Kalshi NFL Awards Odds: Mahomes Ran Away With One Board

Two weeks of football turned seven open award races into one runaway and six arguments: Patrick Mahomes doubled his Comeback Player price and owns that board outright, Josh Allen more than doubled his MVP price, Myles Garrett went from Defensive Player favorite to the bottom of the board on a knee scope, and the Coach of the Year race replaced both of its August co-favorites. Every contract settles on the Associated Press award announced at NFL Honors.

New to event contracts? Start with how to bet NFL on Kalshi; a Yes contract pays $1 if the player wins the award, so the price in cents reads as the chance.

The Seven Races At A Glance

August prices are the quote midpoints from the August 3 edition. Today's prices are the asks at 8:45 a.m. CT on September 24, 2026 (the Defensive Rookie board at 8:50). Records and stats from ESPN through Week 2; player teams checked against the ESPN rosters this morning.

MVP: Allen Turned A Four-Way Tie Into A Lead

In August the top of the MVP board was Allen at 10.5 with Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert one half-cent behind. Two games later Allen trades at 26 and nobody else is above 11. The line that did it: 582 passing yards, five passing touchdowns, four rushing touchdowns and no interceptions in wins of 36-31 at Houston and 41-31 over Detroit. Brock Purdy of the 49ers is second at 11 after a 20-of-22, 287-yard afternoon against Miami in a 35-13 win, with San Francisco 2-0 and plus-42 in point differential. Burrow (Bengals, 2-0) trades at 10, Mahomes (Chiefs, 2-0) at 9, Jackson (Ravens, 1-1) at 8. Herbert is the August co-favorite who vanished: the Chargers are 0-2 and his contract asks 2 cents.

The models re-scored this board yesterday, price-blind. They agree Allen leads and would pay 22 cents for him, not 26. The name the panel buys is Mahomes at 9 cents, a quarterback on an unbeaten team with the comeback story voters reward. The full board is on the NFL MVP model verdict; Allen also leads the fantasy QB1 board.

Offensive Player Of The Year: A Receiver Caught The Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs held his August price almost to the cent, 12.5 then and 13 now, on 208 rushing yards and three total touchdowns for a 1-1 Lions team. What changed is who stands beside him. Jaxon Smith-Njigba of the Seahawks went from off the August shortlist to a 13-cent co-favorite with 17 catches, 277 yards and four touchdowns, 155 of the yards and three of the scores in Sunday's 31-7 win over Arizona. Kenneth Walker III, now a Chief, is third at 11 with a league-leading 290 rushing yards in two Kansas City wins. Ja'Marr Chase held near his August price at 8.

The August number two collapsed. Bijan Robinson was 12 cents on August 3 and asks 4 today, because the Falcons are 0-2 and have scored 16 points all season. Puka Nacua went from 7.5 to 3 with the Rams at 1-1. The panel-scored version of this field is on the Offensive Player of the Year board.

Defensive Player Of The Year: Garrett's Knee Handed The Race To Hutchinson

Myles Garrett was the largest favorite on any veteran board in August at 19.5. He played one game for the Rams, recorded no tackles in it, and went on injured reserve on September 17 after a knee scope. Four missed games on the Rams' schedule run from Week 3 through Week 6, so the earliest he can return is Week 7 at Las Vegas on October 25. His contract asks 1 cent. Aidan Hutchinson of the Lions, 9.5 in August, is the new favorite at 18 on three sacks and a forced fumble in two games. Will Anderson Jr. of the Texans is second at 15 despite an 0-2 team and 1.5 sacks. T.J. Watt of the Steelers trades at 10 with 3.5 sacks and an interception returned for a touchdown. Maxx Crosby of the Raiders went from 4.5 to 7 with Las Vegas 2-0.

The panel's one buy on this board is Greg Rousseau at 3 cents; it has Anderson at a quarter of his price. Rousseau has four sacks and three forced fumbles for an unbeaten Bills team. Anderson has 1.5 sacks for a winless one, and the models do not read that as a case.

Offensive Rookie Of The Year: Love Held, Mendoza Did Not

Jeremiyah Love of the Cardinals opened as the 19.5-cent favorite and trades at 20, the steadiest favorite on any board, on modest production: 70 rushing yards on 20 carries and a touchdown in a 1-1 start. Fernando Mendoza of the Raiders was 18.5 in August and asks 9 today, and the reason is in the ESPN game log: Las Vegas is 2-0 and he has not thrown a pass. Jadarian Price of the Seahawks moved from 12.5 to 14 on 104 rushing yards in two wins, and Denzel Boston of the Browns, unlisted on the August page, is third at 10 with seven catches for 154 yards and two touchdowns. Carnell Tate fell from 14.5 to 7 and Jordyn Tyson from 13.5 to 2.

The August panel took Mendoza over Love; the market went the other way, and until Mendoza plays the market is right. That argument, model by model, is on the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds board.

Defensive Rookie Of The Year: One Co-Favorite Kept The Price, One Lost It

David Bailey of the Jets and Rueben Bain Jr. of the Buccaneers were tied at 18.5 in August. Bailey asks 22 today with two sacks and a forced fumble in two games. Bain asks 6 with one tackle. Jacob Rodriguez, a Dolphins linebacker, is the surprise second at 17 on 22 tackles in two Miami losses. Caleb Downs of the Cowboys slipped from 14.5 to 11 despite 17 tackles, a sack and two forced fumbles, and Sonny Styles of the Commanders trades at 9.

Bailey is the only favorite the panel would pay more than the market for; Anthony Hill Jr. of the Titans at 3 cents is its cheapest buy. The sell is Rodriguez at 17: tackle totals on a winless defense pile up because opponents keep running, and they shrink as the season goes on.

Comeback Player: The Board's Only Runaway

Patrick Mahomes was 34 cents in August, already the strongest opinion on any award board. He trades at 68 today. Kansas City is 2-0, he has 566 passing yards and five touchdowns against one interception, including 382 yards in the overtime win over Indianapolis, and the injury he returned from is the late-season ACL tear from a year Kansas City missed the playoffs. Kyler Murray of the Vikings, second in August at 16.5, asks 5 after throwing five passes in Week 1 and none in Week 2. Michael Penix Jr. of the Falcons and Aaron Donald of the Rams share second at 7; Penix has no 2026 game on his log yet, and Donald was active Monday night against the Giants.

The panel is the lone seller on Mahomes, and it likes Burrow at 6 cents. Its argument is that a short absence reads to voters as a restoration rather than a comeback, while Burrow missed nine games last season and has the Bengals unbeaten.

Coach Of The Year: Both August Co-Favorites Are Gone From The Top

In August the book was a 10.5-cent tie between John Harbaugh of the Giants and Jesse Minter of the Ravens, with Kellen Moore at 9. Moore, whose Saints won 24-17 at Baltimore and lost 31-30 in overtime at Detroit, is now the favorite at 17. Klint Kubiak of the 2-0 Raiders is second at 14, Kevin O'Connell of the 2-0 Vikings third at 9, Joe Brady of the 2-0 Bills fourth at 8. Minter asks 7 and Harbaugh 5, each with a 1-1 team. This award tracks surprise, and the two surprises of September are Las Vegas and New Orleans; a coach's price doubling here is the market repricing a whole season, which feeds every other read on this page.

What Reprices These Boards Next

Thursday night is Atlanta at Green Bay, Packers by 4.5, and a third Falcons loss takes Robinson and Penix further down their boards. Sunday puts the Chargers at Buffalo, Bills by 7, with Allen's MVP contract on one side and Herbert's 2-cent contract on the other, and Kansas City at Miami, Chiefs by 10.5, where Mahomes's two boards move together. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Bengals by 3.5, is Burrow and Chase against Watt. Award chatter compounds in November; the prices above carry a September 24 stamp so the move is measurable when it does.

For fantasy managers, the OPOY top three (Gibbs, Smith-Njigba, Walker) is the three workloads the market trusts most; the full map of fantasy-relevant markets is the fantasy football prediction markets hub, and Stokastic Prop Tools runs the week-to-week version against live lines.

Projections and hit rates on this page are estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.

Prices from the live Kalshi exchange at 8:45 a.m. CT on September 24, 2026 (Defensive Rookie board 8:50 a.m.); August prices from the August 3 edition of this page. Stats, records, injuries and rosters from ESPN through Week 2. Panel medians from the September 23 re-score of the MVP, Defensive Player, Defensive Rookie and Comeback Player boards.

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