Sim 95 of 10,000: Texans 50, Jaguars 47, In Overtime

Twenty-One In The First Quarter

Houston's first drive was two plays long: an incompletion to Dalton Schultz, then a 66-yard touchdown, C.J. Stroud to Nico Collins, at 14:48 of the first quarter. Bhayshul Tuten answered with a 32-yard touchdown run at 12:43. Stroud hit Collins again from 13 yards at 9:55 and Woody Marks from 10 at 4:39, and Chris Rodriguez Jr. ran in from 4 with 50 seconds left in the quarter. After one quarter it was 21-14, five touchdowns on six drives, in a game the market priced at 42.5 points.

Trevor Lawrence found Jakobi Meyers from 2 yards at 11:02 of the second to tie it, and Ka'imi Fairbairn's 37-yard field goal at 5:24 sent Houston to the half up 24-21. Fairbairn added a 36-yarder in the third, and Lawrence ran it in from the 1 with 40 seconds left in the quarter to put Jacksonville ahead for the first time, 28-27.

The Safety And The Two

Rodriguez scored from 12 yards at 14:39 of the fourth, 35-27. Stroud to Collins from 19 at 10:31, with the extra point missed, made it 35-33. Then Stroud was sacked in his own end zone at 9:29, a safety, 37-33, and Lawrence hit Brian Thomas Jr. for 15 yards and a touchdown at 8:40. Jacksonville 44, Houston 33, with eight and a half minutes left.

Stroud to Collins from 5 yards at 4:07, Collins's fourth touchdown of the game, and a two-point conversion made it 44-41. Fairbairn's 43-yard field goal with one second on the clock tied it at 44. In overtime Cam Little kicked a 49-yarder at 6:41 for Jacksonville, and Stroud ended it with a 20-yard touchdown pass to Jaylin Noel at 2:28. Houston 50, Jacksonville 47.

The box score of a 97-point game: Stroud 40 of 67 for 546 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions; Lawrence 18 of 31 for 260 and two, plus the rushing score; Collins 11 catches for 179 yards and four touchdowns on 17 targets; Parker Washington five for 105; Thomas four for 90 and a score; Tuten 10 carries for 74 and a touchdown; Rodriguez 13 for 52 and two; Marks 18 carries for 58 yards and a touchdown catch. Houston ran 92 offensive plays to Jacksonville's 62 and picked up 29 first downs. Twenty-seven drives, 196 plays, no turnovers by either team.

How Rare It Is

Counted across the first 1,000 Sims of this game:

A 97-point game is a one-in-a-thousand game. Seventy points is one in 45, and a Stroud 400-yard day is one in 100. The thing that makes Sim 95 rare is not any one of those; it is all of them in the same game, with no turnovers to stop either offense.

What It Says About Sunday Morning

Sim 95 is a story about Stroud throwing 67 times and Collins catching 11 of them. Across the first 1,000 runs, Stroud's median is 238 passing yards on 37 attempts and Collins's median is 70 receiving yards, so this game is more than double the ordinary day for both. But the shape holds: when Houston has to throw, the ball goes to Collins, and the Sims give Houston enough trailing second halves that Stroud's attempts have a far end of the range. That tail is why the London picks page buys Stroud over 31 attempts and the attempts ladder calls 31 the floor.

The other half of Sim 95 cuts the other way. Houston scored 50 and still needed overtime, because Jacksonville's run game kept answering: Tuten and Rodriguez carried 23 times for 126 yards and three touchdowns, and Rodriguez had both of Jacksonville's running-back touchdowns. That is Jacksonville's usual script inside a game that was anything but usual, and it is why the touchdown page likes Rodriguez at a long shot's price. The median game is Jacksonville by two with 43 points; Sim 95 is the far end of the same range, not a different one.

Ask The Sims

Ask the next one.

Type "How often do the Texans score 50?" into Ask the Sims and it counts the answer across all 10,000 runs, with the Kalshi price beside it. In the first thousand, it happened once.

If you think Sunday morning goes differently, ask. Every answer counts the 10,000 Sims and shows the price beside it, free, no login, in the Kalshi Combo Simulator.

Sims run Saturday, Oct. 17, 2026, 7:16 a.m. UTC (2:16 a.m. CT); rarity counts from Sims 0 to 999 of that run; the 43-point median total is across all 10,000, the player medians from the same thousand. The Sims do not model penalties, timeouts or defensive and return touchdowns. Play descriptions are the play log's own words. Kickoff Sunday, Oct. 18, 9:30 a.m. ET at Wembley Stadium.

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