NFL Week 6 Predictions for Every Game: No Lamar, Bet the Browns
By Jake Hari
October 13, 2026
My best bet of NFL Week 6 is the Browns to beat the Ravens: 33.7¢ (+197) on Polymarket, and Cleveland wins 36.6% of our Sims.
Lamar Jackson is listed as out. Tyler Huntley starts, and Baltimore is still a 4.5-point road favorite. The Sims still pick the Ravens, just not as often as that number does.
Here are all 14 games, Thursday through Monday night. For each one: who wins in 10,000 Sims, how often, the median score, and the one bet the Sims like most, at whichever of Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings or FanDuel pays best.
Every bet has a link. Tap it and Ask The Sims answers that exact question on this page, free.
Then ask your own. Pick any game in the box below and type a question about any player or team.
Week 6 Predictions at a Glance
| Game | Sims pick | Best bet |
|---|---|---|
| SEA at DEN | SEA 57.0% | Over 42.5 (+124) |
| HOU vs JAX | JAX 55.5% | JAX by 4+ (+129) |
| BAL at CLE | BAL 62.2% | CLE to win (+197) |
| CAR at PHI | PHI 50.9% | PHI by 7+ (+216) |
| CHI at ATL | CHI 59.6% | ATL -4.5 (+285) |
| NO at NYG | NO 50.1% | NO -6.5 (+230) |
| NYJ at NE | NE 72.0% | NYJ to win (+295) |
| PIT at TB | PIT 57.0% | PIT by 4+ (+124) |
| TEN at IND | IND 70.1% | TEN to win (+276) |
| ARI at LA | LA 83.2% | Under 51.5 (+105) |
| BUF at LV | BUF 66.3% | LV by 3+ (+295) |
| LAC at KC | KC 75.5% | LAC to win (+360) |
| DAL at GB | GB 50.0% | Golden 6+ rec (+161) |
| WAS at SF | SF 74.2% | SF by 15+ (+229) |
The Sims are 10,000 runs of each game, made Tuesday, Oct. 13, between 1:30 and 4:50 a.m. CT. Prices were read Tuesday at 7:12 a.m. CT, fee included on Kalshi and Polymarket. Win % leaves out ties. Injuries are from Tuesday's ESPN reports.
The Sims and the market agree on most sides this week. Where they split, the Sims lean to the underdog, and six of my 14 bets are on the team the Sims expect to lose. That's not a hunch about upsets. Those are the prices that come in too long for how often the dog wins.
Browns +197 Without Lamar
Huntley was fine last week. He went 24 of 32 for 201 yards and two touchdowns in the overtime win at Atlanta. But this is a Ravens team without Jackson, center Cam Jurgens or Trey Hendrickson, playing in a building where Cleveland is 2-0.
So the game runs through Derrick Henry, who has 476 yards and seven touchdowns in five games. I asked the Sims both sides of that. When the Ravens win, Henry runs for 100+ in 56.2% of those games. When the Browns win, he's held under 80 in 58.6% of them.
That makes this a simple ticket. If you think Cleveland can keep Henry in check, Browns to win and Henry under 80 rushing yards land together in 21.5% of the Sims (+366). The moneyline alone is the bet I'd make: buy Cleveland YES at 33.7¢ on Polymarket, and I'd keep buying up to 36¢. Kalshi has it at 34.5¢ and FanDuel at +188.
Thursday Night and London
Seahawks at Broncos · Thu 8:15 PM ET, Prime Video
Sims: Seahawks 57.0% · median score 22-20
Bet: Over 42.5 at 44.7¢ (+124) on Polymarket. Sims: 47.0%.
Seattle has scored 29 or more in four straight games, and Denver will play without cornerbacks Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss. Polymarket's +124 on the over is well ahead of FanDuel (+100) and DraftKings (+103) for the same line. My Seahawks vs. Broncos page has the Jaxon Smith-Njigba bet.
Texans vs. Jaguars in London · Sun 9:30 AM ET, NFL Network
Sims: Jaguars 55.5% · median score 23-20
Bet: Jaguars by 4+ at 43.7¢ (+129) on Kalshi. Sims: 45.7%.
Jacksonville is 4-1, and two of those wins came by 24 and 29. Houston is 1-4 and lists David Montgomery as doubtful. 82% of Jaguars wins in the Sims come by 4 or more, so I'd take the margin over the moneyline at Wembley. The full London breakdown is on my Texans vs. Jaguars page.
Sunday 1 PM ET Games
Ravens at Browns · 1 PM ET, Fox
Sims: Ravens 62.2% · median score 23-19
Bet: Browns to win at 33.7¢ (+197) on Polymarket. Sims: 36.6%.
My top bet of the week. Huntley starts, Henry carries the load, and Cleveland is 2-0 at home.
Panthers at Eagles · 1 PM ET, CBS
Sims: Eagles 50.9% · median score 21-20
Bet: Eagles by 7+ at 31.6¢ (+216) on Polymarket. Sims: 33.3%.
This is a coin flip in the Sims. Philadelphia has lost three straight, and Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith are both listed out. So why the Eagles by a touchdown? Because when Philadelphia wins in the Sims, it wins by a touchdown 65% of the time, and that pays +216.
Bears at Falcons · 1 PM ET, Fox
Sims: Bears 59.6% · median score 27-23
Bet: Falcons -4.5 at +285 on FanDuel. Sims: 28.6%.
Caleb Williams is out, and Tyson Bagent threw for 87 yards and two interceptions in last week's 31-7 loss at Green Bay. The Sims have Michael Penix Jr. (questionable) playing for Atlanta and still like Chicago. But 73% of Falcons wins in the Sims come by 5 or more. Polymarket has the same bet at 26.6¢.
Saints at Giants · 1 PM ET, Fox
Sims: Saints 50.1% · median score 23-23
Bet: Saints -6.5 at +230 on FanDuel. Sims: 32.7%.
The 1-4 Saints are a slight Sims pick over a 3-1-1 Giants team, and the median score is a tie. Jameis Winston is coming off 326 yards and three touchdowns in last week's 27-27 tie with Washington. 65% of Saints wins in the Sims come by a touchdown or more. Polymarket has Saints by 7+ at 31.6¢.
Jets at Patriots · 1 PM ET, CBS
Sims: Patriots 72.0% · median score 26-17
Bet: Jets to win at 25.3¢ (+295) on Kalshi. Sims: 26.9%.
New England lists four cornerbacks as out, Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III among them. That's a real problem against Garrett Wilson, who has 31 catches already. Breece Hall is out for the Jets.
Steelers at Buccaneers · 1 PM ET, CBS
Sims: Steelers 57.0% · median score 21-20
Bet: Steelers by 4+ at 44.7¢ (+124) on Kalshi. Sims: 47.1%.
Baker Mayfield is out, so Jalon Daniels starts again. He was sharp in the 24-16 win at Dallas, 19 of 25 for 189 yards. Pittsburgh is the pick, and most Steelers wins in the Sims clear a field goal. Take the margin.
Titans at Colts · 1 PM ET, Fox
Sims: Colts 70.1% · median score 26-19
Bet: Titans to win at 26.6¢ (+276) on Polymarket. Sims: 28.7%.
I know. Tennessee is 0-5 and just lost 26-3 to Houston. But three of those losses came by six points or fewer, Indianapolis is 2-3, and Daniel Jones has thrown four interceptions to three touchdowns. This is a small bet on a bad team, but the Titans keep games close, and +276 is too long for that.
Sunday Afternoon Games
Cardinals at Rams · 4:05 PM ET, Fox
Sims: Rams 83.2% · median score 33-20
Bet: Under 51.5 at 48.7¢ (+105) on Polymarket. Sims: 49.1%.
This is the one game where the Sims and the prices agree almost everywhere. Arizona has allowed 31, 36, 36 and 45 points in its last four games, and a 51.5 total already accounts for that. The Sims put the under at a coin flip, and +105 pays a little better than even, so this is a small ticket.
Bills at Raiders · 4:25 PM ET, CBS
Sims: Bills 66.3% · median score 30-23
Bet: Raiders by 3+ at 25.3¢ (+295) on Kalshi. Sims: 29.9%.
Buffalo is 4-1, but four of those five games were decided by eight points or fewer, including last Monday's 37-34 overtime win at Los Angeles. Las Vegas has Brock Bowers and a quarterback in Kirk Cousins with 12 touchdowns. 90% of Raiders wins in the Sims come by 3 or more, so I'd take the margin over the moneyline.
Chargers at Chiefs · 4:25 PM ET, CBS
Sims: Chiefs 75.5% · median score 26-17
Bet: Chargers to win at +360 on FanDuel. Sims: 23.6%.
The Chargers are 0-5, but they've lost by 12, 12, 8, 7 and 6. They haven't been blown out. Quentin Johnston and Derwin James Jr. are out and Tre' Harris is doubtful, so this is a small bet. The Sims still have Los Angeles winning 23.6% of the time, and FanDuel's +360 is the longest price of the four venues.
Sunday and Monday Night
Cowboys at Packers · Sun 8:20 PM ET, NBC
Sims: Packers 50.0% · median score 27-27
Bet: Matthew Golden 6+ catches at +161 on DraftKings. Sims: 44.5%.
The Packers win 50.0% of the Sims and the Cowboys 49.0%, so the side is priced right and my bet here is Golden. He has caught six passes in two of his five games and has seen 12 targets twice. The Sims expect a 27-27 shootout, and in that game Jordan Love throws enough for Golden to get there. FanDuel has the same bet at +140. My Cowboys vs. Packers page has the CeeDee Lamb bet.
Commanders at 49ers · Mon 8:15 PM ET, ESPN/ABC
Sims: 49ers 74.2% · median score 30-21
Bet: 49ers by 15+ at 30.4¢ (+229) on Kalshi. Sims: 32.6%.
San Francisco is 5-0 and has two wins by 20 or more. Washington is without Stefon Diggs, and Jayden Daniels has played only three games. Nick Bosa is out for the 49ers, so I'd keep this one small.
Ask The Sims Your Own Week 6 Question
These 14 bets are what I'd play. Your question is probably different, and that's the point of Ask The Sims. It's free. Pick a game and ask about any player or team: "Bo Nix 250+ passing yards," "Garrett Wilson 80+ receiving yards if the Jets win," "Josh Allen 2+ passing TDs and the Bills win." The Sims answer from 10,000 runs of that game and show the price beside it on Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings or FanDuel.
Last week a reader asked on Saturday morning how often Jameis Winston would throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns. The Sims said 1.7%. Winston threw for 326 and three. That and six other winners are in Ask The Sims Wins: Winston's 1.7% Ticket Hit.
The Sims re-run when injury news breaks, so the answers will move between now and kickoff. Start with the Ravens at Browns, or open the Seahawks at Broncos for Thursday night.
Ask The Sims anything about any Week 6 game, free: 10,000 runs of every game, with the Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings or FanDuel price next to the answer.
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