NFL Week 6 Parlay Picks: Raiders by 6+ Leads Four Sims Parlays

My Week 6 Sunday parlay is Raiders by 6+ and over 38.5 points on Kalshi. It hits in 19.4% of our Sims (+415), and it should cost about 11.8¢ (+750).

I built this page the same way you can: I typed parlays into Ask The Sims and kept the ones where the Sims beat the price. There's one for each simulator, plus a bonus Falcons ticket.

Sims: 10,000 runs of each game, Tuesday, Oct. 13, 4-5 a.m. CT. Prices read Tuesday 7:05-7:15 a.m. CT: DraftKings and FanDuel are the books' own parlay prices; Kalshi and Polymarket are the expected quote for the whole parlay.

Every one of these started as a question. Type yours into the box and the Sims answer it, free:

Raiders by 6+, Over 38.5 (Kalshi)

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The Bills are 6-point favorites in Las Vegas (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS), and the Raiders are coming off a 45-17 loss in New England. I still like Las Vegas here.

The Raiders win in about a third of the Sims, close to what the market says. My edge is in how they win. The Sims have them winning by 6 or more in 22.0% of games, and that line was 15.9¢ on Kalshi this morning.

When it happens, it isn't a 17-10 game. The typical Raiders 6+ win in the Sims ends 33-20. Buffalo has given up 29 and 34 points the last two weeks, and Kirk Cousins already has 12 TD passes.

That's why I add the over. A Raiders team that wins by a touchdown is scoring, and 88% of those games clear 38.5. The over rides along and the ticket pays more.

I'd take any quote under 16¢. It's still a one-in-five ticket, so size it like one.

Raiders by 8+, Over 38.5 (Polymarket)

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Same game, bigger swing. On Polymarket I push the Raiders to 8+ and keep the over. The typical Raiders 8+ win in the Sims ends 34-19, so it's the same script with one more score.

It hits in 14.3% of the Sims (+597) at an expected 10.7¢. I'd take anything under 12¢. If you already have the Kalshi ticket, this is the add-on for a Raiders rout, not a second full bet.

Kraft Over, Ferguson Under (DraftKings)

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This is the Sunday night game (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), and I'm betting on two tight ends going in opposite directions.

Green Bay is thin: Josh Jacobs is out, Jayden Reed is on IR and Luke Musgrave is out. Tucker Kraft has caught at least four passes in each of the last three games. Jordan Love has thrown exactly two touchdowns in all five games, and when Kraft is busy in the Sims, Love's two TDs come along a little more often.

On the other side, Jake Ferguson has caught four or fewer passes in every game, and three or fewer in four of five. Dallas throws to its receivers: CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens have 66 catches between them.

All three hit in 27.7% of the Sims (+261), and DraftKings had the parlay at +315 this morning. Take +290 or longer. Lamb is questionable with a quad bruise. If he sits, more of those throws could go to Ferguson, so I'd bet less on this one.

Chiefs Win, Mahomes Runs One In (FanDuel)

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The Chiefs are 4-0 and coming off their bye. The Chargers are 0-5, and Derwin James is out. Kansas City is the side at Arrowhead (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS).

The bet is Patrick Mahomes scoring a touchdown himself, paired with the Chiefs winning. He's run one in this season, in Week 1 against Denver. The two legs go together: a Chiefs win means more scoring drives, and more chances for Mahomes to keep one himself. He scores in 29.1% of the Chiefs' wins in the Sims and 15.0% of their losses.

Together it's 22.0% (+355), and FanDuel had it at +425 this morning. Take +400 or longer.

Bonus: Falcons by 10+ (Kalshi)

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Chicago is a 3-point favorite in Atlanta (1 p.m. ET, Fox), but Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury, and the Bears just lost 31-7 in Green Bay.

The Sims have the Falcons winning by 10 or more in 16.8% of games, and that line was 14.8¢ on Kalshi this morning. Those wins look like 33-16, and 81% of them clear 38.5, so the over rides along here too.

Together it's 13.7% (+633) at an expected 9.5¢. I'd take anything under 11¢, and keep it small. Michael Penix Jr. is questionable with a rib injury. If he's out at 11:30 a.m. ET, I'd cut this one in half.

Ask The Sims Your Own Parlay

Every ticket above started as one question. Yours works the same way, for any Week 6 game, free. A few I'd ask next:

• Best 2-leg parlay if the Bears win
• Ashton Jeanty 80+ rushing yards if the Raiders win
• Josh Allen 2+ passing TDs and Bills win by 7+

Pick a simulator: Kalshi · Polymarket · DraftKings · FanDuel