NFL MVP Odds 2026

Kalshi prices as of Saturday, September 5, 2026, 3:33 PM ET.

The Quick Answer

Josh Allen is the top price on Kalshi's MVP Winner board at 11 cents, and he is the only name up there trading above 10. Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow are right behind him at 10 apiece, with Justin Herbert at 9. That is a four-deep front group packed inside a two-cent band, which is about as flat as a season-long futures board gets. None of those four moved off yesterday's close.

The Odds Board

Two Names Moved, And Neither Was A Favorite

The entire day's price action on the named board is Dak Prescott going from 6 to 7 and Drake Maye going from 7 to 6. Everything else printed the same number it printed yesterday. That is not a quiet corner of the board either, since Prescott was one of the three busiest contracts of the last 24 hours.

Zoom out to the seven-day closes and the picture holds. Allen closed at 10 on Friday, August 28, moved to 11 on Saturday, August 29, and has closed 11 every day since through Friday, September 4, a range of 10 to 11 for the whole week. Jackson closed 10 on all eight of those days, a range of 10 to 10, which is the flattest line on the board. Burrow slipped to 9 on Monday, August 31 and was back at 10 by Tuesday, September 1. Herbert did the opposite, holding 10 through Monday, August 31 and then closing 9 on Tuesday, September 1 and every day after. Stafford chopped between 6 and 7 all week without ever leaving that range.

So the one real weekly change at the top is Herbert coming off 10, and it was a one-cent slide that stuck rather than a reprice. Everyone else is where they were eight closes ago.

Worth noting how that compares to the language around the market. Sports Illustrated ran "Why Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen Is the Overwhelming Favorite for NFL MVP" on September 2, and BetMGM published "NFL MVP Odds 2026: Allen (+650) Starts Season as Favorite" the same day. On Kalshi, "overwhelming" is 11 against a pair of 10s.

The Shape Says Nobody Has A Favorite Yet

Fourteen names are priced at 3 or better, and another 31 sit at 3 or less. Read it in tiers and the board is a staircase with no top step: 11, then 10 and 10, then 9, then a wall of four names at 7 in Stafford, Patrick Mahomes, Caleb Williams and Prescott, then Maye at 6, Brock Purdy and Jordan Love at 5, Jayden Daniels and Trevor Lawrence at 4, and Jalen Hurts at 3.

For anyone pricing correlated season-long bets, that flatness is the number that matters more than who is on top. The gap from first to fourth is 11 to 9. The gap from fourth to eighth is 9 to 7. You have to get all the way down to Hurts before a name on the main board is trading at a third of the favorite's price. A board this compressed is one that has not been given a reason to pick yet.

The coverage is spread out the same way. Cincinnati's futures got their own writeup at CBS Sports on August 27, "Bengals 2026 NFL futures odds: Bettors backing Joe Burrow for MVP, but will Cincy's new defense step up?", and Burrow is at 10. FOX Sports framed it on September 5 as "2026 NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen Favored; Can Mahomes Challenge?", and Mahomes is priced in that group of four at 7. The New York Times went further afield on September 4 with "Can Bijan Robinson win MVP? Plus: Backstory on Patriots drama". Robinson is not among the 14 names priced at 3 or better, so he is in the group of 31 at 3 or less.

Where The Volume Went Does Not Match Where The Prices Are

This is the part I would actually trade off. Open contracts across the board sit at about 10,483,219, with about 11,631,540 traded since the market opened, so most of the lifetime volume is still sitting in open positions rather than churn. The last 24 hours brought about 193,549 contracts.

The busiest names in that window are not the ones on top. Bo Nix led with 38,363 contracts, Hurts was second at 23,188, and Prescott was third at 12,448. Nix does not appear among the 14 names at 3 or better, which puts him in the group priced at 3 or less, and he still traded more contracts yesterday than anyone. Hurts is the cheapest name on the main board at 3 and took the second-most volume. Only one of the three busiest, Prescott, produced a price change, and it was a single cent.

That is the tell to watch over the next week. Volume is concentrating in cheap contracts while the 9-to-11 group sits still. Cheap contracts move in bigger relative steps when they do move, so the first real repricing on this board is more likely to come from something at 3 or 4 doubling than from Allen going to 13. If you are building a season-long position, the front four are priced within two cents of each other and the volume is telling you the action is somewhere else entirely.

The other thing to watch is Herbert. He is the only name in the top group that has already given a cent back and held the lower number for four straight closes, and Maye's move from 7 to 6 is the only other downward tick on the named board.

About The Numbers

Every price here comes from Kalshi's MVP Winner? market, quoted as of the dateline above. A price of 11 cents means the market gives that outcome about an 11% chance, so the chance column and the cent price are the same number read two ways. The settlement rule on the Allen contract reads, verbatim: "If Josh Allen wins the Pro Football AP Regular Season MVP in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes." Every other name on the board carries the same rule with their own name in it, and the market closes 2028-02-12. One thing that trips people up on a board like this: each candidate is a separate yes/no contract with its own bid and ask, so adding every priced name's chance together gets you past a full board's worth of certainty rather than landing exactly on it. That gap is the spread and the overround, not a mispricing you can pick up for free.