Kalshi NFL Awards Odds: Every Award Race in One Hub

Kalshi runs seven NFL award markets, and together they are the deepest football books on the exchange: roughly 8.4 million contracts traded across MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, both Rookie of the Year races, Comeback Player of the Year, and Coach of the Year. Every one settles on the AP's award announced at NFL Honors. This page is the one-screen version of all seven races: live prices, how each award actually gets voted, and links to the full boards our eight-model AI panel has already scored. Prices are quote midpoints fetched from the live exchange as of August 3, 2026; this page rebuilds in place as the races move, and the "as of" stamp is the evidence.

The Quick Answer

As of August 3, 2026, Kalshi's NFL award favorites are: Josh Allen for MVP at 10.5 cents over Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Justin Herbert (all 9.5); Jahmyr Gibbs (12.5) narrowly over Bijan Robinson (12) for OPOY; Myles Garrett for DPOY at 19.5, going for a repeat; Jeremiyah Love (19.5) barely ahead of Fernando Mendoza (18.5) for Offensive Rookie of the Year; Rueben Bain Jr. and David Bailey tied at 18.5 for Defensive Rookie of the Year; Patrick Mahomes for Comeback Player at 34 cents, the strongest single opinion on any award board; and a dead-heat Coach of the Year race with John Harbaugh and Jesse Minter at 10.5. Race-by-race prices, the voter history that explains them, and the full model-verdict boards are below.

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The Seven Races At A Glance

All prices are quote midpoints in cents as of August 3, 2026. Each cent is roughly a percentage point of implied probability, before spread and fees, and thin-book award fields typically sum to more than 100 cents, so compare prices to each other rather than to a fair total.

How Award Markets Differ From Sportsbook Futures

Three structural differences matter before you read any price here. First, these are two-sided exchange markets on a CFTC-regulated venue, not house-set futures: you can sell what you own mid-season, which makes an award position tradeable around narrative swings instead of a ticket you hold to February. Second, settlement is the AP's announcement specifically, quoted from the contracts: "If [player] wins the Pro Football AP [award] in the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes." Media-vote awards resolve on voter behavior, not stat leaderboards, and that gap is where most of the value on these boards lives. Third, every field is a set of independent yes/no contracts with no field option: an unlisted winner settles every contract No, a real scenario our panel prices explicitly on the boards it scores.

MVP: The Deepest Book On The Exchange

The MVP field (45 contracts, about 6.84 million traded) opens the season with a four-way argument: Josh Allen 10.5 cents, then Burrow, Jackson, and Herbert bunched at 9.5, Mahomes at 6.5. The fetched winner ledger explains the compression: the last five awards went to five different quarterbacks' seasons — Matthew Stafford (2025, in a close vote: 23 of 50 first-place votes per the AP tally), Josh Allen (2024), Lamar Jackson (2023), Patrick Mahomes (2022), and Aaron Rodgers (2021) — with Jackson, Mahomes, and Rodgers all repeat winners in the 2018-2025 window. Voters reward the best story on a top seed, and in August nobody has a story yet. Allen is also the 26.5-cent favorite on the fantasy QB1 board, the kind of cross-book agreement worth tracking. Our panel has scored this whole field price-blind on the NFL MVP model verdict.

Offensive Player Of The Year: The Running Back Award Again?

OPOY runs 54 contracts deep with Gibbs (12.5) and Robinson (12) on top, and the same two names lead the RB1 fantasy rank list, two separate books telling one story about elite backfield volume. The fetched ledger backs the market's skill-position lean: the last seven winners are Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2025), Saquon Barkley (2024), Christian McCaffrey (2023), Justin Jefferson (2022), Cooper Kupp (2021), Derrick Henry (2020), and Michael Thomas (2019), a run of pure volume seasons with no quarterback winner since Mahomes in 2018. If you believe a wideout breaks the RB tie, note that Ja'Marr Chase (8.5) and Puka Nacua (7.5) sit third and fourth here while topping the receiving-yards leader and WR1 boards.

Defensive Player Of The Year: Garrett's Repeat Bid

Myles Garrett at 19.5 cents is the largest favorite on any veteran award board, chasing a repeat: the fetched table shows he won in 2023 and again in 2025. History says his position is the right profile and his margin is real: of the 22 position-tagged winners since 2000, sixteen came from the front seven (7 defensive ends, 7 linebackers, 2 tackles) against just six defensive backs, and the recent run (Garrett, Surtain, Bosa, Watt, Donald) is pass-rush-heavy with Surtain's 2024 win the exception. Behind Garrett: Will Anderson Jr. 12.5, Aidan Hutchinson 9.5, then a cliff to Maxx Crosby and Nick Bosa at 4.5. Crosby is a strange double: he also carries one of the exchange's 13 open next-team markets, and a DPOY case that depends a little on where he plays.

The Rookie Races: The Only Boards Priced Before Anyone Plays

Offensive Rookie of the Year is the market ranking the 2026 draft class blind: Jeremiyah Love 19.5, Fernando Mendoza 18.5, Carnell Tate 14.5, Jordyn Tyson 13.5, Jadarian Price 12.5. Our eight-model panel priced all 22 rookies the same morning as this hub and disagrees with the market's order outright, flipping Mendoza over Love and putting 7.8% on a 1-cent contract; the full argument, seat by seat, is on the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds board. The award's structure since 2000: 11 quarterbacks, 9 running backs, 6 wide receivers, and zero tight ends.

Defensive Rookie of the Year is the thinnest award book (about 103K traded) and the most honest about its uncertainty: Rueben Bain Jr. and David Bailey are co-favorites at 18.5 with Caleb Downs at 14.5, and nobody else above 12.5.

Comeback Player: The Board's Strongest Opinion

Patrick Mahomes at 34 cents is double the next name (Kyler Murray, 16.5) and the most concentrated favorite on any of the seven boards. The award's fetched history says the market's shape is right even before you argue the name: 15 of the 24 position-tagged winners since 2000 were quarterbacks, including four of the last six (Burrow twice, Flacco, Geno Smith), with Christian McCaffrey's 2025 win the recent exception. Comeback voting is the most narrative-driven of the seven; it needs a fall and a return, which is why its favorite can trade at triple the MVP favorite's price in August.

Coach Of The Year: The Market Admits It's Guessing

Thirty-three coaches, and the top of the book is a 10.5-cent tie between John Harbaugh and Jesse Minter, with Kellen Moore at 9 and nobody else at 7 or better. A flat board is information: Coach of the Year tracks surprise team success, and in August the market cannot know which team will surprise. Treat this one as a live index of expectations; when a coach's price doubles in September, that is the market repricing a team's whole season, which feeds every other read on this page.

The Fantasy Crossover: Award Boards As Leading Indicators

For fantasy managers, three of these races function as free research. The OPOY top four (Gibbs, Robinson, Chase, Nacua) is a market-priced shortlist of the players whose volume the money trusts most, and it currently matches the tops of the fantasy rank lists one for one. The OROY board is a rookie-ADP sanity check with real dollars behind it. And Comeback Player is a usage forecast wearing an award price: a 34-cent Mahomes contract is the market saying his volume returns. The full map of fantasy-relevant families, with the workflow for reading them against your draft board, is the fantasy football prediction markets hub; for the week-to-week version against live lines, Stokastic Prop Tools runs it in-season.

What Reprices These Boards

Award prices move on a knowable calendar: quarterback depth-chart decisions in August (the OROY board's biggest single sensitivity), injuries at any point (which move MVP and Comeback in opposite directions at once), the first month of team records (Coach of the Year's whole story), and the November narrative window when award chatter starts compounding. This hub rebuilds in place through the season rather than minting a new page per news cycle, so the prices above always carry their fetch date.

How To Read These Prices

• Eligibility. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, not a sportsbook. 18+, and availability varies by state as of August 2026.
• Liquidity. Depth varies a hundred-fold across these seven boards, from MVP's 6.84 million contracts to DROY's 103 thousand. Weight your trust accordingly.
• Time. Award markets settle at NFL Honors announcements, with listed expirations from March 10 to March 30, 2027; capital is committed for the season.
• Not advice. Where our AI panel's numbers appear on the linked boards, those are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. Every panel number is graded against the real settlement on the public model verdict scoreboard.

The Bottom Line

Seven races, one pattern: the market prices August information honestly, which means concentrated favorites only where the case is structural (Garrett's profile, Mahomes's narrative) and deliberate ties where it is not (the rookie races, Coach of the Year). The voter history above says which shapes to trust: OPOY belongs to volume, DPOY to the front seven, Comeback to quarterbacks, and MVP to whichever top-seed quarterback owns December's story. The panel-scored boards linked in every section carry the model-by-model argument, and every number they produce is graded in public when the AP announces each award.

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Prices fetched from the live Kalshi exchange as of August 3, 2026. Award histories fetched from the AP winner tables the same morning. Model estimates referenced on linked boards are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.