandon Aubrey adds a 32-yard field goal at 7:13, and it is 24-0 at the half. CeeDee Lamb scores from 15 at 6:10 of the third and Javonte Williams from 31 at 9:33 of the fourth. Prescott is 30 of 38 for 329 yards. Love is 16 of 29 for 175 with an interception, and Green Bay turns it over three times and never scores. The Sunday night picks page fades MarShawn Lloyd to score; in this one, nobody in green does.

It happened in 1 of 1,000 Sims; the median game is Packers 27, Cowboys 26.

Ask the Sims: "How often do the Packers score under 10 points?"

Commanders at 49ers: Daniels Throws For 416

Bold prediction: Jayden Daniels completes 29 of 32 passes for 416 yards, runs for three touchdowns, and Washington wins 44-24 in Santa Clara (Sim 269).

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET. Daniels runs in from 2 at 12:53 of the first, from 7 at 14:25 of the second and from 4 at 6:33 of the third, throws a 3-yarder to Rachaad White in between and a 43-yarder to Terry McLaurin at 5:47 of the fourth. McLaurin catches seven for 181. Brock Purdy throws for 293 and three touchdowns, to George Kittle, Jordan Watkins and Mike Evans, and the 49ers turn it over twice. Drew Stevens kicks three field goals and misses one.

It happened in 1 of 1,000 Sims; the median game is 49ers 30, Commanders 22.

Ask the Sims: "How often does Jayden Daniels throw for 300+ yards?"

Ask The Next One

Thirteen games, thirteen one-in-a-thousand nights, and none of them is a pick. The pick is the question. Every one of these came from asking the Sims what the strangest version of the game looks like, and the same tool answers the version you have in your head: the comeback, the shutout, the five-touchdown night for your quarterback, with the price Kalshi puts on it beside the count.

Ask the next one.

Type your bold prediction into Ask the Sims and it counts how often it happens across all 10,000 runs of the game, with the price beside it. If it is under 1%, you have found one of these.

Every game above is one of the 10,000 Sims of that matchup, read from the play log, with the sim number named. Counts are from the first 1,000 Sims of each game's Saturday afternoon run, checked twice; medians are from all 10,000. Runs: HOU-JAX 20261017T2138Z, BAL-CLE 2140Z, CAR-PHI 2143Z, CHI-ATL 2146Z, NO-NYG 2149Z, NYJ-NE 2151Z, PIT-TB 2154Z, TEN-IND 2157Z, ARI-LAR 2200Z, BUF-LV 2203Z, LAC-KC 2205Z, DAL-GB 2208Z, WAS-SF 2211Z, all Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026. The Sims rerun before kickoff, so ask for the live number. Kickoff times from ESPN.

Every game on this page is one of 10,000 the Sims played. Ask the Sims how often your own version happens, free, no login.

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