Matchups in PGA are some of the best bets you can make because they offer lines on both sides, which allows you to get better odds. Golf is highly volatile, which makes it so any golfer can finish at the top or bottom in any given week, so the win probabilities can be difficult to estimate without digging into the data. Having a PGA Power Rankings and Matchups tool is pivotal in winning — whether it’s DFS or betting. ELO ratings are designed to give you the probability in a head-to-head matchup, so they can help us figure out the probability and which bets are likely to be profitable.
Our PGA power rankings are determined by the past year’s performance, weighting more recent tournaments more heavily. This is based on the formula we use for our PGA DFS Projections. These help give us an idea of how many strokes above or below an average field each golfer will score. For this week’s tournament, sports book odds and course fit are incorporated into the ELO rating. S/R_Proj represents the total number of strokes that golfer is expected to above or below average for the week. Like a golf score the lower the better.
To calculate the odds of a head to head matchup, you can use the formula 1/(1+10^((RatingA-RatingB)/400) or you can use a free calculator like this.
This Week's Field
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
| Justin Thomas | -2.23 | 11 | 1883 |
| Xander Schauffele | -2.24 | 6 | 1883 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -2.33 | 9 | 1895 |
| Sepp Straka | -2.02 | 16 | 1856 |
| Sam Burns | -1.15 | 17 | 1745 |
| Corey Conners | -2.07 | 14 | 1862 |
| Shane Lowry | -2.05 | 12 | 1859 |
| Will Zalatoris | -1.88 | 24 | 1837 |
| Tom Kim | -1.61 | 45 | 1804 |
| Jordan Spieth | -1.50 | 74 | 1789 |
| Alex Smalley | -1.41 | 70 | 1778 |
| Michael Kim | -1.69 | 28 | 1814 |
| Lucas Glover | -1.70 | 32 | 1815 |
| J.T. Poston | -1.66 | 34 | 1810 |
| Taylor Moore | -1.43 | 67 | 1780 |
| Luke Clanton | -1.50 | 19 | 1789 |
| Viktor Hovland | -1.63 | 37 | 1806 |
| Adam Scott | -1.75 | 13 | 1821 |
| Byeong Hun An | -1.42 | 61 | 1779 |
| Jake Knapp | -1.24 | 78 | 1757 |
| Cameron Young | -1.16 | 92 | 1746 |
| Ben Griffin | -1.56 | 38 | 1797 |
| Stephan Jaeger | -1.43 | 52 | 1781 |
| Keith Mitchell | -1.34 | 68 | 1769 |
| Sahith Theegala | -1.49 | 47 | 1788 |
| Thomas Detry | -1.38 | 46 | 1774 |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | -1.24 | 1,000 | 1756 |
| Bud Cauley | -1.25 | 55 | 1758 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -1.42 | 48 | 1780 |
| Kurt Kitayama | -1.34 | 58 | 1769 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | -1.12 | 1741 | |
| Ryan Gerard | -1.20 | 1,000 | 1751 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | -1.32 | 57 | 1767 |
| Andrew Novak | -1.27 | 56 | 1760 |
| Billy Horschel | -1.32 | 59 | 1767 |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | -1.06 | 1,000 | 1733 |
| Doug Ghim | -1.29 | 69 | 1763 |
| Sam Stevens | -1.25 | 60 | 1758 |
| Harry Hall | -1.14 | 53 | 1744 |
| Joe Highsmith | -1.41 | 49 | 1778 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | -1.07 | 79 | 1736 |
| Beau Hossler | -1.23 | 63 | 1755 |
| Matt Wallace | -1.09 | 102 | 1737 |
| Max McGreevy | -1.34 | 104 | 1770 |
| Adam Hadwin | -1.02 | 89 | 1729 |
| Kevin Yu | -1.02 | 84 | 1729 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | -0.94 | 90 | 1719 |
| Seamus Power | -1.14 | 73 | 1744 |
| Kevin Roy | -1.08 | 128 | 1736 |
| Matt Kuchar | -1.08 | 75 | 1736 |
| Jesper Svensson | -0.98 | 1,000 | 1723 |
| Joseph Bramlett | -0.85 | 110 | 1707 |
| Sam Ryder | -0.83 | 107 | 1705 |
| Rico Hoey | -1.07 | 97 | 1735 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | -1.07 | 65 | 1735 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | -0.82 | 121 | 1703 |
| Joel Dahmen | -0.97 | 105 | 1723 |
| Ryan Fox | -0.98 | 87 | 1723 |
| Charley Hoffman | -0.82 | 100 | 1704 |
| Karl Vilips | -0.62 | 1,000 | 1678 |
| Adam Schenk | -0.80 | 106 | 1701 |
| Chan Kim | -0.96 | 98 | 1721 |
| Gary Woodland | -0.75 | 101 | 1694 |
| Cameron Davis | -0.90 | 93 | 1713 |
| Andrew Putnam | -1.06 | 66 | 1734 |
| Danny Walker | -0.84 | 1706 | |
| Justin Lower | -0.89 | 77 | 1712 |
| Victor Perez | -0.86 | 86 | 1708 |
| Matti Schmid | -0.75 | 124 | 1695 |
| Quade Cummins | -0.64 | 1681 | |
| Greyson Sigg | -0.87 | 103 | 1710 |
| Aldrich Potgieter | -0.48 | 1,000 | 1661 |
| Davis Riley | -0.31 | 181 | 1639 |
| Eric Cole | -0.76 | 94 | 1696 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | -0.63 | 85 | 1679 |
| Antoine Rozner | -0.48 | 1,000 | 1661 |
| Patrick Fishburn | -0.75 | 82 | 1695 |
| Mac Meissner | -0.74 | 116 | 1693 |
| C.T. Pan | -0.68 | 112 | 1686 |
| Chandler Phillips | -0.57 | 127 | 1672 |
| Brian Campbell | -0.82 | 1,000 | 1704 |
| Adam Svensson | -0.90 | 95 | 1713 |
| Takumi Kanaya | -0.84 | 157 | 1706 |
| Matthew McCarty | -0.58 | 1,000 | 1673 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | -0.59 | 81 | 1674 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | -0.71 | 96 | 1689 |
| Matteo Manassero | -0.45 | 1,000 | 1657 |
| Carson Young | -0.66 | 119 | 1684 |
| Chris Gotterup | -0.35 | 150 | 1644 |
| Kris Ventura | -0.48 | 1,000 | 1661 |
| Ben Kohles | -0.63 | 125 | 1679 |
| Jeremy Paul | -0.20 | 1,000 | 1625 |
| Ricky Castillo | -0.47 | 117 | 1659 |
| Brice Garnett | -0.52 | 137 | 1665 |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | -0.30 | 170 | 1637 |
| Jackson Suber | -0.27 | 1,000 | 1633 |
| Vince Whaley | -0.63 | 108 | 1680 |
| Webb Simpson | -0.41 | 114 | 1652 |
| Steven Fisk | -0.65 | 1,000 | 1682 |
| Henrik Norlander | -0.55 | 122 | 1670 |
| Neal Shipley | -0.25 | 1631 | |
| Thriston Lawrence | -0.26 | 1,000 | 1633 |
| Ben Silverman | -0.50 | 118 | 1663 |
| Lanto Griffin | -0.30 | 129 | 1637 |
| Mark Hubbard | -0.49 | 130 | 1662 |
| Matthieu Pavon | -0.61 | 1,000 | 1676 |
| Chad Ramey | -0.41 | 135 | 1651 |
| Patton Kizzire | -0.33 | 140 | 1641 |
| Zach Johnson | 0.04 | 111 | 1594 |
| Luke List | -0.27 | 136 | 1633 |
| Frankie Capan | -0.02 | 1,000 | 1602 |
| Brandt Snedeker | -0.30 | 173 | 1637 |
| Kieron Van Wyk | 0.34 | 1,000 | 1557 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 0.96 | 180 | 1478 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | -0.30 | 1638 | |
| Ben Martin | -0.06 | 142 | 1607 |
| Nick Hardy | 0.12 | 147 | 1584 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -0.36 | 139 | 1645 |
| William Mouw | -0.19 | 1,000 | 1623 |
| Blades Brown | -0.01 | 1,000 | 1600 |
| Vincent Norrman | 0.12 | 172 | 1585 |
| Sami Valimaki | 0.10 | 166 | 1586 |
| Noah Goodwin | -0.01 | 1,000 | 1601 |
| Alejandro Tosti | 0.12 | 179 | 1585 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | 0.00 | 148 | 1600 |
| Tim Widing | 0.12 | 1585 | |
| Paul Peterson | 0.04 | 1,000 | 1595 |
| Camilo Villegas | 0.29 | 177 | 1562 |
| Will Gordon | 0.05 | 161 | 1594 |
| Danny Willett | 0.02 | 165 | 1597 |
| Thomas Rosenmueller | 0.17 | 1,000 | 1578 |
| Nate Lashley | 0.20 | 149 | 1575 |
| David Skinns | 0.64 | 182 | 1518 |
| Kevin Tway | 0.46 | 126 | 1541 |
| Nick Gabrelcik | 0.34 | 1,000 | 1556 |
| Paul Waring | 0.24 | 1570 | |
| Harry Higgs | 0.75 | 195 | 1504 |
| Matthew Riedel | 0.57 | 1,000 | 1527 |
| Hayden Buckley | 0.75 | 194 | 1505 |
| John Pak | 0.23 | 1571 | |
| Trevor Cone | 1.19 | 1449 | |
| Mason Andersen | 0.68 | 1,000 | 1513 |
| Kevin Velo | 0.75 | 1,000 | 1505 |
| Will Chandler | 0.81 | 1,000 | 1497 |
| Philip Knowles | 1.82 | 1369 | |
| Peter Malnati | 0.36 | 188 | 1554 |
| David Lipsky | 0.31 | 151 | 1561 |
| Taylor Dickson | 0.83 | 1,000 | 1494 |
| Luke Donald | 1.29 | 1436 | |
| Braden Thornberry | 1.08 | 1,000 | 1463 |
| Rafael Campos | 1.12 | 193 | 1458 |
| Cristobal Del Solar | 1.41 | 1,000 | 1421 |
| Kaito Onishi | 1.41 | 1,000 | 1421 |
| Kevin Kisner | 1.64 | 204 | 1392 |
| Greg Koch | 2.94 | 1,000 | 1227 |
| Andre Chi | 2.65 | 1,000 | 1264 |
Power Rankings
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
| Justin Thomas | -2.41 | 11 | 1905 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -2.48 | 8 | 1914 |
| Daniel Berger | -1.89 | 30 | 1839 |
| Viktor Hovland | -1.76 | 37 | 1823 |
| Rory McIlroy | -2.97 | 3 | 1975 |
| Scottie Scheffler | -3.73 | 1 | 2071 |
| Shane Lowry | -2.29 | 12 | 1889 |
| Sam Burns | -2.04 | 17 | 1858 |
| Xander Schauffele | -2.58 | 6 | 1926 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | -1.93 | 25 | 1844 |
| Russell Henley | -2.59 | 5 | 1927 |
| Collin Morikawa | -3.13 | 2 | 1997 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | -2.46 | 10 | 1911 |
| Sungjae Im | -1.92 | 27 | 1842 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -1.63 | 43 | 1806 |
| Cameron Young | -0.92 | 92 | 1716 |
| Taylor Montgomery | -0.37 | 146 | 1646 |
| Corey Conners | -2.26 | 14 | 1886 |
| Billy Horschel | -1.37 | 59 | 1774 |
| Seamus Power | -1.13 | 73 | 1743 |
| Alex Noren | -1.96 | 22 | 1848 |
| Will Zalatoris | -1.94 | 24 | 1846 |
| Max Homa | -0.77 | 109 | 1697 |
| Webb Simpson | -0.68 | 114 | 1686 |
| Adam Scott | -2.27 | 13 | 1887 |
| Tony Finau | -1.86 | 31 | 1835 |
| Tom Hoge | -1.17 | 71 | 1748 |
| Bud Cauley | -1.42 | 55 | 1780 |
| Jordan Spieth | -1.10 | 74 | 1739 |
| Keegan Bradley | -2.02 | 18 | 1856 |
| Keith Mitchell | -1.20 | 68 | 1752 |
| Maverick McNealy | -1.78 | 35 | 1825 |
| Harris English | -1.45 | 51 | 1784 |
| Chris Kirk | -0.98 | 88 | 1724 |
| Brian Harman | -1.48 | 50 | 1788 |
| Harry Hall | -1.43 | 53 | 1781 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -2.47 | 9 | 1913 |
| Patton Kizzire | -0.43 | 140 | 1654 |
| Robert MacIntyre | -2.50 | 7 | 1916 |
| Adam Hadwin | -0.96 | 89 | 1721 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -1.51 | 48 | 1790 |
| Gary Woodland | -0.83 | 101 | 1705 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | -1.26 | 65 | 1759 |
| Jason Day | -1.81 | 33 | 1829 |
| Kevin Streelman | -0.27 | 154 | 1634 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | -0.95 | 90 | 1720 |
| Justin Rose | -1.55 | 44 | 1796 |
| Luke List | -0.48 | 136 | 1661 |
| Denny McCarthy | -2.00 | 20 | 1853 |
| Kevin Kisner | 1.24 | 204 | 1443 |
| Joel Dahmen | -0.79 | 105 | 1700 |
| Erik van Rooyen | -0.72 | 113 | 1690 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | -0.35 | 148 | 1644 |
| Taylor Pendrith | -1.72 | 39 | 1817 |
| Thomas Detry | -1.54 | 46 | 1794 |
| Mark Hubbard | -0.55 | 130 | 1669 |
| Isaiah Salinda | -1.08 | 76 | 1736 |
| Sepp Straka | -2.08 | 16 | 1863 |
| Matt Kuchar | -1.09 | 75 | 1737 |
| Scott Stallings | -0.27 | 155 | 1634 |
| Doug Ghim | -1.20 | 69 | 1752 |
| Davis Riley | 0.21 | 181 | 1572 |
| Si Woo Kim | -1.92 | 29 | 1842 |
| Aaron Rai | -2.11 | 15 | 1867 |
| Troy Merritt | 0.12 | 176 | 1584 |
| Sahith Theegala | -1.51 | 47 | 1791 |
| Erik Barnes | 1.45 | 207 | 1416 |
| Cameron Davis | -0.92 | 93 | 1716 |
| Lanto Griffin | -0.55 | 129 | 1669 |
| Martin Laird | -0.40 | 144 | 1650 |
| Austin Eckroat | -1.27 | 64 | 1760 |
| Stewart Cink | -0.52 | 134 | 1665 |
| C.T. Pan | -0.73 | 112 | 1692 |
| Alex Smalley | -1.20 | 70 | 1751 |
| Taylor Moore | -1.23 | 67 | 1755 |
| Zach Johnson | -0.75 | 111 | 1695 |
| Ryan Moore | -0.38 | 145 | 1648 |
| Brendon Todd | 0.35 | 185 | 1555 |
| Dylan Wu | -0.27 | 156 | 1633 |
| Brice Garnett | -0.48 | 137 | 1660 |
| Rickie Fowler | -1.05 | 80 | 1733 |
| Lucas Glover | -1.85 | 32 | 1834 |
| Nick Taylor | -1.43 | 54 | 1780 |
| Danny Willett | -0.07 | 165 | 1608 |
| Patrick Rodgers | -1.34 | 62 | 1770 |
| Adam Svensson | -0.90 | 95 | 1714 |
| Beau Hossler | -1.28 | 63 | 1761 |
| Chan Kim | -0.86 | 98 | 1709 |
| Sam Ryder | -0.78 | 107 | 1698 |
| J.J. Spaun | -1.99 | 21 | 1852 |
| Nick Hardy | -0.36 | 147 | 1645 |
| Francesco Molinari | 0.07 | 174 | 1590 |
| Andrew Putnam | -1.24 | 66 | 1757 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -0.44 | 139 | 1655 |
| Akshay Bhatia | -1.92 | 26 | 1843 |
| Ryan Palmer | 0.87 | 197 | 1490 |
| Greyson Sigg | -0.80 | 103 | 1701 |
| Charley Hoffman | -0.83 | 100 | 1705 |
| Tyler Duncan | -0.05 | 167 | 1605 |
| Harry Higgs | 0.79 | 195 | 1499 |
| David Lipsky | -0.30 | 151 | 1638 |
| Austin Smotherman | -0.68 | 115 | 1686 |
| Chez Reavie | 0.15 | 178 | 1581 |
| Tom Kim | -1.55 | 45 | 1795 |
| Peter Malnati | 0.41 | 188 | 1547 |
| Vince Whaley | -0.77 | 108 | 1697 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0.04 | 173 | 1594 |
| Wyndham Clark | -1.70 | 41 | 1815 |
| Lee Hodges | -1.16 | 72 | 1747 |
| Matt Wallace | -0.82 | 102 | 1703 |
| Trey Mullinax | 0.12 | 175 | 1585 |
| Byeong Hun An | -1.35 | 61 | 1771 |
| Garrick Higgo | -0.66 | 120 | 1683 |
| Nate Lashley | -0.32 | 149 | 1640 |
| Kevin Tway | -0.56 | 126 | 1671 |
| James Hahn | -0.08 | 164 | 1610 |
| Roger Sloan | -0.04 | 168 | 1605 |
| J.T. Poston | -1.78 | 34 | 1826 |
| Justin Suh | -0.46 | 138 | 1657 |
| Cameron Champ | -0.17 | 159 | 1621 |
| Davis Thompson | -1.71 | 40 | 1816 |
| Henrik Norlander | -0.63 | 122 | 1679 |
| Scott Piercy | -0.43 | 141 | 1654 |
| Kevin Chappell | -0.52 | 133 | 1666 |
| Josh Teater | 0.85 | 196 | 1492 |
| Camilo Villegas | 0.12 | 177 | 1584 |
| Bill Haas | 0.91 | 201 | 1484 |
| Victor Perez | -0.99 | 86 | 1725 |
| Hayden Buckley | 0.78 | 194 | 1500 |
| Joseph Bramlett | -0.76 | 110 | 1696 |
| Adam Schenk | -0.79 | 106 | 1699 |
| Stephan Jaeger | -1.44 | 52 | 1781 |
| Will Gordon | -0.11 | 161 | 1614 |
| Ben Martin | -0.42 | 142 | 1653 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 0.17 | 180 | 1578 |
| Ben Taylor | 0.88 | 198 | 1488 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 0.02 | 171 | 1597 |
| Ben Kohles | -0.57 | 125 | 1671 |
| Andrew Novak | -1.41 | 56 | 1778 |
| Takumi Kanaya | -0.27 | 157 | 1633 |
| Robby Shelton | -0.29 | 153 | 1637 |
| Wesley Bryan | -0.53 | 132 | 1667 |
| Paul Barjon | 1.36 | 205 | 1427 |
| Brandon Wu | -0.30 | 152 | 1638 |
| Chad Ramey | -0.50 | 135 | 1663 |
| Scott Gutschewski | 1.66 | 209 | 1390 |
| Max McGreevy | -0.79 | 104 | 1700 |
| Ryan Brehm | 0.95 | 202 | 1480 |
| Kurt Kitayama | -1.39 | 58 | 1775 |
| Chesson Hadley | -0.26 | 158 | 1632 |
| Justin Lower | -1.07 | 77 | 1735 |
| Austin Cook | 0.91 | 200 | 1484 |
| Rafael Campos | 0.69 | 193 | 1512 |
| Callum Tarren | 0.38 | 186 | 1552 |
| Matti Schmid | -0.62 | 124 | 1678 |
| Kevin Yu | -1.03 | 84 | 1730 |
| Sami Valimaki | -0.06 | 166 | 1607 |
| Kelly Kraft | -0.93 | 91 | 1718 |
| Ryan Fox | -0.98 | 87 | 1724 |
| J.B. Holmes | 1.79 | 210 | 1373 |
| Martin Trainer | 1.14 | 203 | 1455 |
| Min Woo Lee | -1.64 | 42 | 1807 |
| David Skinns | 0.26 | 182 | 1567 |
| Zac Blair | -0.42 | 143 | 1653 |
| Ricky Castillo | -0.67 | 117 | 1685 |
| Michael Kim | -1.92 | 28 | 1842 |
| Grayson Murray | -0.86 | 99 | 1708 |
| Jorge Campillo | -0.54 | 131 | 1668 |
| Cody Gribble | 1.55 | 208 | 1403 |
| Parker Coody | -0.03 | 169 | 1603 |
| Carson Young | -0.67 | 119 | 1685 |
| Chris Gotterup | -0.31 | 150 | 1639 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | -0.63 | 121 | 1680 |
| Ben Silverman | -0.67 | 118 | 1685 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | -1.05 | 81 | 1732 |
| Alex Noren | -1.96 | 22 | 1848 |
| Carl Yuan | 0.34 | 184 | 1556 |
| Sam Stevens | -1.37 | 60 | 1773 |
| Kevin Roy | -0.55 | 128 | 1670 |
| Vincent Norrman | 0.03 | 172 | 1595 |
| Ben Griffin | -1.72 | 38 | 1818 |
| Eric Cole | -0.91 | 94 | 1714 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | -1.01 | 85 | 1727 |
| Harrison Endycott | 0.53 | 192 | 1532 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | -1.40 | 57 | 1777 |
| Tyson Alexander | 0.49 | 191 | 1538 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | -1.05 | 79 | 1733 |
| Nick Dunlap | -0.62 | 123 | 1678 |
| Luke Clanton | -2.02 | 19 | 1856 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | -0.89 | 96 | 1712 |
| Chandler Phillips | -0.56 | 127 | 1670 |
| Alejandro Tosti | 0.16 | 179 | 1579 |
| Mac Meissner | -0.68 | 116 | 1685 |
| Jake Knapp | -1.06 | 78 | 1734 |
| Max Greyserman | -1.77 | 36 | 1824 |
| Pierceson Coody | -0.11 | 162 | 1614 |
| Patrick Fishburn | -1.04 | 82 | 1731 |
| Trace Crowe | -0.13 | 160 | 1616 |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.01 | 170 | 1599 |
| Kevin Dougherty | 0.40 | 187 | 1548 |
| Joe Highsmith | -1.50 | 49 | 1789 |
| Rico Hoey | -0.88 | 97 | 1710 |
| Hayden Springer | -1.03 | 83 | 1730 |
| Wilson Furr | 0.46 | 189 | 1541 |
| Ryan McCormick | 0.47 | 190 | 1540 |
| Nicholas Lindheim | 0.28 | 183 | 1564 |
| Tom Whitney | -0.08 | 163 | 1610 |
| Blaine Hale | 0.89 | 199 | 1487 |
| Raul Pereda | 1.39 | 206 | 1424 |
| Ludvig Aberg | -2.66 | 4 | 1937 |
