UCL DFS Picks: Real Madrid and Vinicius Closing Out Chelsea (April 18)

DraftKings UCL DFS picks is back on Tuesday with a two-game slate that wraps up the quarterfinal stage. Chelsea is the home favorite against Real Madrid, who has a 2-0 aggregate lead. Napoli is down 1-0 on aggregate and looks to even the score at home against AC Milan. Let’s evaluate the UCL DFS picks to find value and goal-hunting options to target.

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UCL DFS Picks & Predictions | April 18


Sandro Tonali (DraftKings: $5,300)

Piotr Zielinski (DraftKings: $7,700)

In surprising fashion, Napoli was shut out in Leg 1 — AC Milan has had Napoli’s number, with three wins out of four recent meetings. Napoli has a better road offense than at home but still manages 1.63 expected goals per match at home. AC Milan allows 0.26 more expected goals per match on the road but still holds an impressive defense that had five consecutive UCL clean sheets. The goal hunting is better left for the Chelsea-Madrid match. The attack of Napoli will have no shortage of ownership, mainly focused on Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and a returning Victor Osimhen. Stacking them in GPP’s will offer little leverage, and a one-off of either leading scorer for Napoli makes sense.

The core play for Napoli is Piotr Zielinski. He handles the indirect set shares and takes part in on the penalty-taking carousel. He averages 4.18 crosses per match and ranks third on the team in shots with 2.14 per match. Zielinski offers 4.87 scoring chances created per match and 15.6% goal contribution, which is good for third on Napoli.

Stacking the Napoli attack with Real Madrid or Chelsea will not be an issue on this slate. The presence of Sandro Tonali offers salary relief and a floor with set shares and the ability to mix in won tackles and drawn fouls. He can hit value with his 3.15 scoring chances per match and north of four crosses per match in the UCL. Brahim Diaz is a goal-hunting option that will not bank the bank in an upset role. Diaz averages 1.85 shots and 4.31 scoring chances created per match. The floor is low on Diaz, but the open-play work offers a bit more than a pure goal hunter such as Olivier Giroud. Diaz and Giroud are GPP plays, while Tonali is playable in all formats.

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Karim Benzema (DraftKings: $8,800)

Vinicius Junior (DraftKings: $9,400)

Real Madrid is not in cruise mode against a Chelsea team that has the talent to reverse sweep anyone. The issue with the Chelsea attack is that no one is safe from being subbed off. Chelsea’s target shares are better spent on the wingback below. Real Madrid has the attackers that step up in the big stage of the UCL. Karim Benzema is too cheap despite being goal dependent. Benzema contributes on 28.8% of the club’s overall scoring and has three straight UCL matches with a goal. Dating back to last year, he averages nearly two goals per match in the knockout stage of the UCL. The shot volume is there at 4.78 shots and 4.82 scoring chances created per match.

The pay-up option for Madrid is Vinicius Junior. His ownership often comes in flat for being goal dependent and the most expensive attacker. Vinicius leads the team in scoring chances created with 5.14 per match and averages just 2.66 shots. The on-target rate of 45% leads the club, and 4.03 drawn fouls per match round out the output. Vinicius is a GPP play, and stacking him with Benzema will offer plenty of leverage against a heavy Napoli stack due to the moneyline odds.


Reece James (DraftKings: $5,400)

Reece James will get plenty of set share exposure due to the red card suspension of teammate Ben Chilwell. James averages 6.59 crosses and 3.40 created scoring chances per match. His 3.12 won tackles/interceptions per match will increase against the speed on the counter of Madrid, and his recent performance should keep his ownership lower than it needs to be.

Other Options: Theo Hernandez (DraftKings: $5,200). Mario Rui (DraftKings: $6,100)


Thibault Courtois (DraftKings: $4,800)

Mike Maignan (DraftKings: $4,100)

Jovanni Vidal
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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