Emanuel Wilson Props: His Rushing Lines Are Exact

This Week: Seattle At Denver, Thursday

Seattle and Denver are both 3-2, separated by half a win in the Season Engine at 10.5 and 10.0. The Sims have Seattle winning 57.8% of the time and Kalshi charges 58.7 cents. Wilson carries the ball for the side the model has in front more often than not, which is where the volume on his board comes from.

Emanuel Wilson Props: Rushing Yards Distribution

Start with the median rather than the average. The typical Wilson game in these simulations is 69; the average is 72.4 because a small number of large outcomes pull it upward. The middle 80% runs from 32 to 118, so eight nights in ten land somewhere inside that window, and a line anywhere near the middle of it is closer to a coin flip than its price suggests.

The best game in the 10,000 runs was 231. That is the ceiling the simulations found, not a forecast: it is the single most extreme result out of ten thousand.

Ask The Sims About Wilson Right Here

Type a question about his night, or tap one below. The Sims answer it on this page, from the same 10,000 runs, with Kalshi's live price next to it.

Line By Line

The receiving side is where it drifts. Twenty-five receiving yards is 16.1% in the simulations against 21.1 cents, 50 is 1.9 against 6.4, and three or more catches is 23.2 against 27.3. His touchdown is the widest line on the board at 41.3% against 46.7. The carries and the rushing yards, which is the bulk of what he does, the market has read the same way the model did.

Emanuel Wilson Parlays: What The Sims Price

Combining legs on the same player is not the same as multiplying their prices, because the Sims run both outcomes in the same game. Scores a TD and 70+ rushing yards land together in 2,621 of the 10,000 runs, which is 26.2%. Multiply the two Kalshi prices as if they were independent and you get 22.7%.

That gap is correlation, and it runs in the buyer's favor here: the same script that produces one leg tends to produce the other. Build the pair in the parlay builder to price it against what Kalshi asks for the combination itself.

Emanuel Wilson Touchdown Odds

The Sims put him in the end zone in 41.3% of the 10,000 runs. Kalshi charges 46.7 cents, a gap of -5.4.

Scoring splits from yardage more often than people expect, and the reason is the shape of the two outcomes. Yardage is continuous, so the simulations settle on it quickly and the market can read the same curve. A touchdown is a single discrete event that turns on red-zone trips and who finishes the drive, and a small difference in that assumption moves the price far more than it moves a yards line.

How To Read These Numbers

The Sims column is what 10,000 simulations of this game produce. The Kalshi column is the all-in price, the ask plus Kalshi's taker fee. A gap of a cent or less is noise, and treating it as an edge is how prop content loses people. Two cents or more is a disagreement with a number attached, and it is the only kind reported here.

Fifty-eight contracts and not one clears two cents for a buyer. The rushing rungs agree to within a tenth of a cent, and the handful that disagree all ask the buyer to pay extra.

This page is rewritten when the Sims re-run and keeps its address.

Sims run Wed 10:30 AM CT, Wednesday, October 14, 2026; Kalshi prices from the same build and they move before kickoff. A price in cents reads as a chance. These are market prices and model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. 21+.

More on this: Bo Nix Props: Five Lines, All About His Legs · Jaxon Smith-Njigba Props: One Line Beats The Price · Jaylen Waddle Props: Nothing To Buy Thursday · RJ Harvey Props: The Touchdown Is Overpriced · Sam Darnold Props: The Market Forgot He Runs