Matchups in PGA are some of the best bets you can make because they offer lines on both sides, which allows you to get better odds. Golf is highly volatile, which makes it so any golfer can finish at the top or bottom in any given week, so the win probabilities can be difficult to estimate without digging into the data. Having a PGA Power Rankings and Matchups tool is pivotal in winning — whether it’s DFS or betting. ELO ratings are designed to give you the probability in a head-to-head matchup, so they can help us figure out the probability and which bets are likely to be profitable.
Our PGA power rankings are determined by the past year’s performance, weighting more recent tournaments more heavily. This is based on the formula we use for our PGA DFS Projections. These help give us an idea of how many strokes above or below an average field each golfer will score. For this week’s tournament, sports book odds and course fit are incorporated into the ELO rating. S/R_Proj represents the total number of strokes that golfer is expected to above or below average for the week. Like a golf score the lower the better.
To calculate the odds of a head to head matchup, you can use the formula 1/(1+10^((RatingA-RatingB)/400) or you can use a free calculator like this.
This Week's Field
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
| Scottie Scheffler | -3.55 | 1 | 2049 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -2.32 | 11 | 1893 |
| Ludvig Aberg | -2.46 | 7 | 1911 |
| Justin Thomas | -2.33 | 21 | 1895 |
| Sam Burns | -2.12 | 13 | 1868 |
| Russell Henley | -2.34 | 4 | 1896 |
| Tom Kim | -1.74 | 40 | 1820 |
| Wyndham Clark | -1.79 | 26 | 1826 |
| Sungjae Im | -2.24 | 12 | 1883 |
| Jason Day | -1.66 | 37 | 1810 |
| Sahith Theegala | -1.75 | 36 | 1821 |
| Robert Macintyre | -1.93 | 6 | 1845 |
| Aaron Rai | -1.58 | 23 | 1799 |
| Cameron Young | -1.39 | 62 | 1775 |
| Akshay Bhatia | -1.43 | 57 | 1780 |
| Brian Harman | -1.69 | 30 | 1814 |
| Keegan Bradley | -1.37 | 43 | 1773 |
| Nick Dunlap | -0.91 | 105 | 1714 |
| Sepp Straka | -1.41 | 52 | 1778 |
| Matthieu Pavon | -0.42 | 1,000 | 1652 |
Power Rankings
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
| Jon Rahm | -2.32 | 9 | 1893 |
| Justin Thomas | -1.98 | 21 | 1850 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -2.25 | 11 | 1885 |
| Daniel Berger | -0.85 | 98 | 1707 |
| Viktor Hovland | -2.15 | 17 | 1872 |
| Rory McIlroy | -2.49 | 5 | 1915 |
| Scottie Scheffler | -3.81 | 1 | 2082 |
| Shane Lowry | -1.98 | 19 | 1850 |
| Sam Burns | -2.20 | 13 | 1878 |
| Xander Schauffele | -3.23 | 2 | 2009 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | -2.05 | 18 | 1859 |
| Russell Henley | -2.52 | 4 | 1919 |
| Collin Morikawa | -2.66 | 3 | 1937 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | -2.31 | 10 | 1892 |
| Sungjae Im | -2.23 | 12 | 1882 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -1.73 | 33 | 1819 |
| Cameron Young | -1.36 | 62 | 1771 |
| Taylor Montgomery | -0.07 | 167 | 1608 |
| Corey Conners | -2.18 | 15 | 1876 |
| Billy Horschel | -1.77 | 31 | 1824 |
| Seamus Power | -1.36 | 61 | 1771 |
| Alex Noren | -1.90 | 24 | 1840 |
| Will Zalatoris | -1.71 | 35 | 1816 |
| Max Homa | -1.11 | 78 | 1740 |
| Webb Simpson | -0.63 | 120 | 1679 |
| Adam Scott | -2.36 | 8 | 1899 |
| Tony Finau | -1.98 | 20 | 1850 |
| Tom Hoge | -1.14 | 75 | 1744 |
| Bud Cauley | -0.82 | 100 | 1704 |
| Jordan Spieth | -1.13 | 77 | 1743 |
| Keegan Bradley | -1.50 | 43 | 1790 |
| Keith Mitchell | -1.11 | 80 | 1740 |
| Maverick McNealy | -1.47 | 46 | 1785 |
| Harris English | -1.50 | 44 | 1790 |
| Chris Kirk | -1.19 | 73 | 1750 |
| Brian Harman | -1.79 | 30 | 1827 |
| Harry Hall | -1.45 | 48 | 1783 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -2.16 | 16 | 1873 |
| Patton Kizzire | -0.43 | 138 | 1654 |
| Robert MacIntyre | -2.48 | 6 | 1914 |
| Adam Hadwin | -0.87 | 97 | 1709 |
| Russell Knox | 0.31 | 186 | 1561 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -1.45 | 47 | 1783 |
| Gary Woodland | -1.02 | 90 | 1729 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | -1.37 | 60 | 1773 |
| Jason Day | -1.66 | 37 | 1810 |
| Kevin Streelman | -0.36 | 147 | 1645 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | -1.08 | 83 | 1736 |
| Justin Rose | -1.28 | 65 | 1761 |
| Luke List | -0.56 | 126 | 1670 |
| Denny McCarthy | -1.71 | 34 | 1816 |
| Kevin Kisner | 1.09 | 213 | 1462 |
| Joel Dahmen | -0.34 | 150 | 1642 |
| Erik van Rooyen | -0.76 | 112 | 1696 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | -0.57 | 124 | 1672 |
| Taylor Pendrith | -1.81 | 28 | 1829 |
| Thomas Detry | -1.22 | 72 | 1754 |
| Mark Hubbard | -1.04 | 88 | 1731 |
| Sepp Straka | -1.42 | 52 | 1779 |
| Matt Kuchar | -1.24 | 69 | 1757 |
| Scott Stallings | -0.25 | 153 | 1631 |
| Doug Ghim | -1.53 | 41 | 1793 |
| Davis Riley | -0.20 | 156 | 1625 |
| Si Woo Kim | -1.75 | 32 | 1821 |
| Aaron Rai | -1.92 | 23 | 1843 |
| Troy Merritt | 0.10 | 176 | 1587 |
| Sahith Theegala | -1.68 | 36 | 1812 |
| Erik Barnes | 1.47 | 218 | 1413 |
| Cameron Davis | -0.89 | 96 | 1712 |
| Lanto Griffin | -0.47 | 134 | 1659 |
| Martin Laird | -0.34 | 149 | 1643 |
| Austin Eckroat | -1.45 | 49 | 1783 |
| Stewart Cink | -0.21 | 155 | 1626 |
| C.T. Pan | -1.18 | 74 | 1749 |
| Alex Smalley | -0.50 | 132 | 1663 |
| Taylor Moore | -0.95 | 94 | 1720 |
| Dylan Frittelli | 1.46 | 217 | 1414 |
| Zach Johnson | -0.67 | 116 | 1684 |
| Adam Long | 0.21 | 179 | 1573 |
| Ryan Moore | -0.47 | 135 | 1659 |
| Brendon Todd | -0.68 | 115 | 1686 |
| Dylan Wu | -0.51 | 130 | 1665 |
| Brice Garnett | -0.20 | 157 | 1625 |
| Rickie Fowler | -1.34 | 63 | 1769 |
| Lucas Glover | -1.41 | 53 | 1778 |
| Nick Taylor | -0.61 | 121 | 1677 |
| Patrick Rodgers | -1.13 | 76 | 1743 |
| Adam Svensson | -1.25 | 68 | 1758 |
| Beau Hossler | -1.39 | 56 | 1776 |
| Chan Kim | -1.02 | 89 | 1729 |
| Sam Ryder | -0.35 | 148 | 1643 |
| J.J. Spaun | -1.58 | 39 | 1800 |
| Nick Hardy | -0.76 | 111 | 1696 |
| Kramer Hickok | 0.06 | 175 | 1592 |
| Francesco Molinari | -0.20 | 158 | 1625 |
| Andrew Putnam | -1.27 | 66 | 1761 |
| Lucas Herbert | -0.81 | 102 | 1702 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -1.09 | 82 | 1738 |
| Akshay Bhatia | -1.38 | 57 | 1775 |
| Ryan Palmer | 0.38 | 192 | 1552 |
| Greyson Sigg | -0.94 | 95 | 1718 |
| Charley Hoffman | -0.78 | 108 | 1698 |
| Tyler Duncan | -0.13 | 163 | 1616 |
| Harry Higgs | 0.77 | 206 | 1502 |
| David Lipsky | -0.66 | 117 | 1683 |
| Austin Smotherman | -0.49 | 133 | 1661 |
| Robert Streb | 0.36 | 190 | 1554 |
| Chez Reavie | -0.01 | 170 | 1601 |
| Tom Kim | -1.55 | 40 | 1796 |
| Peter Malnati | 0.25 | 180 | 1567 |
| Vince Whaley | -0.77 | 110 | 1697 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0.65 | 202 | 1518 |
| Wyndham Clark | -1.89 | 26 | 1839 |
| Lee Hodges | -0.60 | 123 | 1676 |
| Matt Wallace | -1.02 | 91 | 1728 |
| Byeong Hun An | -1.64 | 38 | 1807 |
| Garrick Higgo | -0.50 | 131 | 1663 |
| Nate Lashley | -0.83 | 99 | 1705 |
| Kevin Tway | -0.36 | 146 | 1645 |
| James Hahn | -0.01 | 171 | 1600 |
| Roger Sloan | -0.16 | 162 | 1620 |
| Jason Dufner | 0.27 | 182 | 1565 |
| J.T. Poston | -1.51 | 42 | 1790 |
| Justin Suh | -0.46 | 136 | 1657 |
| Cameron Champ | -0.22 | 154 | 1628 |
| Davis Thompson | -1.84 | 27 | 1832 |
| Henrik Norlander | -0.41 | 140 | 1651 |
| Scott Piercy | -0.55 | 127 | 1670 |
| Kevin Chappell | -0.40 | 141 | 1650 |
| Josh Teater | 0.87 | 208 | 1489 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | -0.40 | 142 | 1650 |
| Camilo Villegas | 0.69 | 203 | 1512 |
| Sean O'Hair | 0.58 | 199 | 1526 |
| Bill Haas | 0.48 | 197 | 1539 |
| Victor Perez | -1.42 | 51 | 1779 |
| Hayden Buckley | 0.47 | 196 | 1540 |
| Jimmy Walker | 1.03 | 212 | 1470 |
| Joseph Bramlett | -0.64 | 118 | 1681 |
| Nick Watney | 1.80 | 224 | 1371 |
| Adam Schenk | -0.33 | 151 | 1642 |
| Stephan Jaeger | -1.07 | 86 | 1735 |
| Will Gordon | 0.05 | 173 | 1593 |
| Ben Martin | -0.44 | 137 | 1655 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 0.29 | 184 | 1563 |
| Ben Taylor | 0.89 | 209 | 1487 |
| Bronson Burgoon | -0.20 | 159 | 1625 |
| MJ Daffue | 0.32 | 188 | 1559 |
| Ben Kohles | -0.38 | 144 | 1647 |
| Jim Herman | 1.83 | 225 | 1367 |
| William McGirt | 0.31 | 187 | 1560 |
| Andrew Novak | -1.42 | 50 | 1779 |
| Richy Werenski | 0.73 | 205 | 1507 |
| Robby Shelton | 0.00 | 172 | 1599 |
| Wesley Bryan | -0.52 | 129 | 1665 |
| Paul Barjon | 1.15 | 214 | 1454 |
| Brandon Wu | -0.17 | 161 | 1621 |
| Chad Ramey | -0.69 | 113 | 1687 |
| Michael Gligic | 1.77 | 223 | 1375 |
| Scott Gutschewski | 1.65 | 221 | 1390 |
| Max McGreevy | 0.27 | 181 | 1565 |
| Ryan Brehm | 0.89 | 210 | 1487 |
| Kurt Kitayama | -1.81 | 29 | 1828 |
| Chesson Hadley | -0.43 | 139 | 1654 |
| Justin Lower | -1.27 | 67 | 1761 |
| Austin Cook | 0.70 | 204 | 1511 |
| Andrew Landry | 1.59 | 220 | 1398 |
| Rafael Campos | 0.06 | 174 | 1593 |
| Callum Tarren | 0.60 | 200 | 1523 |
| Matti Schmid | -0.78 | 107 | 1698 |
| Kevin Yu | -0.57 | 125 | 1671 |
| Sami Valimaki | -0.11 | 166 | 1614 |
| Kelly Kraft | -0.61 | 122 | 1677 |
| Ryan Fox | -0.98 | 93 | 1723 |
| J.B. Holmes | 1.69 | 222 | 1385 |
| Martin Trainer | 1.49 | 219 | 1410 |
| Min Woo Lee | -1.41 | 54 | 1778 |
| David Skinns | -0.12 | 164 | 1615 |
| Kyle Westmoreland | 1.00 | 211 | 1473 |
| Zac Blair | -0.37 | 145 | 1646 |
| Michael Kim | -1.01 | 92 | 1728 |
| Grayson Murray | -0.77 | 109 | 1697 |
| Peter Kuest | -0.69 | 114 | 1687 |
| Jorge Campillo | -0.54 | 128 | 1668 |
| Cody Gribble | 1.36 | 216 | 1428 |
| Parker Coody | -0.06 | 168 | 1608 |
| Carson Young | -1.06 | 87 | 1734 |
| Chris Gotterup | -0.19 | 160 | 1624 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | -0.63 | 119 | 1679 |
| Ben Silverman | -1.22 | 70 | 1754 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | -1.37 | 59 | 1773 |
| Alex Noren | -1.90 | 24 | 1840 |
| Carl Yuan | 0.32 | 189 | 1559 |
| Zecheng Dou | 0.14 | 178 | 1582 |
| Sam Stevens | -1.08 | 84 | 1736 |
| Vincent Norrman | 0.10 | 177 | 1587 |
| Ben Griffin | -1.48 | 45 | 1787 |
| Eric Cole | -1.38 | 58 | 1774 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | -0.81 | 101 | 1702 |
| Harrison Endycott | 0.47 | 195 | 1541 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | -1.39 | 55 | 1776 |
| Tyson Alexander | 0.62 | 201 | 1521 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | -0.81 | 103 | 1702 |
| Nick Dunlap | -0.80 | 105 | 1701 |
| Luke Clanton | -1.95 | 22 | 1846 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | -0.81 | 104 | 1702 |
| Chandler Phillips | -1.07 | 85 | 1735 |
| Alejandro Tosti | 0.29 | 185 | 1563 |
| Mac Meissner | -1.11 | 81 | 1740 |
| Jake Knapp | -0.12 | 165 | 1615 |
| Max Greyserman | -2.19 | 14 | 1877 |
| Pierceson Coody | -0.30 | 152 | 1637 |
| Patrick Fishburn | -1.11 | 79 | 1740 |
| Trace Crowe | -0.39 | 143 | 1649 |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.41 | 194 | 1548 |
| Kevin Dougherty | 0.37 | 191 | 1553 |
| Joe Highsmith | -1.34 | 64 | 1769 |
| Rico Hoey | -1.22 | 71 | 1754 |
| Hayden Springer | -0.79 | 106 | 1700 |
| Wilson Furr | 0.39 | 193 | 1550 |
| Ryan McCormick | 0.50 | 198 | 1536 |
| Nicholas Lindheim | 0.28 | 183 | 1564 |
| Tom Whitney | -0.05 | 169 | 1606 |
| Blaine Hale | 0.78 | 207 | 1501 |
| Raul Pereda | 1.16 | 215 | 1453 |
| Ludvig Aberg | -2.39 | 7 | 1902 |
