Ask The Sims Wins: Winston's 1.7% Ticket Hit
By Jake Hari
October 12, 2026
On Saturday morning, a reader asked Ask The Sims how often Jameis Winston would throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns against Washington. The Sims said 1.7%, or +5680.
Winston threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns.
That was the longest shot to cash all Sunday. Across Sunday's 13 games, readers got 947 parlays from Ask The Sims, and only 173 hit. Here are seven of the winners, longest odds first.
| Ticket | Chance | How it hit |
|---|---|---|
| Winston 300+ yds, 3+ TDs | 1.7% (+5680) | 326 yds, 3 TDs |
| Watson 2+ TDs, 100+ yds | 3.9% (+2438) | 143 yds, 2 TDs |
| LaPorta, Gibbs, McBride all score | 10.8% (+829) | All three scored |
| Bowers 6+ rec, 100+ yds, TD | 13.4% (+648) | 8 rec, 110 yds, TD |
| Ravens by 2+, Henry 90+ and TD, Penix under 2 TDs | 14.0% (+614) | 30-23, Henry 102 + TD |
| Shipley TD, Pierce 10+ yds, Goedert 5+ rec | 14.3% (+601) | All three |
| Parker Washington 6+ rec, 2 TDs, 100+ yds (live) | 19.2% (+422) | 6 rec, 124 yds, 2 TDs |
Tonight it's Bills at Rams (8:15 PM ET), and Ask The Sims is already open for it. Ask your question here →
Winston 300 and 3 TDs at +5680
The question came in Saturday at 9:52 AM ET: "How often does winston throw 300 yards with 3 tds?" Each leg was a long shot on its own. Together, the Sims had them at 1.7%.
This wasn't a value edge. It was the longest shot a reader asked about all weekend that actually hit: Giants 27, Commanders 27 in overtime, with Winston at 33 completions, 326 yards and three scores.
Re-asked against Sunday's final pregame Sims, it came back even lower, at 1.2%.
Watson 2 TDs and 143 Yards at +2438
About 90 minutes before kickoff, a reader asked for "Christian Watson 2+ TDs and 100 yards receiving." The Sims had it a tick above its Kalshi price: a thin edge, and it cashed.
Green Bay ran Chicago off the field 31-7, and Watson had 143 yards and both scores.
LaPorta, Gibbs, McBride All Score at +829
Twenty-one minutes before kickoff, a reader asked for three touchdown scorers from both sides of Lions-Cardinals. Gibbs was the easy leg at 74% to score. LaPorta, at 34%, was the hard one.
Detroit put up 45, which left room for all three, and McBride got his for Arizona in the 45-21 loss.
Bowers 6 Catches, 100 Yards and a TD at +648
Two hours before kickoff in New England, a reader asked for "Bowers 6+ catches 100+ yards 1+ TD's." All three legs were on one tight end, and his team lost by 28.
Losing teams keep throwing, and the Sims play that out: Bowers had a 13.4% chance to clear all three. Las Vegas chased all afternoon, and he got there.
Ravens-Henry 4-Leg at +614, No Lamar
The reader typed "best 4 leg parlay if ravens win" on Saturday morning, and the Sims built the ticket. It was one of three tickets returned. The Sims priced it at 14¢; on Kalshi it was about 10¢.
Lamar Jackson ended up out and Tyler Huntley started. The ticket still held: Baltimore won 30-23, Derrick Henry ran for 102 yards and caught a touchdown, and Michael Penix Jr. threw one touchdown.
Shipley, Pierce, Goedert at +601 From Five Words
Late Saturday night, on the FanDuel simulator, a reader typed five words: "Build me a 3 leg parlay." No players named. The Sims built three tickets, and two cashed in London.
FanDuel's price on the top ticket (Shipley TD, Pierce 10+ rushing yards, Goedert 5+ catches) was +910; the Sims had it at +601. Shipley got his touchdown on just five carries. Its +235 rushing-yards ticket hit too.
Parker Washington Live at +422
This one was asked during the game. In the first quarter in London, right after Parker Washington's first touchdown, a reader asked if he'd get to 6 catches, score again and reach 100 yards.
With that first score already on the board, the live Sims gave him a 19.2% shot to finish the ticket. He finished with 6 catches, 124 yards and two touchdowns as Jacksonville won 19-17.
A note on the cards: the table shows what each reader saw. The Winston, Watson and LaPorta cards are fresh re-asks, a few tenths off; the other four are rebuilt from the reader's answer.
Your Turn: Bills at Rams Tonight
Monday night is Bills at Rams, 8:15 PM ET, and the Sims for it are already built. I asked "Best 3-leg parlay if the Bills win" this morning. The Sims give Buffalo a 41% chance to win.
The top answer was Bills win, Matthew Stafford under 3 passing TDs and Kyren Williams under 2 TDs. The Sims price it at 30¢; on Kalshi it's around 26¢.
Ask the Bills-Rams question you actually care about. A few that work:
- "How often does Josh Allen throw 2 TDs and run one in?"
- "Puka Nacua 8+ catches and a touchdown"
- "Best 3-leg parlay if the Rams win"
Ask The Sims any Bills vs. Rams question in the free Kalshi Parlay Simulator: it answers from 10,000 runs of tonight's game, with the price beside it.
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