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College Football DFS: Bowl Games Projections & CFB Picks | Wednesday, 12/22/2021

Matt Gajewski



The 2021-22 college football bowl schedule has been released and we are embarking on postseason play. There is one game on today’s slate with Missouri vs. Army in the Armed Forces Bowl, providing a showdown slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football bowl game projection article will provide a DFS breakdown and look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out Awesemo’s projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into this week’s iteration of the CFB DFS picks for today’s bowl game matchups.

CFB DFS Picks: College Football Bowl Projections

Armed Forces Bowl: Missouri vs Army

Missouri (26.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 71.6 (48th)

Pass Rate – 50.13% (45th)

After winning three non-conference games, Missouri limped through the SEC to a 6-6 bowl eligible record. As a team, Missouri plays slightly above average in terms of pace and pass rate. This can sometimes help the Missouri quarterbacks. However, the Tigers will start backup quarterback Brady Cook ($13,800). The reason for Connor Bazelak‘s ($14,4000) benching remains unknown. Bazelak started Missouri’s final game, so this has the looks of a performance benching. Cook started one game for Missouri this year against Georgia. Predictably, he turned in a horrific 78 yards passing on 19 attempts. However, he did rush for 32 yards on 10 attempts, giving him some upside on the ground. Army possesses a horrific pass defense, allowing 8.7 yards per attempt. However, their style of play typically depressing the opposing teams play volume. Cook is relatively cheap for a starting quarterback, but his lack of experience makes him risky.

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In the run game, Tyler Badie ($19,500) has handled a staggering workload this year. Badie averages 133.7 yards rushing and 27.8 receiving per game for Missouri. He has carry counts of 35, 28 and 41 in Missouri’s last three games, while also leading the team in targets. Badie averages 5.7 targets per game for Missouri. However, Badie will not play in this game opening a chasm of opportunity. Allegedly, Dawson Downing ($1,500) will draw the start after carrying just nine times all season. This coachspeak alone makes him a smash play at the minimum price. However, Missouri could simply opt to use a committee Behind Downing, Elijah Young ($1,500) has the most carries among backups at 24, but he has been injured recently. BJ Harris ($1,500) and Michael Cox ($1,500) have 22 and 18, respectively. Cox handled three carries in Missouri’s most recent game for those looking at recent trends. Overall, this situation is a mess.

Missouri’s receiving game has ebbed and flowed all season, but Tauskie Dove ($11,700) finished as the team’s leading receiver with 552 yards. He averages 46 yards per game on 4.9 targets. Keke Chism ($12,600) has the exact same target numbers as Dove, but he functions more as a possession receiver. He averages 37.4 yards receiving per game. The third most active receiver in this offense is Barrett Banister ($4,200). Banister participates in about two-thirds of the team’s routes, averaging 15.4 yards per game on 3.2 targets. Banister’s rise coincides with a sharp drop in volume for Dominic Lovett ($1,500), who participated in 3% of the team’s routes in their finale. Niko Hea ($2,700) usually functions as the primary tight end, but he will miss this game with injury. This means Daniel Parker ($1,800) should split time with Messiah Swinson ($1,500) at the position, putting both in play for large field GPPs. Likewise, Mookie Cooper ($9,300), JJ Hester ($2,400), and D’ionte Smith ($2,100)  will also rotate onto the field for a few snaps here and there. Cooper and Hester are the most viable among this group, for those looking at tournament fliers.

Army (30.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 65.6 (90th)

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Pass Rate – 13.94% (129th)

Finishing the season 8-4, Army dropped their most recent game to Navy. Running the triple option offense, Army creates an interesting stylistic matchup for Missouri. The Black Knights also enter this game as the three-point favorite in a 57-point total. At quarterback, Army will use two players in Christian Anderson ($16,500) and Tyheir Tyler ($15,000). Anderson will play most of the snaps and handle all of the pass game work. He averages 64.8 yards on 5.8 pass attempts per game, which is solid for an armed forces quarterback. As a rusher, he has at least nine designed attempts in three straight games and averages 60.4 yards per game on the year. Tyler will play primarily in running situations. He also has at least nine designed rush attempts in three straight games. However, Tyler has not been as efficient, averaging just 47 yards rushing per game on slightly more volume than Anderson. Overall, Anderson is the safest play from Army, but his lack of passing upside reduces his floor ceiling combo.

Army’s triple option attack features fullback Jakobi Buchanan ($10,200). Buchanan averages an inefficient 36.1 yards rushing per game on 9.5 attempts. Most of these carries occur straight up the middle, making Buchanan reliant on touchdowns. Fortunately, Buchanan leads the team with 11 scores. However, Army will split snaps at each of their positions, including fullback. Anthony Adkins ($6,600) averages 6.5 carries per game and Tyson Riley ($1,500) averages 5.0. Cade Ballard ($9,000) also siphons off some snaps, but he is used primarily as a pass blocker. Riley only played one snap against Navy, somewhat reducing this group.

At slot back, Tyrell Robinson ($15,600) and Brandon Walters ($3,000) are the two starters. Robinson averages 50.7 yards rushing per game on 6.8 carries, while Walters sees more of his work in the pass game. Walters only has 15 carries on the year, but he also has ten targets. Either way, Robinson is the preferred slot back. He functions as the team’s second-most targeted receiver with 15 targets on the year as well. Braheam Murphy ($6,000) and AJ Howard ($1,500) are the backup slotbacks, but neither is particularly involved. Murphy has ten targets on the year and Howard has 20 carries.

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At receiver, Isaiah Alston ($8,100) is the only legitimate weapon for the Black Knights. He averages 38.1 yards receiving per game on 2.8 targets. Behind him, Cole Caterbone ($4,800) ranks second in terms of routes, but he only has five targets on the year. Two came against Navy. He also could cede work to Reikan Donaldson ($1,500) who did not play against Navy. Donaldson has six targets on the year. Ay’Juan Marshall ($1,500) and Michael Roberts ($3,600) were rotational pieces against Navy and remains low upside plays here.

Check out Awesemo college football betting experts Ben Rasa and Matt Gajewski breaking down
the entire 2021 College Football Bowl Game Schedule and giving their predictions, best betting picks and parlays.

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Check out our industry-leading FanDuel DFS college football projections. Looking for more DFS CFB FanDuel picks and CFB DFS advice? Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the DFS college football ownership projections for this week.

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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