NFL Week 1 Predictions: Way-Too-Early Market Odds For All 16 Games

Thirty-seven days before the first kickoff, thousands of traders have already put real money on every single Week 1 game. That is the quiet superpower of prediction markets: you do not have to wait for pundit picks in September, because the crowd's forecast is live right now, and it is sharper than any August power ranking. Here is what that money says about all 16 openers, including a Super Bowl rematch on a Wednesday night, two true coin flips, and one favorite priced above 80 cents.

The Quick Answer

The market makes Seattle a 64-cent favorite (about a 64% implied win probability) over New England in the September 9 opener, a rematch of the Seahawks' 29-13 Super Bowl LX win, and prices Seattle -3.5 on the only Week 1 spread market with real quotes so far. The two closest games on the board are Bills at Texans and Packers at Vikings, both trading within a cent of 50/50, while the Chargers are the biggest favorite of the week at 81.5 cents against Arizona. The full 16-game board, game-by-game reads, and the two quarterback battles the market refuses to call are all below.

New to event markets? The plain-English walkthrough is here: How To Bet NFL On Kalshi.

Jump To A Game

Wednesday: Patriots at Seahawks · Thursday: 49ers at Rams Sunday early: Buccaneers at Bengals · Saints at Lions · Jets at Titans · Ravens at Colts · Falcons at Steelers · Bears at Panthers · Browns at Jaguars · Bills at Texans Sunday late: Dolphins at Raiders · Packers at Vikings · Commanders at Eagles · Cardinals at Chargers Sunday night: Cowboys at Giants · Monday: Broncos at Chiefs

Price Check: August 3, 2026

Every price on this page comes straight from Kalshi's live order book, fetched August 3, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET. This block and The Board refresh as the market moves between now and kickoff, so the stamp above always tells you how fresh the numbers are.

• Biggest favorite: Los Angeles Chargers, 81.5c over Arizona
• Closest games: Green Bay at Minnesota (50.5c/50.0c) and Buffalo at Houston (49.5c/48.5c)
• Only priced spread so far: Seattle -3.5 in the opener; the other 15 spread ladders are listed but not yet quoted

The Board: All 16 Games

Prices are the midpoint of Kalshi's live quotes in cents, as of August 3, 2026. A cents price reads as an implied win probability, so 64.5c means roughly a 64% to 65% chance; the full cents-to-odds conversion takes about a minute to learn. Spread column shows the one game whose spread ladder has real quotes so far.

The Market Card

How To Read These Predictions

A prediction market price is the crowd's price tag on a maybe. When Seattle trades at 64.5 cents, traders who think the Seahawks are likelier than that buy, traders who disagree sell, and the price settles where real money balances. That is why market prices in August beat most published power rankings: anyone who knows something can move the number, and being wrong costs them money. How prediction markets work covers the mechanics in depth.

Two more context layers appear throughout the game reads below. First, Kalshi's season win-total ladders for all 32 teams tell you how the market rates each roster over 17 games, which is the cleanest single strength signal available in August. Second, Kalshi lists Week 1 starting-quarterback markets for nine teams, and in two of those the market is far from certain who takes the first snap. Our companion piece on fantasy football prediction markets walks the full win-total and award-market landscape.

Patriots At Seahawks: The Super Bowl LX Rematch

Seattle 64.5c, New England 34.5c. Spread: Seattle -3.5, 48 cents bid. Wednesday, September 9, 8:20 PM ET, NBC.

The season opens with the first Week 1 Super Bowl rematch since 2016, and the first Wednesday opener of the modern era, which also makes it the first Wednesday game in Patriots history. Seattle beat New England 29-13 in February for the franchise's second title, and the market expects a similar shape: the champs are priced at about 64% at Lumen Field behind Sam Darnold, who arrived on his fifth NFL team and promptly quarterbacked the league's third-best scoring offense to a ring. The win-total ladders frame this as heavyweight against heavyweight, with Seattle priced at 57 cents to win 11 or more games and New England at 54 cents to win 10 or more. The one live spread market says the gap is a field goal and a hook.

49ers At Rams: Thursday Night On Netflix

Rams 65.5c, San Francisco 34.5c. Thursday, September 10, 8:35 PM ET, Netflix.

Night two is a division war streamed on Netflix, and the market's respect for the Rams is striking. Los Angeles carries the highest win-total bar on all of Kalshi, priced at 56 cents to win 12 or more games; no other team's 50/50 strike sits that high. The Niners are no pushover by the same measure, at 56 cents for 10-plus wins, yet the market still hands the Rams nearly two-to-one odds at home, an implied 65.5%, in the early season's most lopsided marquee matchup. When a team is priced this far above a quality rival, the crowd is usually saying the roster gap is real rather than just home field.

Buccaneers At Bengals

Cincinnati 64.0c, Tampa Bay 35.5c. Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM ET, FOX.

The market rates Cincinnati a clear home favorite at about 64%, and the season-long ladders explain why: the Bengals sit at 48 cents to reach 11 wins, a top-tier bar, while Tampa Bay's 50/50 number is a more modest eight wins at 57 cents. That is a two-to-three win talent gap in the market's eyes. The Bucs opening on the road against an AFC contender is the kind of spot where an early-season market rarely gives the visitor much credit, and this price fits that pattern.

Saints At Lions

Detroit 75.5c, New Orleans 25.0c. Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM ET, FOX.

Detroit at three-to-one, an implied 75.5%, is among the biggest favorites of the week. The interesting wrinkle is that the market does not actually hate this Saints roster: New Orleans prices at 56 cents to win eight or more games, a respectable middle-class number. The crowd simply rates the Lions among the league's elite, at 52 cents to reach 11 wins, and elite at home against middle-class usually lands right around 75 cents. If you want a first test of whether the market is too low on the Saints, this is it.

Jets At Titans

Tennessee 56.5c, Jets 44.0c. Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM ET, CBS.

The market prices this as the closest thing to a toss-up outside the two true coin flips, with Tennessee a modest home favorite. Geno Smith is all but locked in as the Jets' Week 1 starter after the trade from Las Vegas, priced at 93 cents in Kalshi's starting-quarterback market. The win totals say these are two rebuilding rosters, with the Titans at 50 cents for seven wins and the Jets at 48 cents for six, so a 12-cent gap here is mostly home field plus a small talent edge.

Ravens At Colts

Baltimore 63.5c, Indianapolis 36.5c. Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM ET, CBS.

Baltimore is the biggest road favorite of Week 1, and the market's conviction runs deep: the Ravens' 58 cents to win 11-plus games is the strongest main-number price on any team's win ladder. Indianapolis is priced as a fringe playoff roster at 54 cents for eight wins. A 63.5-cent road price against a healthy middle-of-the-pack team is the market telling you it considers Baltimore a true contender; few Week 1 visitors earn that treatment in a building as loud as Indy's.

Falcons At Steelers: Tua Meets Rodgers

Pittsburgh 58.5c, Atlanta 41.0c. Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM ET, FOX.

Two of the offseason's biggest quarterback stories collide at Acrisure Stadium. The market makes Tua Tagovailoa a 74-cent favorite to take Atlanta's first snap after his move from Miami, with Michael Penix Jr. at 18 cents while he works back from last year's knee injury. Across the field, Aaron Rodgers is priced at 90 cents to start for Pittsburgh. The strangest number in this game is on the season ladders, where both teams sit at exactly 44 cents on their main win-total strike (nine wins for the Steelers, eight for the Falcons). The market sees two teams of nearly identical quality and is charging 58.5 cents for Pittsburgh's home field and quarterback certainty.

Bears At Panthers

Chicago 58.5c, Carolina 42.5c. Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM ET, FOX.

Chicago as a road favorite is one of the quieter statements on the board. The Bears' ladder prices them at 46 cents for 10-plus wins, an ambitious bar for a team the market still makes only a modest favorite here, while Carolina sits at 55 cents for seven wins. Read together, the crowd believes in Chicago's ceiling but is not ready to price a young roster as a heavy favorite anywhere on the road. This is the early-window game most likely to move sharply once September practice reports start flowing.

Browns At Jaguars: Watson Or Sanders

Jacksonville 77.0c, Cleveland 24.0c. Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM ET, CBS.

Here is the week's most fascinating quarterback market: Kalshi prices Cleveland's Week 1 starter at 52 cents Deshaun Watson, 46 cents Shedeur Sanders. That is a competition the market refuses to call, which matches a camp where the two have alternated first-team reps day by day and the staff has said no decision comes before late August. The uncertainty is a real cost: Jacksonville at 77 cents, an implied 77%, is the second-biggest favorite of the week, and the Jaguars' own ladder (46 cents for 10 wins) suggests the market expects a leap year in Duval. A named starter and a clean August could pull Cleveland's 24 cents up quickly, which makes this the board's most volatile price.

Bills At Texans: The Coin Flip Of The Week

Buffalo 49.5c, Houston 48.5c. Sunday, September 13, 1:00 PM ET, CBS.

One cent separates these teams, and it is not because the market is unsure about them; it is because it rates both this highly. Buffalo prices at 56 cents to win 11-plus games, Houston at 47 cents for the same 11-win bar, two of the heaviest season numbers on the exchange. When two 11-win-caliber teams meet and home field roughly cancels the talent edge, you get a true 50/50, and traders have priced exactly that. Expect this pair of prices to move together like a seesaw all August; whichever side you think the crowd is sleeping on, the market is charging you almost nothing for the disagreement. For the conference-level view of these AFC heavyweights, the AFC Championship market board runs the same exercise one level up.

Dolphins At Raiders: Kirk Cousins Again

Las Vegas 64.0c, Miami 35.5c. Sunday, September 13, 4:25 PM ET, FOX.

Both quarterbacks here are new. Kirk Cousins is priced at 90 cents to start for the Raiders, who signed him in free agency and drafted Fernando Mendoza first overall to develop behind him; Malik Willis is at 90 cents for Miami after Tua's departure to Atlanta. The market's real verdict is on the season ladders, where Miami's main strike is a bleak 55 cents to win just four or more games, one of the two grimmest team prices on the exchange. Las Vegas at seven wins (46 cents) is hardly a powerhouse bar, but against this version of the Dolphins the market makes home field plus a veteran quarterback worth nearly two-to-one.

Packers At Vikings: The Other Coin Flip

Minnesota 50.5c, Green Bay 50.0c. Sunday, September 13, 4:25 PM ET, CBS.

Half a cent. That is the market's margin in a rivalry game with a brand-new headline: Kyler Murray is priced at 84 cents to make his Vikings debut as the Week 1 starter after Arizona moved on from him, with J.J. McCarthy at 16 cents in a competition the market considers mostly settled. The ladders make this flip logical, with Green Bay at 55 cents for 10 wins and Minnesota at 55 cents for nine, close enough that a healthy quarterback question on either side could tip the whole price. A divisional coin flip in the 4:25 window is about the best opening Sunday closer the schedule makers could have drawn.

Commanders At Eagles

Philadelphia 67.0c, Washington 33.0c. Sunday, September 13, 4:25 PM ET, FOX.

The market gives Philadelphia two-to-one at home, an implied 67%, in the NFC East's opening statement game, leaving Washington at 33%. The Eagles' season ladder is priced at 45 cents to reach 11 wins, still one of the higher bars in the league even though it sits below the 50-cent line, while Washington's main number is eight wins at 55 cents. Divisional familiarity usually compresses these prices; 67 cents is on the high side for a home divisional favorite, which tells you the crowd sees a real class gap rather than a typical NFC East rock fight.

Cardinals At Chargers: The Biggest Favorite

Chargers 81.5c, Arizona 18.5c. Sunday, September 13, 4:25 PM ET, CBS.

The widest price of Week 1, and the season markets explain every cent of it. Arizona's win ladder centers at four wins (60 cents to win four or more), the bleakest team forecast on the exchange, and the market prices Jacoby Brissett at 92 cents to start at quarterback after the Kyler Murray trade, with rookie Carson Beck at 6 cents. The Chargers, at 56 cents for 10-plus wins, are simply a playoff-caliber roster hosting the team the market rates last. An 81.5% implied probability in Week 1 is rare because September uncertainty usually caps favorites in the 70s; the crowd is making an exception here.

Cowboys At Giants: Sunday Night

Dallas 57.5c, Giants 43.5c. Sunday, September 13, 8:20 PM ET, NBC.

Sunday night brings a rivalry the market prices closer than the noise around these franchises suggests. Dallas is a road favorite at 57.5 cents, backed by a ladder at 53 cents for 10 wins, while the Giants' main number is eight wins at 54 cents. A five-ish point gap in implied probability for a prime-time divisional game is modest, and prime-time unders on drama are not a market category, so read this simply: the crowd expects a competitive game and gives the better roster the edge on the road.

Broncos At Chiefs: Mahomes Monday

Kansas City 58.0c, Denver 42.0c. Monday, September 14, 8:15 PM ET, ESPN/ABC.

Week 1 closes with its biggest human story. Patrick Mahomes is priced at 86 cents, an 86% chance, to start this game, nine months removed from the torn ACL and LCL that ended his December, after being cleared for full practice in camp; Justin Fields sits at 12 cents as the hedge. The award markets tell the same cautious story about the league's most famous knee: our NFL MVP model verdict covers a market that fades Mahomes and a model panel that does not. That 14 cents of doubt is doing real work in the game price, because 58 cents is a thin edge for Kansas City at Arrowhead against a division rival. The ladders agree these teams are close, with the Chiefs at 56 cents and the Broncos at 52 cents for the same 10-win bar. If August practice reports keep trending the way the quarterback market implies, expect Kansas City's price to climb; if they wobble, Monday night becomes the week's third coin flip.

What Happens To These Prices Next

Way-too-early is the entire point of this page, and it cuts both ways. These prices will move, some of them a lot, as camp battles resolve, spread books fill in, and preseason film lands. The board and Price Check block above refresh from the live feed on the same URL, so the dated stamp always tells you what vintage you are reading, and we will revisit the biggest movers as kickoff approaches. Once the games settle, the market's Week 1 forecasts get graded on our public scoreboard, alongside every model call we have published.

To be explicit about what this page is: these are market prices, the live consensus of real traders' money, not our picks and not a promise about outcomes. Where our AI panel publishes numbers on markets like these, those are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice; models are frequently wrong, and so, sometimes, is the market. Trading involves fees and spread costs on top of the quoted price, event contracts are for adults 18+, and availability varies by state as of August 2026.

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