Bucky Irving Rushing Yards Tonight: Over or Under 60?

Bucky Irving's touchdown is the best price in Bucs at Cowboys tonight, and his rushing yards are the worst. Those two facts come from the same player and the same 10,000 Sims, and the two prices point the wrong way.

I asked the Sims, the question box in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator, how often Irving rushes for 60 or more against Dallas. Here is the card, as it came back Thursday morning.

What I asked: "How often does Bucky Irving rush for 60+ yards?"

The answer card from Ask the Sims in the Kalshi Combo Simulator. Tap it to ask your own Irving question.

Disagree with the Sims?

Ask them your version: Irving if Tampa Bay leads at halftime, Irving at 50 yards, Irving with a touchdown. Every answer comes with the Kalshi price beside it. Open tonight's game.

Every Yardage Line Overpays

The card's alt-line ladder makes the point five times in a row.

The alt-line ladder from the same card. Yellow is the Sims, blue is Kalshi.

Seven cents at every rung is not a coincidence. Every line costs what the Irving who gets 20 carries in a close game would be worth. The Sims have Dallas ahead most of the night with rookie Jalon Daniels on the other sideline, and a team that trails stops handing off. Irving averages 13.7 carries a game in these Sims. That is a touchdown's worth of goal-line work, not 60 yards of volume.

The card names the side: Irving under 60 rushing yards at 61.7¢ (-161), 64.6% in the Sims, about 5¢ of edge per dollar.

The Over Only Works With the Upset

There is one honest way to buy Irving's yards, and the card found it under "pairs well with it."

The pairings from the same answer, each priced as a combo.

Irving 60+ with a Tampa Bay win hits together 69% more often than the two prices imply, because the games where Tampa Bay wins are the games where Irving keeps getting the ball. Priced as a combo, Irving 60+ and a Bucs win is 15.2¢ in the Sims against 13.9¢ expected. On its own, the over is a 7¢ overpay. Tied to the upset, it becomes a small edge. If you think Tampa Bay wins tonight, that is the ticket, not the yardage line by itself.

The Touchdown Is the Irving Bet

Scroll the same card to "Irving's other props" and the one green line on the page is the one everyone has heard about.

Irving's other props from the same answer.

Irving scores a touchdown, 34.5¢ (+190) on Kalshi, 41.2% in the Sims. Seven cents the other way. The same rookie-quarterback script that caps his yards hands him the goal-line carries, and the two prices read as if they came from different games.

My Take

• Buy Irving under 60 rushing yards at 61.7¢ (-161). The card's better bet, 64.6% in the Sims.
• Buy Irving scores a touchdown at 34.5¢ (+190). The best single price in the game.
• Skip every Irving rushing-yards over on its own. 40 through 80 all trade 7¢ above the Sims.
• If you like the upset, pair Irving 60+ with Tampa Bay wins instead of buying the over alone.

Every price here includes Kalshi's taker fee. Every Week 5 game with Sims is in the free Kalshi Combo Simulator; type a player and a line and you get the card you see above.

Prices: Kalshi, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2026, about 8:30 a.m. CT, as shown on the cards. These are market prices and estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.