Fantasy QB1 In 2026: All 8 AI Models Agree On Allen, Then Fight Over Everything Else
By Jake Hari
July 28, 2026
The Quick Answer
For the first time in this series, every one of the eight models picked the same favorite: Josh Allen, whom the market prices at 24¢. But unanimity is not confidence. The panel caps Allen near 16%, because preseason QB favorites convert far less often than their prices imply, and its real headline sits lower on the board: Drake Maye, second on the entire blend at 11% and trading at just 5¢. The full 25-man field, the revision round that moved four names, and the dark horses the panel refuses to zero are all below.
The Market
Kalshi's Top Fantasy QB market (event KXRANKLISTFFQB-27) settles on one rule: the quarterback who finishes number one on ESPN Fantasy Football PPR scoring for the 2026-27 regular season resolves Yes. Regular season only, and only the 25 listed candidates can settle Yes. The listed close is February 1, 2027, with settlement once ESPN's final ranks are in. Like the rest of this suite it trades thin, which makes it a forecasting exercise, and that is exactly what the panel is for.
Two timestamps: panel verdicts were generated the morning of July 28, 2026, price-blind; prices were fetched from exchange candlesticks late July 27.
What The Fetched Record Says
The card carried two fetched blocks. The 2025 finishes: Josh Allen won the crown at 364.6 PPR points in 16 games, ahead of Drake Maye (352.0) and Matthew Stafford (350.4). And the current rosters, which matter because the biggest mover on this board changed teams: Kyler Murray is now a Minnesota Viking. That single line reshaped the revision round.
How The Panel Read It
All eight seats put Allen first, and their reasoning converged on the same structural point.
"His edge is structural rather than variance-driven: designed goal-line rushing plus a double-digit rushing-TD floor is the single most reliable source of PPR QB scoring, and it survives receiver turnover and negative game scripts." (Claude Opus)
But every seat also capped him, and several cited the same base rate.
"Even the strongest preseason favorite historically converts to an actual QB1 finish only about 15-20% of the time, which caps him." (Claude Fable)
The blend lands at 16% Allen against his 24¢ price, which means the panel thinks the market has the right favorite at roughly the right number. The disagreement is everywhere else.
The Revision Round
After locking round-1 verdicts, each model read the other seven's anonymized reasoning and could revise with a stated reason. Cross-model disagreement fell from 1.13 to 0.68 points, and several names moved on arguments worth quoting:
"I completely omitted Drake Maye from my round-1 top distribution despite his QB2 finish (352.0 PPR pts); multiple peers correctly flagged this as a major oversight given his ascending dual-threat profile entering year 3. He now enters my top tier at 10%." (GLM 5.2) [Editor's note: GLM's stored round-1 number for Maye was 5%; "omitted" refers to its top tier.]
"Kyler Murray's move to Minnesota, surfaced by peers from the card's roster block, is a dual-threat QB landing in an elite target ecosystem, which I had underweighted." (Claude Opus)
"Moved probability toward Jayden Daniels because all seven peers independently surfaced his injury-suppressed-not-talent-suppressed 2025 as underweighted." (Claude Sonnet)
"The panel's rushing-premium argument exposed a real inconsistency between my round-1 words and my round-1 numbers, so I reallocated about 5 points to Lamar, Daniels, and Hurts." (Kimi K3)
Maye's blend rose from 8.5% to 11% in the revision, the largest gain on the board and the panel's clearest post-deliberation conviction.
Where The Machines Split From The Money
Drake Maye: market 5¢, AI blend 11%. The board's headline gap. The reigning QB2 at age 23 is priced with the mid-tier; the panel prices him as the clear second favorite.
Jalen Hurts: market 7¢, AI blend 7%. Panel and market agree here almost to the cent; what the panel adds is the reasoning — the same rushing-TD floor argument that carries Allen, available at a third of his price.
Lamar Jackson: market 18¢, AI blend 9%. The one place the panel is meaningfully under the market among the top prices. Two QB1 crowns already banked, but the panel splits on whether the age curve and Baltimore's run-game evolution keep the ceiling.
Patrick Mahomes: market 4¢, AI blend 6%. The panel is above the market on the best passer of the era even while acknowledging the fantasy format discounts pure passing.
Dark Horses The Panel Won't Dismiss
The whole field got real numbers, not just the headliners:
- Kyler Murray (6¢, blend 5%): the revision round's discovery. A dual-threat quarterback throwing to Justin Jefferson moved three separate seats after the roster card confirmed the Minnesota move.
- Matthew Stafford (2¢, blend 3%): the panel's favorite pure-passer longshot; a top-3 passing season with zero rushing value is a narrow but real path.
- Caleb Williams (5¢, blend 4%): year-three leap candidate in a scheme built for him; several seats kept him ahead of bigger names.
- The field (6%): if any unlisted quarterback leads ESPN PPR scoring, every market on this board settles No. The panel holds real weight there on purpose.
The Board
| Outcome | 2025 PPR Finish | Kalshi | AI Blend (after revision) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen (BUF) | QB1 · 364.6 | 24¢ | 16% |
| Drake Maye (NE) | QB2 · 352.0 | 5¢ | 11% |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | QB20 · 214.9 | 18¢ | 9% |
| Jayden Daniels (WSH) | outside top 25 | 16¢ | 9% |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | QB8 · 301.1 | 7¢ | 7% |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | QB11 · 285.7 | 4¢ | 6% |
| Any Unlisted QB (the field) | — | — | 6% |
| Kyler Murray (MIN) | outside top 25 | 6¢ | 5% |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | outside top 25 | 5¢ | 5% |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | QB5 · 318.2 | 5¢ | 4% |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | QB4 · 338.2 | 1¢ | 3% |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | QB3 · 350.4 | 2¢ | 3% |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | QB6 · 313.8 | 2¢ | 2% |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | QB7 · 304.8 | 2¢ | 2% |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | QB10 · 286.9 | 7¢ | 1.9% |
| Jared Goff (DET) | QB9 · 297.1 | 7¢ | 1.8% |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | QB23 · 177.4 | 4¢ | 1.8% |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | QB12 · 271.9 | 1¢ | 1.3% |
| Jordan Love (GB) | QB15 · 235.1 | 4¢ | 1.2% |
| Cam Ward (TEN) | QB22 · 186.7 | 1¢ | 0.8% |
| Jaxson Dart (NYG) | QB13 · 241.6 | 3¢ | 0.8% |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | QB14 · 235.4 | 9¢ | 0.7% |
| Geno Smith (NYJ) | QB24 · 173.9 | 1¢ | 0.4% |
| Malik Willis (MIA) | outside top 25 | 2¢ | 0.4% |
| Fernando Mendoza (LV) | outside top 25 | 1¢ | 0.3% |
| Tyler Shough (NO) | outside top 25 | 1¢ | 0.2% |
Every Seat's Round-1 Number
The per-model split before the revision round. On a phone this table scrolls sideways; the board above carries the headline numbers, which average all eight seats' revised round-2 estimates.
| Outcome | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 14% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 20% | 21% | 16% |
| Drake Maye | 4% | 10% | 8% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 11% | 14% |
| Lamar Jackson | 10% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 9% |
| Jayden Daniels | 12% | 9% | 10% | 4% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 7% |
| Jalen Hurts | 8% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 6% |
| Patrick Mahomes | 6% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 4% |
| Any Unlisted QB (the field) | 9% | 5% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 0.5% | 5% | 8% |
| Kyler Murray | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 2% | 9% |
| Joe Burrow | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 1.5% |
| Caleb Williams | 4% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 3% |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 4% |
| Matthew Stafford | 0.7% | 2% | 1.8% | 7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 4% | 1.0% |
| Dak Prescott | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Bo Nix | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1.5% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Justin Herbert | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1.5% |
| Jared Goff | 0.8% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.0% | 2% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Brock Purdy | 2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1.0% |
| Baker Mayfield | 1.1% | 2% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Jordan Love | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 3% | 2% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Cam Ward | 1.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% |
| Jaxson Dart | 0.9% | 2% | 1.3% | 2% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2% |
| Sam Darnold | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Geno Smith | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Malik Willis | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Fernando Mendoza | 0.2% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Tyler Shough | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
Every seat on this panel is graded against real market settlements — records to date: GPT 83% on 1,693 graded calls · Claude Fable 85% on 331 graded calls · Claude Opus 86% on 382 graded calls · Claude Sonnet 84% on 363 graded calls · Gemini 85% on 1,718 graded calls · GLM 80% on 1,874 graded calls · Kimi 84% on 1,863 graded calls · DeepSeek 80% on 1,877 graded calls. Recomputed daily; the full scoreboard is public.
Model estimates generated July 28, 2026, price-blind from live fetched data. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money.
The Shape Of The Distribution
A unanimous favorite at only 16% is the read of this position: quarterback scoring is TD-dependent and the crown has changed hands in four of the last six seasons. This board joins the fantasy series next to the RB1 verdict and the WR1 verdict, with the TE board next, and every number above gets graded against ESPN's final 2026 ranks on the public scoreboard.
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