Eagles vs. Jaguars Props: Lawrence Hasn't Completed 20 Yet

Trevor Lawrence under 20 completions is my bet for London: 53.7¢ on Kalshi (-116), and cheaper at DraftKings, -105. He has finished with 18, 17, 19 and 18 in four games, and Jacksonville is 3-1 anyway.

The Jaguars have led at halftime every week, and the one time they blew the lead, in Denver, he still stopped at 17. I ran three bets through Ask The Sims, 10,000 runs of Sunday's game. The two Eagles bets are Sunday-morning plays, and only if DeVonta Smith is active.

The Sims have DeVonta Smith playing and Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert out. If Smith sits, both Eagles numbers drop. Prices from Friday, Oct. 9, about 8:05 a.m. CT, Kalshi's fee included. Kickoff is Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network.

Lawrence Stays Under 20

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Liam Coen hasn't needed 20 completions from him yet. Once Jacksonville has the lead, the ball goes to Bhayshul Tuten, who has carried at least 13 times every week.

Lawrence threw 29 times in the Denver loss and still finished with 17. The Sims say the same about Sunday: the under hits as often when Jacksonville loses as when it wins. You don't need a blowout.

He's finished one to three completions short every week, so it's never comfortable. If you have DraftKings, bet it there. Under 19.5 is the same bet, and -105 beats the -116 on Kalshi.

Hurts Needs DeVonta Smith

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Hurts threw for 93 yards against the Rams last week, without Smith. With Smith in the lineup the first three weeks, he cleared 200 twice.

Sunday sets up for volume. Barkley is week-to-week and the Eagles are big underdogs, so Hurts has to throw. Denver put up 288 on this defense, Joe Burrow threw 54 times against it last week, and three Jaguars cornerbacks are questionable.

But the Sims have Smith on the field, and he hasn't practiced this week. Inactives come out around 8 a.m. ET Sunday. If Smith is up, I'm buying Hurts 200+ up to 50¢ on Kalshi or even money at a sportsbook. Today's +126 on FanDuel won't last once he's active. If he's down, I'm out on Hurts. The offensive line has lost Lane Johnson and Cam Jurgens since that Rams game, too.

Eagles at +310, Small

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The Sims land on Jaguars by 7, with 42 total points. The spread and the total match the Sims too closely to bet, so I'm leaving both alone. The moneyline is the only full-game price I'd bet.

Two straight losses, the Barkley injury, and a new right tackle and center explain why Philadelphia is this cheap. But Jacksonville's 3-1 isn't airtight. Denver erased a third-quarter lead, and Cincinnati passed for 428 yards in a five-point loss. The Eagles don't need to be good to win this 28% of the time. They need Hurts to have someone to throw to.

So it's the same Sunday-morning call as the Hurts bet, and a small one. Smith in, I'll take the Eagles down to +260 at a sportsbook, or up to 28¢ on Kalshi. FanDuel has +310 today. Smith out, the Lawrence under is my only bet on this game.

The Bets

• Now: buy NO on Trevor Lawrence 20+ completions at 53.7¢ on Kalshi, or under 19.5 at -105 on DraftKings. Four games, never 20, and the score doesn't change it.
• Sunday at 8 a.m. ET, if DeVonta Smith is active: buy YES on Jalen Hurts 200+ passing yards up to 50¢ on Kalshi, or even money or better at a sportsbook. He's cleared it in two of three games with Smith.
• Same condition, small: Eagles to win, down to +260 at a sportsbook or up to 28¢ on Kalshi. A long shot that's priced a little too long.

Want a different number, like Lawrence under 30 attempts? Ask The Sims your own question about Eagles vs. Jaguars.