Cowboys vs. Packers Props: George Pickens TD Pays +165

George Pickens to score a touchdown is my bet for Sunday night: +165 at DraftKings and +160 at FanDuel, and he scores in 46.9% of our Sims. He's nearly an even-money shot at a price that pays like he isn't.

The game itself is a toss-up. The Packers win 50.0% of the Sims, the Cowboys 49.0%, and the average score is 27-27. So I went looking for the bets inside it, starting with the question everyone has this week: who gets the ball if CeeDee Lamb's quad isn't right?

Sims run Tuesday, Oct. 13, 4:50 a.m. CT, with Lamb (questionable, quad) playing. If he's ruled out, I'll re-ask, and I'd expect the Pickens bets to get stronger. Prices were read Tuesday, Oct. 13, at 7:19 a.m. CT; Kalshi's include the fee. Kickoff is 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

Every chance on this page comes from the Sims, and Ask The Sims will answer your own Cowboys-Packers question for free. Last Saturday a reader asked how often Jameis Winston would throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns. It said 1.7%, and on Sunday Winston did it. Try yours:

Pickens Is the Touchdown Bet

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Pickens has one touchdown in five games, and that's why he's +165. Touchdowns follow targets, and he has 41 of them in five games. The Sims give him about eight more on Sunday.

Thursday showed what happens when Lamb isn't right. Lamb took a hit on the same quad that got hit the week before, caught two passes and wasn't on the field for Dallas' last drive. Pickens caught nine for 130 and scored.

Lamb is questionable, and the Sims have him playing. Pickens still scores in almost half of those games, and in 52% of the ones Dallas wins.

Green Bay's pass rush is also short-handed. Micah Parsons won't make his season debut against his old team, and Javon Hargrave is out. FanDuel has him at +160 (see it on FanDuel). I'd bet it at +115 or longer.

Dak Keeps Completing Passes

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Dak has completed at least 22 passes in every game this year, and 24 or more in four of five.

Dallas has allowed at least 20 points every week, so Dak has been throwing to keep up. The total is 52.5, and the Sims have this one going over about half the time too.

His main line at DraftKings is 22.5, and I'd rather take 24+ at +118. The Sims have him there 50.9% of the time, so +118 is paying you for a coin flip.

Kraft Is the Packers Bet

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Green Bay's offense is thinner than usual. Josh Jacobs is out and Jayden Reed is on IR, so Jordan Love's targets go to Christian Watson, Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft.

Kraft has caught 11 passes in the last two games, and the Sims give him about seven targets and 60 yards on Sunday. He gets to 50 in 57.0% of them.

It also helps that Dallas has given up 27 points a game. The Cowboys brought in Mike Pettine as a senior defensive assistant after Thursday's loss. Kraft 50+ yards is +102 at FanDuel (over 49.5 is -108 at DraftKings), and I'd take it at either.

Pickens and Dak Parlay

Build it in the Sims →

This is the ticket I'd build. Pickens 6+ catches is +150 at DraftKings (+144 at FanDuel), and he's had six or more in three of five games. The Sims make it 48.3%.

All three legs need the same night: Dak throwing a lot, and a lot of it going to Pickens. That's why they land together far more often than three separate bets would, in 18.6% of the Sims (+437).

The Sims' fair price is +437, and the simulator expects DraftKings to quote it around +782. DraftKings had it at +650 when I checked. Build it, check the real quote, and take anything at +500 or longer. Keep it small. It's still a one-in-five ticket.

Cowboys vs. Packers Prediction: Bet the Margin

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My prediction: if Dallas wins this game, it wins by more than a field goal. Neither moneyline is worth its Kalshi price in the Sims, but the Cowboys' margin is. When Dallas wins, 75% of those wins come by five or more, and those games average Cowboys 33, Packers 20.

Cowboys by 5+ is 34.5¢ on Kalshi (+190), and it hits in 36.5% of the Sims. It's a small edge, so it's a small bet. On Polymarket, Cowboys by 8+ at 24.5¢ is the same idea at a longer price (see it on Polymarket).

Why I'm Not Betting Lamb's Catches

On paper, Lamb 7+ catches looks like the best bet in the game. The Sims say 54.6%, and DraftKings pays +123.

Ask The Sims won't call it a bet, and I agree. The Sims and DraftKings are too far apart on this one, and a gap that big usually means the market knows something. Here that's probably Lamb's quad. If he's cleared and practicing by Friday, ask again.

Jake Ferguson's yardage under gets the same flag. He's under 30 yards in four of five games, but I'm not betting a prop the tool won't call.

Showdown: Who Has the Biggest Night

For Showdown, I ran the box scores from all 10,000 Sims through DraftKings scoring. Here's how often each player finishes as the game's top scorer.

Lamb is the first captain name if he plays. Pickens is next, and he's the one I want if Lamb's quad is still an issue.

The Bets

• George Pickens anytime TD at +165 on DraftKings or +160 on FanDuel. He scores in 46.9% of the Sims.
• Dak Prescott 24+ completions at +118 on DraftKings. He's hit 24 in four of five games.
• Tucker Kraft 50+ receiving yards at +102 on FanDuel. The Packers bet, with Jacobs and Reed out.
• Small: Cowboys by 5+ at 34.5¢ on Kalshi. When Dallas wins, it's usually by 5+.
• Smallest: Pickens TD, Pickens 6+ catches and Dak 24+ completions, built as one parlay. 18.6% in the Sims (+437).

Ask The Sims is free on every NFL game, and it answers from the same 10,000 runs I used here. A few I'd ask on this one:

• Best 3-leg parlay if the Packers win
• Jordan Love 2+ passing TDs. He's thrown exactly two in all five games, and I want to know what that streak is worth.
• CeeDee Lamb 100+ receiving yards

Or open the simulator for your app: DraftKings, FanDuel, Kalshi or Polymarket.