EPL DFS Picks: Tottenham and Harry Kane Ready to Roll

The EPL DFS main slate has five match ups with four being plus money on the money line odds. The lone massive favorites are Tottenham as they welcome a Bournemouth side that continues to defy the odds. Ownership will be on the Tottenham side and the salary does not seem high enough for forward Harry Kane. Brighton are in an interesting away spot to upset Chelsea and Brentford are coming in under valued at +200 away on the money line odds. Let’s take a look at our best EPL DFS picks and find where it makes sense to spend up.

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EPL DFS Picks & Predictions

EPL DFS Picks For Forwards/Midfield

Harry Kane (DraftKings: $10,300)

Ivan Perisic (DraftKings: $7,400)

Tottenham need to find wins and nothing else will do for the Spurs. They continue to chase Manchester United for the final UCL spot for the upcoming season and Aston Villa are red hot on their tail to snatch Europa League qualification away. Bournemouth are on the road where they surrender the second most expected goals per match in the EPL at 2.01. The actual goals allowed on the road are dead last in the EPL at 2.53 per match. They have two recent away wins of 1-0 to Leicester City and Wolverhampton. Five of their last seven away outings have seen defeat with four coming by way of two plus goal margins. Tottenham have won five straight home matches in the EPL and four of them came on the back of two plus goal performances. Harry Kane leads the scoring for the Spurs and will continue to do so.

Kane comes in with the highest salary on DraftKings. His odds for an anytime goal stand at -138 which towers over any other player on the slate. Ivan Toney comes in as one of the closest at +200 for an anytime goal. Kane averages 3.39 shots per match with an on target accuracy clip of 40.5%. He has contributed on 47% of the Spurs overall scoring with a massive lean via the goals. His 3.52 scoring chances created and 1.44 drawn fouls per match offer a slight floor but that will not do at the current salary. Kane needs to find the back of the net or he is a bust at the given salary. He is a core play to lead the Spurs in a must win game and in GPP’s his ownership will come over 50% making a few fade lineups carry heavy leverage. Fading Kane is not fading Tottenham. The pieces around Heung-Min Son and Ivan Perisic offer a floor and Son historically has a knack for finding the back of the net.

Perisic is coming in still too cheap despite an elevated salary over $7,000. Tottenham has the plus match up at home and sees an implied odds to record over two goals. They control the possession and the open play crossing volume along with set shares allows Perisic to pay off the asking price regardless to contributions on a score. Perisic sees 8.15 crosses per match and 2.92 scoring chances created. His 1.18 shots per match are concerning though he leads the club with six assists on the year. Son trails only Kane in the scoring department and sits right behind Perisic with 4.18 crosses per match. His upside is in the scoring with 2.58 shots per match at an on target rate of 49.7%.

Alexis Mac Allister (DraftKings: $7,300)

Kaoru Mitoma (DraftKings: $6,900)

Brighton are in line with Chelsea on the money line odds at +162 a piece. Brighton have the fourth best goal differential in the EPL on the road and the third highest expected goals for on the road in the EPL at 1.69. Chelsea sit mid tier at home in defense with an expected goals allowed of 1.10. The offense could sneak some goals past Brighton’s defense who have kept just one road clean sheet in their last five outings. Both sides have value in the goal hunting department. Brighton has floor plays in Solly March and Pascal Gross.

The asking prices of both set share takers for the Brighton side require a goal contribution in a match with split possession and a dangerous Chelsea side. The goal hunting options come in the form of Alexis Mac Allister and Kaoru Mitoma. Once a fade due to $8,000 plus salary in Mitoma is now sub $7,000 and a GPP target to find the back of the net. The implied odds suggest he will not do so but Chelsea is not a strong defense under Frank Lampard as proven by his last stint at the helm of the club. Mitoma contributes on 27% of the club’s overall scoring and trails only Mac Allister in goals scored for Brighton. He averages 1.70 shot per match and is very accurate at 51.7%. Mitoma’s 4.04 scoring chances created trail only March atop the team sheet and the implied scoring odds around the same range as that of Ivan Toney and company are worth the stab in GPP’s at a discounted asking price.

Mac Allister handles the penalties and is not shy to shoot. His 1.49 drawn fouls per match and 3.09 scoring chances created with 3.17 won tackles and interceptions build a floor. The upside is in his team leading goals and an average four shots per match in eight straight outings can make that happen.

The Chelsea side at home are not to be ignored. Lampard is a big fan of Mason Mount and at some point he looks to re enter the starting eleven. Should this match up be the one where Mount finds himself back in the mix he is too cheap at $5,400. Mount averaged 5.30 crosses per match with 2.52 shots and 5.26 scoring chances created. He was successful under Lampard’s previous regime along with defender Reece James. 

Matias Jensen (DraftKings: $6,800)

James Ward-Prowse (DraftKings: $7,200)

Brentford will take on Wolverhampton. The Wolves are a stout defensive side with an expected goals allowed ranking mid tier. This is on the road and at home they are far from their formal self. At home Wolverhampton allows an expected goals of 1.41 ranking bottom tier in the EPL. Brentford sports the seventh best road offense in the EPL with an expected goals for of 1.32 per match. Toney carries a massive salary and a few shares in GPP’s is not the worst idea. The person of interest for Brentford is Matias Jensen. Jensen is not a threat to score each time he is on the pitch but his floor is never in question. He does a bit of everything with 21% goal contribution, 3.83 scoring chances created and 5.20 crosses per match. defensively Jensen can hold his own with 3.44 won tackles and interceptions trailing only Christian Norgaard on a per match basis. Bryan Mbueno rounds out the attacking pieces for Brentford with a mix of 1.92 shots per match and 4.92 crosses per match. The amount of matches along with an under dog tag on Brentford would make rostering one or two in a mini stack enough leverage should they look to upset Wolverhampton.

Southampton will have their hands filled with a new look press form Crystal Palace. The Palace side offers exciting plays in Michael Olise, and Jordan Ayew. Southampton are tough to trust with a revolving mid match door of attacking subs and no real threat to find the back of the net. The constant is always James Ward-Prowse who handles all set shares. His average 6.92 crosses, 3.42 scoring chances created and three won tackles and interceptions make him a core play against a Palace side that can be had on the counter in a frantic push up pace under a short sample size.

Other Options: Michael Olise (DraftKings: $9,800); Dwight McNeil (DraftKings: $8,200); Andreas Pereira (DraftKings: $7,700), Daniel Podence (DraftKings: $7,000).

EPL DFS Picks For Defender

Pedro Porro (DraftKings: $6,300)

Tottenham will push everything to secure three points against Bournemouth. Pedro Porro does well in the offensive push with 1.92 shots per match and 3.51 open play crosses and 2.99 scoring chances created. The clean sheet bonus will be icing on the cake and 2.11 drawn fouls per match on the wing role for Porro lead the home side in this one. He is a core stacking piece in all Tottenham stacks and the salary should not deter anybody with punt options like Toti at min price on the wing for Wolverhampton to relief salary for lineup construction.

Other Options: Reece James (DraftKings: $6,200); Toti (DraftKings: $2,900)

EPL DFS Picks For Goalkeeper

Hugo Lloris (DraftKings: $5,600)

David Raya (DraftKings: $4,400)

Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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