Bills vs. Rams Props: Buffalo by 4+ Pays +240

Bills to win by 4+ is my bet for Monday night: 29.4¢ (+240) on Kalshi, and Buffalo does it in 33.3% of our Sims. The Rams are 3-point favorites, but when the Bills win in the Sims, about 80% of those wins come by 4 or more.

In the Sims, the Bills moneyline is priced about right, but Bills by 4+ is too cheap. Two Rams running back unders win in that same game script.

The Sims are 10,000 runs of the game made Sunday, Oct. 11, at 11:35 p.m. CT, with DJ Moore (questionable, shoulder) playing; if he's ruled out, the Bills bets get smaller, not cancelled. Kalshi prices are from Monday, Oct. 12, about 4 a.m. CT, fee included. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, and inactives post at 6:45 p.m. ET.

No Josh Allen props here. He has run for seven touchdowns in four games, and the Sims have him scoring in only 27% of games, about half what the market says. When the Sims and the market are that far apart on a player, I leave his props alone, and that goes for his completions and attempts too.

Bet the Margin, Not the Moneyline

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Ask The Sims whether the Bills win at all and the card comes back fair value: the moneyline is priced right, so there's no edge there.

The edge is in how Buffalo wins. The offense has scored at least 24 every week, and all three of its wins came by more than a field goal. The Rams have turned it over twice in every game. If Buffalo wins Monday night, it probably isn't by a field goal.

About 80% of Buffalo's wins in the Sims clear 4 points, so this bet keeps most of the moneyline's wins and pays +240 instead of +146. In those games the average score is about Bills 33, Rams 21.

It's still a one-in-three bet, so size it like one. I'd buy YES up to 33¢. The Sims have DJ Moore playing, and Joshua Palmer is already out. If Moore is ruled out at 6:45 p.m. ET, I'd keep the bet but cut it in half.

Corum Has Been Squeezed Out

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Blake Corum split the work for two weeks. Then Kyren Williams took over, and Corum has 29 yards on 11 carries since.

The Sims give Corum about seven carries and 38 yards. His one big game came in a 28-6 rout of the Giants, which is the kind of night this page is betting against. In the Sims where the Bills win by 4+, the under hits nearly four times in five. I'd buy NO on Corum 40+ up to 61¢.

Williams' Carries Drop When Buffalo Leads

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This one only works in one script. When the Rams win in the Sims, Williams averages 16 carries, about what he's had the last two weeks. When the Bills win by 4+, it drops to about 11, and he's under 12 more than half the time.

That makes it a small bet and the Bills bet's partner. I'd buy NO on Williams 12+ carries up to 30¢.

Put the two together and you get the ticket with the biggest payout on the page. Bills by 4+ and Williams under 12 carries land together in 17.5% of the Sims (+470), against about 10% if the two had nothing to do with each other. Build the combo on Kalshi and take any price under 17¢.

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The Bets

• Buy YES on Bills to win by 4+ at 29.4¢ (+240) on Kalshi. The moneyline is fairly priced; most Buffalo wins come by more than a field goal.
• Buy NO on Blake Corum 40+ rushing yards at 58.7¢ (-142). Williams has the job, and Corum has 29 yards in two weeks.
• Small: buy NO on Kyren Williams 12+ rush attempts at 27.3¢ (+266). It pays when Buffalo leads.
• Smallest: the Bills by 4+ and Williams under 12 combo, at any quote under 17¢. One script, one ticket.

Ask The Sims also answers live during the game. In London on Sunday, a reader asked in the 1st quarter whether Parker Washington would finish with 6+ catches, 2+ touchdowns and 100+ yards. The live Sims said 19.2% (+422), and he finished with 6 catches, 124 yards and two scores.

Want a different question, like how Allen does if the Rams win? Ask The Sims about Bills vs. Rams.