Ask the Sims: Javonte Williams Yards, Every Line Pays

Javonte Williams rushes for 80 or more yards in 46.4% of 10,000 runs of tonight's game, and the price on Kalshi is 41.7¢. That is the first line I got back from Ask the Sims, and it was the smallest edge on the card.

Ask the Sims is the question box in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator. Type a player and a line and it answers from 10,000 runs of the game, prices the answer against Kalshi, and lays out every neighboring line and pairing. Here is the Williams card as it came back Thursday morning.

What I asked: "How often does Javonte Williams rush for 80+ yards?"

The answer card from Ask the Sims in the Kalshi Combo Simulator. Tap it to ask your own Williams question.

Disagree with the Sims?

Ask them your version: Williams if Dallas leads by 10 at the half, Williams at 100 yards, Williams and Dak Prescott under 250 together. Every answer comes with the Kalshi price beside it. Open tonight's game.

Five Lines, Five Edges

Scroll the card to the alt lines and the pattern is the same at every rung, in the right direction this time.

The alt-line ladder from the same card. Yellow is the Sims, blue is Kalshi.

The Sims have Dallas ahead most of the night against a rookie quarterback, and a team that leads runs the clock. Williams gets the second-half carries in those games. His yardage prices still carry last week's shootout in Houston, where Dallas threw 45 times and nobody ran, and tonight is not that game. The best of the five is 60+ at 62.7¢, 68.7% in the Sims, if you want the likeliest hit; 80+ at 41.7¢ is the better payout for the same edge.

Pair It With the Blowout

The card prices Williams 80+ next to the Dallas margin, and the pairs are better than the single.

The pairings from the same answer, each priced as a combo.

Williams 80+ and Dallas wins by 15 or more hit together 32% more often than the two prices imply, because the blowout is the game where he runs out the fourth quarter. As a combo, the Sims price it at 20.2¢ against 16.7¢ expected. If you think this one gets away from Tampa Bay, that pair is the cleanest way to say so.

The Touchdown Is the Skip

Williams is the Cowboys' likeliest scorer, and that is the problem with the price.

Williams' other props and the other side of the 80-yard line, from the same answer.

Williams scores a touchdown, 66.6¢ (-199) on Kalshi, 63.3% in the Sims. Three cents against you on the most popular Williams bet in the game. The Sims have Tyler Goodson sharing the goal-line carries, and 66.6¢ assumes he does not. His receptions are priced past the Sims too. The yards are the Williams line nobody is pricing for a lead.

My Take

• Buy Williams 80+ rushing yards at 41.7¢ (+140). 46.4% in the Sims, the card's headline answer.
• Or Williams 60+ at 62.7¢ (-168) for the likeliest hit, 68.7% in the Sims.
• Pair Williams 80+ with Dallas by 15+ if you want the blowout ticket; the pair is 20.2¢ in the Sims against 16.7¢ expected.
• Skip Williams scores a touchdown at 66.6¢. The popular bet is the overpriced one.

Every price here includes Kalshi's taker fee. Every Week 5 game with Sims is in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator; type a player and a line and you get the card you see above.

Prices: Kalshi, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, about 8:30 a.m. CT, as shown on the cards. These are market prices and estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.