Sam Darnold Props: The Market Forgot He Runs

Sam Darnold has 56 priced prop lines for Thursday night at Denver, and the widest gap on the whole board is not a passing line. The Sims have him clearing five rushing yards in 61.1% of 10,000 runs while Kalshi charges 52.7 cents, a gap of 8.4. The other side of that same line, under five rushing yards, is the most overpriced contract he has.

This Week: Seattle At Denver, Thursday

Both teams are 3-2. The Season Engine projects Seattle for 10.5 wins and Denver for 10.0, and the Sims give the Seahawks the game in 57.8% of runs against 58.7 cents on Kalshi. A game this close produces prop lines that are hard to beat, and that shows up across the whole board.

Sam Darnold Props: Passing Yards Distribution

Start with the median rather than the average. The typical Darnold game in these simulations is 222; the average is 221.9 because a small number of large outcomes pull it upward. The middle 80% runs from 144 to 301, so eight nights in ten land somewhere inside that window, and a line anywhere near the middle of it is closer to a coin flip than its price suggests.

The best game in the 10,000 runs was 502. That is the ceiling the simulations found, not a forecast: it is the single most extreme result out of ten thousand.

Ask The Sims About Darnold Right Here

Type a question about his night, or tap one below. The Sims answer it on this page, from the same 10,000 runs, with Kalshi's live price next to it.

Line By Line

His passing board is close to settled. The Sims and the market are inside a cent and a half on 150 yards, 225 yards and his completions, and his passing-touchdown line is priced two cents above the simulation. Nothing there is a disagreement. The money is on the ground, where the market is pricing a quarterback who stays in the pocket and the Sims keep moving him out of it.

Sam Darnold Parlays: What The Sims Price

Combining legs on the same player is not the same as multiplying their prices, because the Sims run both outcomes in the same game. 5+ rushing yards and throws a TD pass land together in 4,936 of the 10,000 runs, which is 49.4%. Multiply the two Kalshi prices as if they were independent and you get 43.3%.

That gap is correlation, and it runs in the buyer's favor here: the same script that produces one leg tends to produce the other. Build the pair in the parlay builder to price it against what Kalshi asks for the combination itself.

Sam Darnold Touchdown Odds

The Sims put him in the end zone in 6.4% of the 10,000 runs. Kalshi charges 8.5 cents, a gap of -2.1.

Scoring splits from yardage more often than people expect, and the reason is the shape of the two outcomes. Yardage is continuous, so the simulations settle on it quickly and the market can read the same curve. A touchdown is a single discrete event that turns on red-zone trips and who finishes the drive, and a small difference in that assumption moves the price far more than it moves a yards line.

How To Read These Numbers

The Sims column is what 10,000 simulations of this game produce. The Kalshi column is the all-in price, the ask plus Kalshi's taker fee. A gap of a cent or less is noise, and treating it as an edge is how prop content loses people. Two cents or more is a disagreement with a number attached, and it is the only kind reported here.

Four lines out of 56 clear two cents, and three of the four are about his legs. That is a specific read, not a slate call.

This page is rewritten when the Sims re-run and keeps its address.

Sims run Wed 10:30 AM CT, Wednesday, October 14, 2026; Kalshi prices from the same build and they move before kickoff. A price in cents reads as a chance. These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. 21+.

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