UCL DFS Picks: Old Rivals AC Milan and Inter Milan Battle on the Champions League Stage (May 10)

The UCL showdown slate on DraftKings continues with the first leg of the semifinal between AC Milan and Inter Milan. The Serie A rivals know each other well. Inter Milan has taken the previous two encounters with clean sheet victories. Each side of this outing has a massive goal differential, with AC Milan averaging 0.58 more expected goals for than against at home and Inter at a 0.80 differential on the road. Let’s take a look at the best UCL DFS picks and find where it makes sense to spend up.

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UCL DFS Picks & Predictions

UCL DFS Picks For Captain

Federico Dimarco (DraftKings: $13,200)

Andre Onana (DraftKings: $10,500)

AC Milan will look to defend home-pitch advantage and cannot afford a loss. The under on 2.5 total goals in the match has been juiced to nearly 2-1 on the under. Inter Milan has allowed just one goal in its previous four outings across all competitions. AC Milan has scored one or fewer goals in six of its previous eight outings. In cash games for a match that could have no goals, Federico Dimarco is a high-floor play with a much-needed clean-sheet bonus. Goals being scored will not hurt Dimarco, who gets set share splits and averages 9.16 crosses and 4.39 scoring chances created per match. The GPP options come in the form of goal hunters like Lautaro Martinez . His lack of scoring will drown any lineup, and Martinez has little in terms of a floor despite the brace upside. Dimarco is a pivot off the similar ownership that Hakan Calhanoglu will receive from the Inter Milan-favored stacks.

AC Milan offers value for captains in matches that have little to no goals by way of Brahim Diaz, Rafael Leao and Sandro Tonali. The split shares and mix in the open-play crossing volume make any AC Milan captain easier to trust, with Leao a cheap goal contribution upside who leads in scoring chances created.

GPP goalkeeper plays are never safe and offer a floor well into the negative DFS output should the keeper allow a number of goals. Andre Onana has come up big for Inter throughout the UCL and averages more than two saves per match. AC Milan will not go quietly into the night, but it is hard to ignore the clean-sheet output that Inter Milan is producing match in and match out. Onana is a GPP captain play with massive upside should he get the clean-sheet win.

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UCL DFS Picks For Flex

Olivier Giroud (DraftKings: $8,200)

Olivier Giroud contributes on 25% of AC Milan’s scoring. He averages 3.25 shots per match, trailing only Leao for the club lead. His lack of scoring on the year makes it hard to trust him at the captain spot. In AC Milan-favored stacks, Giroud is a flex with goal-hunting upside, and he offers some glimpse of brace upside, with five goals in his last 10 UCL outings. He offers no floor and is a direct contrarian play to the high ownership expected from Onana.

Nicolo Barella (DraftKings: $8,600)

Theo Hernandez (DraftKings: $5,400)

Nicolas Barella’s price has rocketed on the back of two goal-scoring performances. The shot volume is nowhere near a confident level, with under one shot in each of his last nine outings that has found target. Barella does do well in open play with a mix of crossing volume and drawn fouls. He attacks from the center and creates 4.28 scoring chances per match. Barella will have the confidence to chase a third straight game with a goal in the UCL, making him a solid GPP goal-hunting option at a price that will drive down ownership.

AC Milan needs more from Theo Hernandez. Outside of his last UCL match, he has been a staple in the back line. Hernandez can produce without goal involvement and more than three drawn fouls, with a mix of won tackles/interceptions. All this makes him too cheap at less than $6,000. Hernandez averages 1.76 shots per match, and his open-play crossing work solidifies the floor. He is a one-off option in Inter stacks and makes a core AC Milan play to pair with goalkeeper Mike Maignan.

Other Options: Denzel Dumfries (DraftKings: $6,600), Brahim Diaz (DraftKings: $6,000), Alessandro Bastoni (DraftKings: $5,600)

Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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