Ravens-Chargers DFS Picks: Can Lamar Jackson Carry The Ravens To Victory? (November 26)

Sunday Night Football brings an intriguing matchup as the Baltimore Ravens head to Los Angeles without their best pass-catcher. The Chargers have dropped their last two games and now are on the wrong side of the playoff bubble. Which team will prevail tonight? In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Ravens-Chargers DFS picks for the Sunday Night Football Showdown slate.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Sunday Night slate, so check out these Ravens-Chargers DFS picks.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Ravens-Chargers DFS Picks

Baltimore Ravens: 25.5 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Lamar Jackson as the QB2 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, behind only Jalen Hurts. Sadly, the Ravens will be without tight end and favorite receiver Mark Andrews after the former All-Pro and three-time Pro Bowler suffered an ankle injury, which likely ended his season.

The matchup against the Chargers is a good one for opposing offenses as Los Angeles has the 26th-ranked rushing and passing DVOAs. The Bolts are ceding a league-worst 291.6 net passing yards per game, and if that is not bad enough, the team allowed Jordan Love to rack up a career-high 322 yards last weekend.

Baltimore is tied with Miami atop the AFC with twin 8-3 records. The Ravens have a bye next week, so they just need to hold it together for one more game before getting time to regroup. Jackson should be able to tally at least 250 passing yards, and he is in play for 50 rushing yards, which has been right around his average output this season. That the former NFL MVP has been able to do this while not exceeding 27 pass attempts over the last five games is actually impressive. There could be more volume tonight, as the Chargers should be able to put points on the board, which should keep Jackson and the Ravens looking to take advantage of the weak passing defense whenever possible, particularly in the mid-range.

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Running Back

It was disappointing for J.K. Dobbins to go down in the first game of the season, as it seemed like he had consolidated the key backfield opportunities. The Ravens immediately reverted to a backfield by committee, with Gus Edwards doing the heavy lifting on the ground and Justice Hill the nominal pass-catching option. Veterans Melvin Gordon III and Kenyan Drake popped up for Weeks 3 and 4 when Hill was dinged up, but they are no longer in the picture.

Undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell has worked his way into the scrum over the last three weeks, and he has been providing some glimpses of being a playmaker. Mitchell had back-to-back seasons of 1,385 combined yards for East Carolina, with 25 total touchdowns. Over the last three games, Keaton has 20 carries for 205 yards and a pair of touchdowns, along with five targets for four receptions and 45 yards. It looks like he has supplanted Hill, and the DFS salary algorithms have adjusted accordingly.

In summary, Edwards should be in line for 12 to 15 carries and a target, plus he has been impressive with nine rushing touchdowns in the last five games. Hill is the odd man out, though he will still be on the field for around a quarter of the snaps, and any rookie gaffs by Mitchell could open the door to more opportunities.

Wide Receivers

Rookie Zay Flowers has been working through a hip issue and veteran Odell Beckham Jr. has a shoulder injury, but both were full participants in practice on Friday and expected to be suited up. Rashod Bateman has seen his snap share increase to 74% or better each of the last two games, but he has just six targets.

Flowers, of course, is the primary option, and the rookie leads the team with 72 targets, followed by 42 for Beckham. Nelson Agholor is on the field for around one-third of the snaps, but he has just six targets over the last five games and his magical 2020 season with Las Vegas is a mere memory at this point.

Beckham has a touchdown or 100-plus yards in each of the last two games, but he has been saddled with a significant premium over Bateman on both FanDuel ($3,500) and DraftKings ($2,200). Flowers still presents as a value, getting a minor $400 boost over last week on DraftKings and a $500 increase on FanDuel.

Return man Devin Duvernay is at the $200 minimum on DraftKings, though he has been all but phased out on offense. Even an in-game injury to Beckham or Flowers is not likely to get him in the huddle at this point.

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Tight Ends

Isaiah Likely is back as the primary tight end, and he had a few moments of fantasy relevance in this role last year. He is a longshot to see the same volume as Andrews, but a handful of targets is a respectable baseline projection. The DFS sites did get ahead of his salary, so he is far from a lock-and-load play. Charlie Kolar is the backup and has two targets on the season, with one in the opener when Andrews was out and one last week.

Though Kolar has a questionable tag, it is due to an illness and the expectation is that he will play tonight. He is just $600 on DraftKings, which is intriguing, even if he is on the field for two dozen snaps and getting only a target or two. He was a fourth-round selection after spending four years at Iowa State, where he had at least 44 receptions, 591 yards and six touchdowns in each of his three seasons as a full-time starter.

Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles is allowing just 2.2 sacks per game, with is in the bottom third of the league. Baltimore tops the category on the defensive side with 44 quarterback takedowns, so it has a solid fantasy baseline. The Chargers have suffered only eight turnovers, which is the lowest figure in the league, while the Ravens are in the middle of the pack with 1.4 takeaways per tilt.

Los Angeles Chargers: 22.5 Points

Quarterback

Justin Herbert could be in for a long night, as the Ravens have the second-best passing DVOA and are allowing the third-fewest yards at just 169.7 per game. The fourth-year field general is producing similar numbers across the board to his career averages, and the woes of the Chargers should not be pinned on him.

Joe Burrow and Josh Dobbs are the only quarterbacks with multiple passing touchdowns against the Ravens, and the team has held the opposition to no aerial scores five times. In full transparency, two of those games were against rookies making their NFL debuts, including C.J. Stroud in the opener and Dorian Thompson-Robinson in Week 4.

This is going to be a tricky matchup for Herbert and company, particularly with the lack of pass-catching depth. He is still in play as a multiplier-slot option, but more than a dozen fantasy points could be a stretch tonight. Herbert does have four multi-touchdown games in his last six appearances but only two games of 298-plus passing yards.

Running Back

Austin Ekeler should be in the mix for a dozen carries and half a dozen targets, but the Baltimore defense ranks seventh against the rush, when viewed via the DVOA lens. They have allowed just three rushing and two receiving touchdowns to opposing running backs, but eight opponents have been able to cobble together games of at least 75 combined yards. If there is not much room on the ground, Ekeler could see eight or more targets, which is a bonus for his fantasy supporters.

Josh Kelley is the only other running back to see the field over the last three weeks. He should get a handful of carries, but it has been two weeks since his last target and he has just six on the season, even with Ekeler sidelined for four games in the first half of the year.

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Wide Receiver

Keenan Allen is basically the last man standing, with Mike Williams and now Joshua Palmer out with injuries. He will continue to see volume, but the entire defense is keying on him since rookie Quentin Johnston has not been able to provide any relief. Over the last three games without Palmer, Johnston has 13 targets, eight receptions, 69 yards and a score. That is about one game worth of production for Allen, so you can see the challenges ahead for the Chargers.

Veteran Alex Erickson was conjured up from the practice squad last week for a 78% snap share, though he saw only one target. Jalen Guyton was out with a groin injury, and he was limited in practice this week. If he is out, Erickson is likely to get on the field again. Derius Davis will be around for a target or two, with Simi Fehoko lurking, though his last target was that 9-yard touchdown against Chicago on Sunday Night Football … because #SingleSlateVariance.

Tight End

Gerald Everett (chest) missed the last game, but he did get in a full practice on Friday, so there is a chance he will suit up tonight. Donald Parham has been working through a sore hip, though he was able to practice in full all week. Stone Smartt turned his season-high three targets into a 51-yard touchdown catch, though if Everett is available, the former college quarterback/wide receiver is likely to be a non-factor. With the limited pass-catchers and a recent touchdown, we don’t need to completely remove Smartt from our player pool. However, he is better off for those making a few dozen lineups.

Veteran Nick Vannett has played each of the last three games, though he has not logged more than a dozen snaps in any game and is still waiting on his first target.

Defense/Special Teams

The Chargers are averaging 3.4 sacks per game, with Baltimore ceding just over two per tilt. Each team is in the middle of the pack when it comes to turnovers and takeaways, but with Joey Bosa on the injured reserve, Los Angeles has lost the heart and soul of the defense.

Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

The Vikings-Broncos DFS picks for the Sunday Night Football Showdown game in our NFL DFS showdown picks series, which uses the latest...

Ravens-Chargers DFS Picks Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Ravens-Chargers

  1. Lamar Jackson: The real question is how many lineups should we make without Jackson.
  2. Austin Ekeler: Viable multiplier-option in all formats as he is essentially game-flow proof.
  3. Keenan Allen: Better on DraftKings in full-PPR, but still warrants MVP consideration on FanDuel.
  4. Zay Flowers: Did not get much of a salary bump with Andrews out.
  5. Justin Herbert: Tough matchup and running out of professional-caliber pass-catchers.
  6. Gus Edwards: Touchdown streak could continue in this cherry matchup.
  7. Justin Tucker: Arguably the best kicker in NFL history. Five-time All-Pro with three runner-up campaigns in his 12 seasons.
  8. Isaiah Likely: Needs to do a reasonable impersonation of Andrews to justify salary increase.
  9. Keaton Mitchell: Will the touchdown magic continue?
  10. Cameron Dicker: Four of five from 50-plus, that was his only miss on 17 attempts this season.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Ravens-Chargers

  1. Baltimore D/ST: They are the real deal, would crack the top-10 if this was a home game.
  2. Jalen Guyton: If he were at full health, he would be ranked around Likely.
  3. Gerald Everett and Donald Parham: Interchangeable duo, can be played together for those building 75-plus lineups.
  4. Rashod Bateman: Just hasn’t capitalized on what appeared to be a breakthrough last year.
  5. Quentin Johnston: Will this be the week the rookie finally makes some noise?

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Ravens-Chargers

  1. Los Angeles D/ST: Loss of Bosa is a bad omen.
  2. Justice Hill: One misstep by the rookie could vault the veteran back into relevance.
  3. Joshua Kelley: Salary is cheap but appropriate for the enigmatic DFS performer.
  4. Nelson Agholor: Truly could pay off his supporters with one long catch, but he is a lottery ticket for a reason.
  5. Stone Smartt and Derius Davis: Recency bias could keep Smartt in the tight end rotation, Davis is the main kick returner with the occasional offensive cameo.
  6. Patrick Ricard: 300-pound blocker, masquerading as a full-back. Five targets on the season, just one in the last three games.
  7. Alex Erickson, Charlie Kolar, Devin Duvernay and Simi Fehoko: Never say never.
  8. Tylan Wallace, Travis Vokolek, Elijah Dotson, Hunter Kampmoyer and Nick Vannett: Sorry, not tonight.

Stokastic NFL DFS Tools & Tips

Looking for more NFL DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NFL DFS Premium Package for access to our scoring projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NFL DFS simulation tools. If you’re a beginner, you should check out our NFL DFS quick start guide put together by one of the world’s best DFS players, Alex “Awesemo” Baker. Our Premium Package costs just $35 per week or $115 per month — or you can upgrade to our MAX package for access to post-contest sims, more lineups and VIP support for $60 per week or $199 per month.

Eric MacPherson
Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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