The PGA Tour season rolls on and we head back to Texas for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. TPC Craig Ranch hosts, which is a familiar venue in recent years, and we have an interesting field to break down. One thing we know for sure is that birdies will be out there, so expect some low scores this week. In the DFS streets, we have Scottie Scheffler and then everyone else, which makes for a challenging build. With that in mind, let’s dive into my PGA DFS picks and core plays for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
Course Preview
This par-72 layout measures around 7,400 yards and has no defense outside wind. If we get calm conditions, the entire field is going low with the winner poised to cross -20. The generous fairways mean bombers are going to be able to really go after it off the tee, and the birdie fest should ensue. It’s the type of layout where any skillset can thrive, but driving and putting is the easiest combination to envision thriving here.
Using the PGA Sims Tool, I’ve locked in some of the top plays for this week. Our hole-by-hole simulations project each golfer’s potential and, combined with PGA DFS projections, allow us to run tens of thousands of lineup builds. This helps us zero in on the best plays — the ones showing up most often in the highest-ROI lineups. The Sims Tool is a big part of my weekly DFS process, and I highly recommend it if you’re looking to improve your PGA DFS game.
PGA DFS Picks: CJ Cup Byron Nelson DFS Picks & Core Plays
PGA DFS Picks: CJ Cup Byron Nelson DFS Picks & Core Plays: Scottie Scheffler – $13,300
Call me crazy, but I would recommend considering playing a guy who is +280 to win the entire tournament. Yes, Scottie Scheffler grades out fantastically, because he is fantastic, and against this field he should be the overwhelming favorite. I’m not going to bore you with stats, and although the lack of wins is creeping up, he continues to pepper the first page of the leaderboard. Even at a nosebleed price point of $13,300, Scheffler showed up a ton in my initial sim runs. There really isn’t much to knock outside of he will be a massive opportunity cost for the rest of your lineup. If you are playing multiple lineups, Scheffler absolutely has to be in the pool, and then you can start to drill down into exactly how much exposure you want.
To give you some context, clicking in Scheffler brings down the rest of the average salary to $7,340 per player, so immediately we start to be crunched for money. However, with a field full of cheap opens and not a ton of other star power, there are plenty of ways to still build effectively around the man to beat this week.
PGA DFS Picks: CJ Cup Byron Nelson DFS Picks & Core Plays: Rasmus Hojgaard – $8,900
If you go to a more balanced build, you will be able to really attack the $8,000 and $9,000 range, which includes Rasmus Hojgaard. He is coming off a quality showing with his brother at the Zurich Classic, and 2025 has seen him start to dial in his form. He finished 32nd at The Masters and has shown the ability to get hot with his putter, which is mandatory at this event. The drop off from Scheffler to everyone else in this field is immense, so it’s wide open once you crash into this price range in terms of where ownership may end up.
The other nice thing about Hojgaard this week is he fits a lot of different build types. If you do go balanced and omit the top, then you have plenty of room to make him your second or even third golfer in builds. If you do choose to pay up with Scheffler it’s still not impossible to have Hojgaard as that second golfer, but be prepared to find some salary savers around them. Overall, it’s a matter of time before Hojgaard breaks through, and like this spot given where his game is.
PGA DFS Picks: CJ Cup Byron Nelson DFS Picks & Core Plays: Alejandro Tosti – $7,300
If you are playing Scheffler, or regardless of build type, you are going to have to find some GPP fliers at the bottom of the price range. Alejandro Tosti might not be in the basement of pricing, but he still provides some relief. Tosti is a wild man, which means a gigantic range of outcomes every time he tees it up. We saw him finish runner-up at the Corales Puntacana Championship thanks to a pair of eagles and 24 birdies, which shows his scoring upside. While he is known to make some mistakes, we still want this type of player in the pool as he is live to outscore his placement points.
The other great aspect of Tosti is, depending on the ownership, you don’t need a serious allocation to get leverage. One of the key benefits of the PGA DFS ownership projections in the data hub is allowing you to have an indication of the fields interest in a player, which helps to determine how much exposure you might need to a given golfer. Tosti has been playing some quality golf, so he definitely will get some interest, but he still is in a crowded range full of potential options. He is going to be in my pool, and as we get closer to lock, I can refine how much I need to get some leverage against the field.
