Bo Nix Props: Five Lines, All About His Legs

Bo Nix has 60 priced prop lines for Thursday night against Seattle, and 10,000 Stokastic Sims beat the price on five of them. Every one is about him running. He clears 15 rushing yards in 57.0% of 10,000 simulations against 51.7 cents on Kalshi, and 10 rushing yards in 72.8% against 67.6, while the unders on both are the two most overpriced contracts on his board.

This Week: Seattle At Denver, Thursday

Both teams are 3-2. The Season Engine projects Seattle for 10.5 wins and Denver for 10.0, and the Sims give the Seahawks the game in 57.8% of runs against 58.7 cents on Kalshi. A game this close produces prop lines that are hard to beat, and that shows up across the whole board.

Bo Nix Props: Passing Yards Distribution

Start with the median rather than the average. The typical Nix game in these simulations is 206; the average is 205.7 because a small number of large outcomes pull it upward. The middle 80% runs from 131 to 283, so eight nights in ten land somewhere inside that window, and a line anywhere near the middle of it is closer to a coin flip than its price suggests.

The best game in the 10,000 runs was 467. That is the ceiling the simulations found, not a forecast: it is the single most extreme result out of ten thousand.

Ask The Sims About Nix Right Here

Type a question about his night, or tap one below. The Sims answer it on this page, from the same 10,000 runs, with Kalshi's live price next to it.

Line By Line

The passing side is quieter but not silent. The Sims have him over 200 yards in 54.3% against 51.7 cents and over 150 in 83.3% against 81.1, so the market is a touch cheap there too, by about two and a half cents. His scoring line is the opposite: 15.8% in the simulations against 17.9 cents, and a quarterback's touchdown pass does not count toward it, so that contract is purely about him running one in himself.

Bo Nix Parlays: What The Sims Price

Combining legs on the same player is not the same as multiplying their prices, because the Sims run both outcomes in the same game. 10+ rushing yards and 200+ passing yards land together in 4,029 of the 10,000 runs, which is 40.3%. Multiply the two Kalshi prices as if they were independent and you get 34.9%.

That gap is correlation, and it runs in the buyer's favor here: the same script that produces one leg tends to produce the other. Build the pair in the parlay builder to price it against what Kalshi asks for the combination itself.

Bo Nix Touchdown Odds

The Sims put him in the end zone in 15.8% of the 10,000 runs. Kalshi charges 18.0 cents, a gap of -2.2.

Scoring splits from yardage more often than people expect, and the reason is the shape of the two outcomes. Yardage is continuous, so the simulations settle on it quickly and the market can read the same curve. A touchdown is a single discrete event that turns on red-zone trips and who finishes the drive, and a small difference in that assumption moves the price far more than it moves a yards line.

How To Read These Numbers

The Sims column is what 10,000 simulations of this game produce. The Kalshi column is the all-in price, the ask plus Kalshi's taker fee. A gap of a cent or less is noise, and treating it as an edge is how prop content loses people. Two cents or more is a disagreement with a number attached, and it is the only kind reported here.

Five lines clear two cents and all five point the same way. When a board disagrees with the market in one direction only, that is a read on the model's view of the player, not a collection of picks.

This page is rewritten when the Sims re-run and keeps its address.

Sims run Wed 10:30 AM CT, Wednesday, October 14, 2026; Kalshi prices from the same build and they move before kickoff. A price in cents reads as a chance. These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. 21+.

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