The EPL DFS main slate sees four games with two slight favorites. Aston Villa is the bigger favorite of the two at home taking on a Bournemouth side coming off a huge win against Liverpool. The money line is giving Bournemouth more credit after impressive outings, but Aston Villa will come out firing and come away with three points. Â Tottenham go on the road against a Southampton trying to face off relegation. Tottenham have UCL position at stake and they will see this one out. Let’s take a look at the EPL DFS picks and find where it makes sense to spend up.
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EPL DFS Picks & Predictions Today | March 18
Forwards/Midfield
Ollie Watkins (DraftKings: $8,300)
Leon Bailey (DraftKings: $6,500)
Bournemouth go on the road to take on Aston Villa. Bournemouth sits second worst in the EPL in expected goals allowed at two per match and conceded an EPL worst 2.69 actual goals per match. Aston Villa sit mid tier in the EPL at home with a 1.76 expected goals per match. They have scored in fifteen straight outings with eight of those matches posting two plus goals.
Bournemouth are coming off an impressive clean sheet victory over Liverpool and this is a typical let down spot after riding high all week. The goal hunting option for Aston Villa is Ollie Watkins. He leads the team in scoring and contributes on 43% of their overall scoring. Should the home side find the back of the net in this favorable match up, Watkins is the man to get it done. He sees an average 2.32 shots per match with a career high 52% on target accuracy and handles the penalty sets.
Alongside Watkins is Emiliano Buendia to offer salary relief but the floor is low with an average of less than an attempt per match in recent form and no set shares to build a floor. Douglas Luiz is one of the floor spots in the midfield with set shares and a team lead in both created scoring chances at 3.01 and won tackles and interceptions at 3.62 per match. Luiz does enough in midfield and a sub $6,000 salary makes him a solid salary relief option in cash games. Leon Bailey comes in as a top value play with set shares and 4.59 crosses per match. Bailey mirrors Watkins with shots per match average and ties Buendia for second on the team sheet with four goals on the year.
The Bournemouth side offers value given the underdog tag. They have found goals against Liverpool, Manchester City and Arsenal in recent matches. Aston Villa is nowhere near the defensive strongholds those three clubs are. Dango Ouattara is in line to handle the set shares with Troare and Tavernier still out of action.
Ouattara offers little upside with less than an attempt per match, albeit that was against the defenses mentioned above. His mix of crossing volume with drawn fouls and defensive metrics of 2.19 won tackles and interceptions make him a GPP play. The salary is not cheap but his lack of ownership is GPP consideration. Philip Billings offers attempts at the net and leads the road side in won tackles and interceptions. The direct attempts at target offer upside for Billings. A one off of either Ouattara or Billings is enough leverage in GPP with a mix of Aston Villa and Tottenham stacks.
Harry Kane (DraftKings: $10,300)
Heung-Min Son (DraftKings: $9,400)
Tottenham are slight favorites on the road and their two stars in attack are carrying -200+ money line price tags. Harry Kane is deserving of the salary with all goals going through the English international and Brace upside being in his wheel house. Kane sees 3.43 shots per match and and 3.61 scoring chances created per match.
Hueng-Min Son leads the club in created chances per match at 4.02. Each average over 1.22 drawn fouls per match. Son sees an average 4.56 crosses per match which will see a massive uptick with Ivan Perisic out of the starting lineup. Should Perisic see the starting eleven, Son will fall drastically in value and the salary becomes too high. Perisic will than be a top value play. Kane remains the same and is a play in all formats against a Southampton side that has allowed the most actual goals in the EPL at home and rank mid tier in expected goals allowed.
Tottenham do not sport a confident defense and sit mid tier in expected goals allowed on the road at 1.2 per match and 1.61 actual goals per match. The home side rely on James Ward-Prowse for everything they do. the floor is always their for Ward-Prowse with north of seven crosses per match and upside of five won tackles and interceptions per match. The concern is the $8,500 salary. It will cost a set man like Son or Jack Harrison who offers over $1,000 salary relief in a better match up. Ward-Prowse is a GPP option and going underweight on the field makes sense.
Other Options: Bryan Mbeumo (DraftKings: $8,900); Jack Harrison (DraftKings: $7,000); James Maddison (DraftKings: $9,600), Jack Harrison (DraftKings: $7,200)
Defender
Pedro Porro (DraftKings: $5,600)
Their is a small sample of Pedro Porro with Tottenham. The crossing volume in open play are there and his created chances offer goal contribution upside. Porro averages over 1.50 attempts at the net per match dating back to his solid two years at Sporting CP. His open play crossing volume carried his floor at just shy of nine crosses per match. His created chance average at Tottenham is starting to work up to the 4.25 per match at Sporting and this spot is a buy cheap on the wingback despite being the highest priced defender on the slate.
Other Options: Ricardo Pereira (DraftKings: $3,900); Matty Cash (DraftKings: $5,000)
Goalkeeper
Fraser Forster (DraftKings: $5,400)
Illan Meslier (DraftKings: $4,500)
