NBA Free Agency Odds: Live Kalshi Prices For All 27 Player Markets

The NBA next team odds on Kalshi cover 27 players right now, from Steph Curry's 4.49 million-contract monster board down to an Aaron Gordon market that has traded 644 contracts, and the section's headline is how little of it is actually in doubt. Nineteen of the 27 boards bid 80 cents or better on their leading outcome, an implied 80%-plus that the player stays put or completes an already-reported move. Only three boards price their leader under 40 cents. Read it the way you would read a DFS slate: a wall of chalk, a handful of true leverage spots, and one giant board whose volume pattern makes no sense until you look closer. That last one is the Curry market, and the crowd has put more than a million contracts on a 4-cent price there. We will get to why.

The Quick Answer

Kalshi's NBA next team section prices 27 open player markets, about 9.57 million contracts traded in total, and treats most of the league as settled: Curry, Jayson Tatum, Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Kyrie Irving and James Harden all show 90-cent-plus prices to stay where they are. The four open boards are Kawhi Leonard (74 to 78 cents to Toronto on a trade that is agreed but on hold), Jonathan Kuminga (a three-team bidding war led by Cleveland at 33 to 34 cents), DeMar DeRozan (Miami at 29 to 31 cents) and Bradley Beal (Miami at 34 to 38 cents). The full 27-row board, the fantasy read on every open situation, and the fee math that separates a cent price from a true probability are below.

Every Open NBA Next Team Market

Every row below was pulled from the live Kalshi order book on August 10, 2026. Prices are the bid-ask range on the Yes side of each board's leading outcome; each board also carries roughly 29 other team contracts, and boards without a combined "Stays or Retires" contract carry a separate "Retires / No Team" bucket instead.

Live Kalshi order book, August 10, 2026. Some boards name the incumbent explicitly ("Stays with Golden State or Retires"); on the others, the leading team contract is either the player's current club, which settles Yes if he simply stays put, or the destination the market expects a free agent to sign with. Each board is a set of independent yes/no contracts, so the cents across all outcomes will not sum to a clean 100%.

The row worth staring at is the first one. Curry's board is nearly half the entire section's volume by itself, and here is the promised oddity: the most-traded contract on it is not the 92-cent stay market. Boston, priced at 4 to 5 cents, has traded about 1,079,000 contracts, edging the roughly 1,075,000 on "Stays with Golden State or Retires." In DFS terms, that is a min-priced narrative play drawing more roster percentage than the chalk, on the biggest slate of the offseason. The price still sits at 4 to 5 cents under seven figures of volume; the crowd just could not stop clicking the story.

The Four Boards That Are Actually Open

A board becomes interesting to a fantasy player when the outcome would actually move minutes and usage. These four qualify, and they are where I would spend my attention between now and October.

Kawhi Leonard, Toronto at 74 to 78 cents. This is the strangest price on the board once you know the context: the Clippers and Raptors agreed to a Kawhi trade on June 30, reportedly built around Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick and unprotected future firsts, but the deal is on hold while the NBA investigates whether the Clippers circumvented the salary cap, with no timetable for a resolution. So a completed-in-principle trade prices like a 3-to-1 favorite instead of a formality, and "Stays with Los Angeles C or Retires" holds a real 14 to 15 cents of hung-jury risk. The fantasy read: Toronto Kawhi would be a first-option usage hub on a roster that reportedly sends out Brandon Ingram in the deal, one of the few outcomes in this section that would reorder a team's entire projection stack.

Jonathan Kuminga, Cleveland at 33 to 34 cents. The one true bidding war. Cleveland leads, the Lakers sit at 30 to 31, Minnesota at 17 to 19, and Atlanta, where he finished last season, at 8 to 9. Reporting has him turning down a two-year, $10 million offer from the Lakers while asking for something closer to $15 to 20 million a year, which is why no outcome can separate from the pack. Note the volume: the Lakers contract has traded about 134,300 contracts against roughly 75,000 on the Cleveland leader. The crowd is buying the bigger market's story; the price still says Cleveland. For fantasy, the destinations are not close to equivalent: a Cleveland wing rotation is crowded, while the thinner benches in this race would hand him the kind of minutes floor that makes a young high-usage forward draftable everywhere.

DeMar DeRozan, Miami at 29 to 31 cents. DeRozan is a true free agent after Sacramento let him go, and the market prices a four-way scatter: Miami leads, Cleveland at 22 to 24, Denver at 13 to 14, Washington at 11 to 12. Miami is the reported frontrunner, with the reporting casting DeRozan as a top Heat fallback after LeBron James chose Philadelphia, but nothing separates 30 cents from certainty. The destinations are not fantasy-equivalent, and this very table says so: Denver at 13 to 14 cents already prices Jokic at 95 to 96 cents to stay, so DeRozan there is a complementary scorer at best, while Washington at 11 to 12 cents carries both Trae Young and Anthony Davis at 90-plus cents on their own boards. This board is really a usage-rate market wearing a city question, and the answer decides whether his possessions survive the move.

Bradley Beal, Miami at 34 to 38 cents. The thinnest of the four, about 30,600 contracts, after Beal opted out of his Clippers deal. Boston trades at 14 to 18 cents behind Miami. The injury history is the whole projection: he appeared in just six games last season before it ended early, so whichever team signs him is buying a wide-variance minutes profile, and a thin book pricing a wide-variance player is exactly where stale quotes live. Treat every Beal number here as softer than the ranges around it.

When these situations resolve and real rotations form, the landing spots stop being narrative and start being slate math, which is the point where NBA DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub take over from a prediction market as the sharper tool.

The Chalk Still Has Reads In It

The settled boards are not all equally settled, and the gaps are informative. Kevin Durant's "stays with Houston" price is the softest superstar chalk at 81 to 82 cents, with Philadelphia holding a real 8-to-9-cent tail; that is the market keeping a live sliver of the one move that would blow up a projection set. Anthony Davis shows 92 to 94 cents to stay in Washington, but he became extension-eligible on August 6, the Wizards have publicly said they want him while reportedly rebuffing outside interest, and that contract conversation is the only thing between this board and Draymond Green's 99 cents. Trae Young's 98 to 99 cents is what an agreed four-year, $212 million commitment looks like when a market prices it.

The sneaky row is Trey Murphy III: 67 to 69 cents is the weakest leading "stays" price in the section, with Golden State at 3 to 6 cents heading a long tail of suitors. No volume spike on his board says drama, but two-in-three is not a lock, and a callback to the table shows his ~281,900 contracts traded ranks eighth, ahead of Harden and Kyrie. Quiet volume on a soft stay price is the market equivalent of a player whose ownership projection keeps drifting up all afternoon. And Zion Williamson's 72-to-85-cent spread is not an opinion at all; it is a thin book refusing to commit, the same reason his teammate Murphy reads cleaner than he does.

For a DFS audience the summary is simple: outside the hung Kawhi trade, the market prices zero involuntary usage shakeups among the true stars. Every other superstar board is chalk to stay. The volatility, and therefore the fantasy leverage, is concentrated in the four open boards above, and you can try the Sims free to see how much a single landing spot swings a player's simmed range once lineups are real.

How To Read These Prices (And What Fees Do To Them)

An event contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the crowd's probability: Kawhi's 76-cent midpoint to Toronto is roughly a 76% implied chance. Kalshi's published trading fee formula, 0.07 times contracts times price times one minus price, shifts that a little. Fill 100 Toronto contracts at 76 cents and the fee is 0.07 x 100 x 0.76 x 0.24, about $1.28 on a $76 position, so the true break-even sits near 77.3%, not 76%. Fees bite hardest near 50 cents, the neighborhood where the open boards trade, and barely at all on the 95-cent chalk.

Two more habits keep this table honest. First, because every team contract is an independent yes/no market, the implied probabilities on a single board add up to more than 100% once you count 30 one-cent longshots; that overage is structure, not signal, so never de-vig these like a sportsbook market. Second, trust the bid-ask range, not the last trade. Sabonis's board shows a 50-cent last print on Toronto against a live 3-to-4-cent book, and Kawhi's board shows a 16-cent Golden State print against a 0-to-4-cent book. Those prints are fossils from thin moments, the same way Tuesday's ownership projection is a fossil by Friday.

FAQ

Where Will Kawhi Leonard Play Next Season?

Kalshi prices Toronto at 74 to 78 cents, roughly a 76% implied chance, with "Stays with Los Angeles C or Retires" at 14 to 15 cents. The trade is agreed in principle but on hold pending the NBA's investigation into the Clippers' cap conduct, which is why the market will not price it like a done deal.

Which NBA Star Is Most Likely To Change Teams?

Among stars still under contract with a team, Kawhi Leonard is the only one priced as more likely to move than stay. Every other superstar board, including Curry, Tatum, Jokic, Embiid, Durant and Irving, prices staying put at 81 cents or better as of August 10, 2026.

How Do NBA Next Team Markets Settle?

Each board settles when the player's next team becomes official, and per the market rules each contract closes and expires early if the event occurs before the October 2026 expiration. If a player simply remains on his current roster through the settlement date, the incumbent contract settles Yes. Retirement is handled differently by board: some fold it into a combined "Stays with X or Retires" contract, while the rest carry a separate "Retires / No Team" bucket.

Are These Odds A Prediction?

They are a live crowd estimate, not a forecast of fact and not financial advice. Event contracts are for adults 18 and older where legal, availability varies by state as of August 2026, and one reported agreement can repaint a board in minutes. This page runs on live prices and public reporting; our price-blind AI model panel adds its own per-board verdicts on the page's next refresh, with every panel seat graded against real settlements.

The Bottom Line

The 2026 NBA next team market is a chalk slate with four live spots, and the section has already graded one board this cycle: the LeBron James market settled to Philadelphia in July, turning months of speculation that long priced Miami as the favorite into a single print. That is the standing lesson of this page. Prices stayed honest while attention chased stories, on the Curry board to the tune of a million contracts on a 4-cent outcome. Track the four open boards, treat the chalk as a minutes-certainty map, and read volume the way you read ownership: as a measure of what the field loves, not what is likely. For more boards read this way, start at our sports prediction markets hub. Tyreek Hill's next team board runs this same volume-versus-price test on a single player, and the favorite there is not a team at all. The award markets stretch the experiment across whole fields of candidates: this league's NBA MVP odds and NBA Rookie of the Year odds show the crowd chasing preseason narrative the same way it chased Boston Curry, and the MLB Rookie of the Year odds and Heisman Trophy odds prove the pattern is not a basketball quirk. The prices will move; the reading habit is the durable part.