Courtland Sutton Props: The End Zone Costs Too Much

This Week: Seattle At Denver, Thursday

Both teams come in 3-2. The Season Engine has Seattle at 10.5 projected wins and Denver at 10.0, and the Sims give the Seahawks the game 57.8% of the time against 58.7 cents on Kalshi. With that little daylight between the two sides, most of the prop board gets priced correctly and the exceptions stand out.

Courtland Sutton Props: Receiving Yards Distribution

Start with the median rather than the average. The typical Sutton game in these simulations is 32; the average is 36.9 because a small number of large outcomes pull it upward. The middle 80% runs from 7 to 73, so eight nights in ten land somewhere inside that window, and a line anywhere near the middle of it is closer to a coin flip than its price suggests.

The best game in the 10,000 runs was 181. That is the ceiling the simulations found, not a forecast: it is the single most extreme result out of ten thousand.

Ask The Sims About Sutton Right Here

Type a question about his night, or tap one below. The Sims answer it on this page, from the same 10,000 runs, with Kalshi's live price next to it.

Line By Line

His yardage is priced close. Twenty-five yards is 62.3% in the simulations against 63.6 cents, 40 is 39.6 against 41.7, and 60 is 18.7 against 21.1, all inside the ordinary two-cent premium. The scoring line is the outlier on an otherwise unremarkable board, and it is the one number that moves most on an assumption the simulations do not share.

Courtland Sutton Parlays: What The Sims Price

Combining legs on the same player is not the same as multiplying their prices, because the Sims run both outcomes in the same game. Scores a TD and 40+ receiving yards land together in 1,246 of the 10,000 runs, which is 12.5%. Multiply the two Kalshi prices as if they were independent and you get 11.4%.

That gap is correlation, and it runs in the buyer's favor here: the same script that produces one leg tends to produce the other. Build the pair in the parlay builder to price it against what Kalshi asks for the combination itself.

Courtland Sutton Touchdown Odds

The Sims put him in the end zone in 19.9% of the 10,000 runs. Kalshi charges 27.3 cents, a gap of -7.4.

Scoring splits from yardage more often than people expect, and the reason is the shape of the two outcomes. Yardage is continuous, so the simulations settle on it quickly and the market can read the same curve. A touchdown is a single discrete event that turns on red-zone trips and who finishes the drive, and a small difference in that assumption moves the price far more than it moves a yards line.

How To Read These Numbers

The Sims column is what 10,000 simulations of this game produce. The Kalshi column is the all-in price, the ask plus Kalshi's taker fee. A gap of a cent or less is noise, and treating it as an edge is how prop content loses people. Two cents or more is a disagreement with a number attached, and it is the only kind reported here.

One contract clears two cents in the buyer's direction and it is a no. The market is charging a touchdown premium on a receiver the Sims score about once every five games.

This page is rewritten when the Sims re-run and keeps its address.

Sims run Wed 10:30 AM CT, Wednesday, October 14, 2026; Kalshi prices from the same build and they move before kickoff. A price in cents reads as a chance. These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. 21+.

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