Jaylen Waddle Props: Nothing To Buy Thursday

Jaylen Waddle has 44 priced prop lines for Thursday night against Seattle, and 10,000 Stokastic Sims beat the price on none of them. Not one clears two cents. The best thing on his board is an under at 1.6, and the worst is six or more receptions, where the Sims say 29.9% and the market charges 35.6 cents.

This Week: Seattle At Denver, Thursday

Both teams are 3-2. The Season Engine projects Seattle for 10.5 wins and Denver for 10.0, and the Sims give the Seahawks the game in 57.8% of runs against 58.7 cents on Kalshi. A game this close produces prop lines that are hard to beat, and that shows up across the whole board.

Jaylen Waddle Props: Receiving Yards Distribution

Start with the median rather than the average. The typical Waddle game in these simulations is 48; the average is 52.5 because a small number of large outcomes pull it upward. The middle 80% runs from 15 to 97, so eight nights in ten land somewhere inside that window, and a line anywhere near the middle of it is closer to a coin flip than its price suggests.

The best game in the 10,000 runs was 243. That is the ceiling the simulations found, not a forecast: it is the single most extreme result out of ten thousand.

Ask The Sims About Waddle Right Here

Type a question about his night, or tap one below. The Sims answer it on this page, from the same 10,000 runs, with Kalshi's live price next to it.

Line By Line

The pattern is the same the whole way up. Sixty receiving yards is 36.8% in the simulations against 41.7 cents, 70 is 26.7 against 31.5, and his touchdown is the one line the two sides essentially agree on at 29.0 against 28.4. His median night is 48 yards and the middle 80% runs from 15 to 97, a spread wide enough that most of these rungs are close calls the market has already priced correctly.

Jaylen Waddle Parlays: What The Sims Price

Combining legs on the same player is not the same as multiplying their prices, because the Sims run both outcomes in the same game. Scores a TD and 60+ receiving yards land together in 1,565 of the 10,000 runs, which is 15.7%. Multiply the two Kalshi prices as if they were independent and you get 11.8%.

That gap is correlation, and it runs in the buyer's favor here: the same script that produces one leg tends to produce the other. Build the pair in the parlay builder to price it against what Kalshi asks for the combination itself.

Jaylen Waddle Touchdown Odds

The Sims put him in the end zone in 29.0% of the 10,000 runs. Kalshi charges 28.4 cents, a gap of +0.6.

Scoring splits from yardage more often than people expect, and the reason is the shape of the two outcomes. Yardage is continuous, so the simulations settle on it quickly and the market can read the same curve. A touchdown is a single discrete event that turns on red-zone trips and who finishes the drive, and a small difference in that assumption moves the price far more than it moves a yards line.

How To Read These Numbers

The Sims column is what 10,000 simulations of this game produce. The Kalshi column is the all-in price, the ask plus Kalshi's taker fee. A gap of a cent or less is noise, and treating it as an edge is how prop content loses people. Two cents or more is a disagreement with a number attached, and it is the only kind reported here.

A page with no recommendation is still an answer. The Sims looked at 44 contracts on this receiver and found nothing they would pay for.

This page is rewritten when the Sims re-run and keeps its address.

Sims run Wed 10:30 AM CT, Wednesday, October 14, 2026; Kalshi prices from the same build and they move before kickoff. A price in cents reads as a chance. These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. 21+.

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