Matchups in PGA are some of the best bets you can make because they offer lines on both sides, which allows you to get better odds. Golf is highly volatile, which makes it so any golfer can finish at the top or bottom in any given week, so the win probabilities can be difficult to estimate without digging into the data. Having a PGA Power Rankings and Matchups tool is pivotal in winning — whether it’s DFS or betting. ELO ratings are designed to give you the probability in a head-to-head matchup, so they can help us figure out the probability and which bets are likely to be profitable.
Our PGA power rankings are determined by the past year’s performance, weighting more recent tournaments more heavily. This is based on the formula we use for our PGA DFS Projections. These help give us an idea of how many strokes above or below an average field each golfer will score. For this week’s tournament, sports book odds and course fit are incorporated into the ELO rating. S/R_Proj represents the total number of strokes that golfer is expected to above or below average for the week. Like a golf score the lower the better.
To calculate the odds of a head to head matchup, you can use the formula 1/(1+10^((RatingA-RatingB)/400) or you can use a free calculator like this.
This Week's Field
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
| Viktor Hovland | -2.80 | 3 | 1954 |
| Scottie Scheffler | -3.00 | 1 | 1980 |
| Max Homa | -2.41 | 7 | 1905 |
| Collin Morikawa | -2.44 | 8 | 1908 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -2.12 | 12 | 1868 |
| Cameron Young | -1.86 | 31 | 1836 |
| Justin Thomas | -1.90 | 45 | 1841 |
| Rickie Fowler | -1.93 | 19 | 1845 |
| Tony Finau | -1.83 | 34 | 1831 |
| Jordan Spieth | -1.80 | 24 | 1828 |
| Wyndham Clark | -1.94 | 9 | 1845 |
| Sam Burns | -1.74 | 33 | 1820 |
| Justin Rose | -1.62 | 26 | 1805 |
| Keegan Bradley | -1.71 | 29 | 1815 |
| Sepp Straka | -1.45 | 43 | 1783 |
| Will Zalatoris | -1.61 | 18 | 1804 |
| Jason Day | -1.44 | 30 | 1782 |
| Brian Harman | -1.78 | 14 | 1824 |
| Tiger Woods | -0.49 | 1662 | |
| Lucas Glover | -1.07 | 80 | 1735 |
Power Rankings
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
| Jon Rahm | -2.56 | 6 | 1924 |
| Justin Thomas | -1.37 | 45 | 1773 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -2.82 | 4 | 1957 |
| Cameron Smith | -2.10 | 16 | 1866 |
| Viktor Hovland | -2.92 | 3 | 1969 |
| Rory McIlroy | -3.34 | 2 | 2023 |
| Scottie Scheffler | -3.45 | 1 | 2037 |
| Dustin Johnson | -1.49 | 42 | 1788 |
| Shane Lowry | -1.53 | 40 | 1793 |
| Sam Burns | -1.62 | 33 | 1804 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | -0.98 | 76 | 1724 |
| Xander Schauffele | -2.60 | 5 | 1929 |
| Paul Casey | -1.35 | 46 | 1770 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | -2.13 | 15 | 1869 |
| Russell Henley | -2.27 | 11 | 1887 |
| Collin Morikawa | -2.36 | 8 | 1898 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | -1.56 | 36 | 1798 |
| Sungjae Im | -2.18 | 13 | 1875 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | -0.48 | 129 | 1661 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -2.19 | 12 | 1877 |
| Cameron Young | -1.65 | 31 | 1809 |
| Joaquin Niemann | -1.53 | 37 | 1794 |
| Taylor Montgomery | -0.98 | 74 | 1724 |
| Sergio Garcia | -0.90 | 84 | 1713 |
| Corey Conners | -1.97 | 20 | 1849 |
| Billy Horschel | -0.60 | 115 | 1676 |
| Seamus Power | -0.76 | 100 | 1695 |
| Alex Noren | -1.04 | 67 | 1732 |
| Will Zalatoris | -1.99 | 18 | 1852 |
| Abraham Ancer | -0.88 | 86 | 1711 |
| Talor Gooch | -0.87 | 88 | 1709 |
| Max Homa | -2.41 | 7 | 1905 |
| Ian Poulter | -0.12 | 171 | 1615 |
| Webb Simpson | -0.36 | 144 | 1646 |
| Adam Scott | -1.76 | 25 | 1823 |
| Tony Finau | -1.59 | 34 | 1800 |
| Harold Varner III | -0.91 | 82 | 1714 |
| Tom Hoge | -0.85 | 89 | 1708 |
| Jason Kokrak | -0.38 | 141 | 1647 |
| Jordan Spieth | -1.77 | 24 | 1824 |
| Keegan Bradley | -1.69 | 29 | 1813 |
| Aaron Wise | -0.61 | 112 | 1677 |
| Keith Mitchell | -1.17 | 56 | 1748 |
| Maverick McNealy | -0.41 | 135 | 1652 |
| Harris English | -1.27 | 49 | 1760 |
| Chris Kirk | -1.14 | 59 | 1744 |
| Marc Leishman | -0.37 | 143 | 1646 |
| Brian Harman | -2.14 | 14 | 1871 |
| Harry Hall | -0.33 | 149 | 1642 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -2.28 | 10 | 1888 |
| Patton Kizzire | -0.16 | 165 | 1620 |
| Brooks Koepka | -1.89 | 21 | 1839 |
| Kevin Na | -0.31 | 151 | 1639 |
| Adam Hadwin | -1.11 | 62 | 1741 |
| Russell Knox | 0.42 | 209 | 1547 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -0.96 | 79 | 1721 |
| Gary Woodland | -1.14 | 60 | 1743 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | -0.77 | 99 | 1696 |
| Jason Day | -1.68 | 30 | 1812 |
| Patrick Reed | -1.70 | 28 | 1814 |
| Kevin Streelman | -0.51 | 123 | 1664 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | -0.68 | 108 | 1685 |
| Justin Rose | -1.75 | 26 | 1821 |
| Sebastian Munoz | -0.98 | 75 | 1724 |
| Luke List | -0.91 | 83 | 1714 |
| Cameron Tringale | -0.51 | 125 | 1664 |
| Denny McCarthy | -1.53 | 38 | 1794 |
| Kevin Kisner | 0.70 | 223 | 1511 |
| Joel Dahmen | -0.14 | 169 | 1617 |
| Erik van Rooyen | -0.13 | 170 | 1615 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | -1.22 | 53 | 1754 |
| Taylor Pendrith | -0.83 | 91 | 1705 |
| Thomas Detry | -0.96 | 78 | 1721 |
| Mark Hubbard | -0.73 | 102 | 1693 |
| Sepp Straka | -1.43 | 43 | 1781 |
| Matt Kuchar | -1.39 | 44 | 1775 |
| Charles Howell III | -1.57 | 35 | 1799 |
| Scott Stallings | -0.43 | 133 | 1654 |
| Doug Ghim | -0.83 | 92 | 1705 |
| Davis Riley | -0.49 | 128 | 1662 |
| Pat Perez | -0.30 | 153 | 1637 |
| Si Woo Kim | -1.19 | 55 | 1750 |
| Aaron Rai | -1.10 | 64 | 1738 |
| Troy Merritt | -0.05 | 176 | 1605 |
| Sahith Theegala | -1.83 | 22 | 1831 |
| Erik Barnes | 0.01 | 178 | 1598 |
| Cameron Davis | -1.10 | 63 | 1739 |
| Lanto Griffin | -0.02 | 177 | 1603 |
| Martin Laird | -0.16 | 167 | 1619 |
| Austin Eckroat | -0.71 | 104 | 1690 |
| Bernd Wiesberger | 0.60 | 217 | 1523 |
| Matt Jones | 0.07 | 186 | 1591 |
| Brendan Steele | -1.12 | 61 | 1741 |
| Stewart Cink | -0.28 | 156 | 1635 |
| C.T. Pan | 0.11 | 188 | 1585 |
| Brian Stuard | 1.32 | 249 | 1433 |
| Alex Smalley | -0.83 | 93 | 1705 |
| Carlos Ortiz | -0.83 | 94 | 1704 |
| Taylor Moore | -0.45 | 131 | 1656 |
| Dylan Frittelli | 1.41 | 251 | 1421 |
| Zach Johnson | -0.27 | 157 | 1634 |
| Hank Lebioda | 0.84 | 230 | 1493 |
| Adam Long | -0.29 | 154 | 1636 |
| Ryan Moore | -0.40 | 138 | 1650 |
| Brendon Todd | -1.02 | 70 | 1729 |
| Dylan Wu | -0.69 | 106 | 1687 |
| Doc Redman | 0.39 | 207 | 1550 |
| Brice Garnett | 0.22 | 192 | 1571 |
| Ryan Armour | 0.60 | 216 | 1523 |
| Michael Thompson | -0.50 | 126 | 1663 |
| Matthew NeSmith | -0.42 | 134 | 1653 |
| Rickie Fowler | -1.99 | 19 | 1852 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 1.20 | 244 | 1448 |
| Lucas Glover | -0.93 | 80 | 1717 |
| Nick Taylor | -1.02 | 71 | 1729 |
| Danny Willett | -0.10 | 173 | 1613 |
| Patrick Rodgers | -0.87 | 87 | 1710 |
| Adam Svensson | -1.23 | 51 | 1756 |
| Beau Hossler | -1.27 | 48 | 1761 |
| Branden Grace | -1.52 | 41 | 1792 |
| Matthias Schwab | 0.69 | 221 | 1512 |
| Sam Ryder | -1.00 | 73 | 1727 |
| J.J. Spaun | -1.23 | 52 | 1755 |
| Nick Hardy | -0.69 | 107 | 1686 |
| Kramer Hickok | 0.09 | 187 | 1588 |
| Francesco Molinari | -0.06 | 174 | 1607 |
| Wade Ormsby | 1.46 | 254 | 1415 |
| Thomas Pieters | -0.52 | 121 | 1666 |
| Andrew Putnam | -1.53 | 39 | 1794 |
| Lucas Herbert | -0.50 | 127 | 1662 |
| Lee Westwood | -0.38 | 139 | 1648 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -1.04 | 69 | 1732 |
| Akshay Bhatia | -0.77 | 98 | 1698 |
| Ryan Palmer | -0.59 | 116 | 1674 |
| Greyson Sigg | -0.55 | 118 | 1669 |
| Charley Hoffman | 0.05 | 182 | 1593 |
| Tyler Duncan | -0.41 | 136 | 1651 |
| Harry Higgs | 1.04 | 238 | 1467 |
| Matthew Wolff | -1.20 | 54 | 1751 |
| David Lipsky | -0.16 | 166 | 1620 |
| Austin Smotherman | -0.19 | 162 | 1623 |
| Robert Streb | 0.43 | 212 | 1545 |
| Chez Reavie | -0.32 | 150 | 1640 |
| Hudson Swafford | 1.41 | 252 | 1421 |
| Luke Donald | -0.35 | 146 | 1643 |
| Tom Kim | -2.01 | 17 | 1854 |
| Peter Malnati | 0.03 | 180 | 1595 |
| Vince Whaley | -0.54 | 119 | 1668 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 0.48 | 215 | 1539 |
| Danny Lee | -0.35 | 145 | 1643 |
| Wyndham Clark | -2.31 | 9 | 1893 |
| Jonathan Byrd | 0.75 | 226 | 1505 |
| Lee Hodges | -0.73 | 103 | 1692 |
| Matt Wallace | -0.29 | 155 | 1636 |
| Trey Mullinax | 0.06 | 183 | 1592 |
| Byeong Hun An | -0.97 | 77 | 1722 |
| Garrick Higgo | -0.62 | 111 | 1678 |
| Nate Lashley | -0.89 | 85 | 1712 |
| Kevin Tway | 0.17 | 190 | 1577 |
| James Hahn | 0.05 | 181 | 1594 |
| Jason Dufner | 0.36 | 203 | 1554 |
| J.T. Poston | -1.64 | 32 | 1808 |
| Justin Suh | -1.15 | 58 | 1745 |
| Cameron Champ | -0.22 | 159 | 1628 |
| Davis Thompson | -1.02 | 72 | 1728 |
| Padraig Harrington | -0.74 | 101 | 1693 |
| Henrik Norlander | 0.24 | 195 | 1569 |
| Scott Piercy | -0.51 | 124 | 1664 |
| Kevin Chappell | 0.39 | 205 | 1550 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | -0.33 | 148 | 1642 |
| Camilo Villegas | 0.30 | 198 | 1561 |
| Peter Uihlein | -1.24 | 50 | 1757 |
| Sean O'Hair | 0.61 | 218 | 1523 |
| Bill Haas | 0.33 | 201 | 1558 |
| Hayden Buckley | -0.55 | 117 | 1669 |
| Jimmy Walker | 0.31 | 199 | 1560 |
| Phil Mickelson | 0.07 | 185 | 1591 |
| Joseph Bramlett | -0.80 | 95 | 1701 |
| Nick Watney | 1.93 | 263 | 1355 |
| Scott Brown | 1.16 | 243 | 1453 |
| Martin Kaymer | -0.06 | 175 | 1606 |
| Graeme McDowell | 0.32 | 200 | 1559 |
| Adam Schenk | -1.06 | 66 | 1734 |
| Cameron Percy | 0.47 | 213 | 1540 |
| Stephan Jaeger | -1.30 | 47 | 1764 |
| Will Gordon | -0.17 | 164 | 1621 |
| Ben Martin | -0.11 | 172 | 1614 |
| Aaron Baddeley | -0.61 | 113 | 1676 |
| Charl Schwartzel | -0.18 | 163 | 1622 |
| Chris Stroud | 0.39 | 206 | 1550 |
| Kyle Stanley | 1.79 | 261 | 1373 |
| Ben Taylor | 0.68 | 220 | 1513 |
| Seung-yul Noh | 0.23 | 194 | 1571 |
| MJ Daffue | 0.06 | 184 | 1592 |
| Jim Herman | 1.64 | 257 | 1392 |
| William McGirt | 0.70 | 222 | 1511 |
| David Lingmerth | 0.48 | 214 | 1539 |
| Andrew Novak | -0.20 | 160 | 1625 |
| Richy Werenski | 0.66 | 219 | 1516 |
| Robby Shelton | -0.25 | 158 | 1631 |
| Wesley Bryan | 1.45 | 253 | 1416 |
| Brandon Wu | -0.80 | 96 | 1700 |
| Chad Ramey | -0.40 | 137 | 1650 |
| Henrik Stenson | -0.66 | 110 | 1684 |
| Shaun Norris | 1.54 | 256 | 1404 |
| Scott Harrington | 0.90 | 231 | 1485 |
| Sung Kang | 1.13 | 241 | 1457 |
| Michael Gligic | 1.39 | 250 | 1424 |
| Max McGreevy | 1.13 | 242 | 1456 |
| Ryan Brehm | 1.10 | 240 | 1461 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 5.55 | 267 | 896 |
| Chesson Hadley | -0.85 | 90 | 1707 |
| Justin Lower | -0.34 | 147 | 1643 |
| D.J. Trahan | 1.29 | 247 | 1437 |
| Austin Cook | 0.40 | 208 | 1549 |
| Andrew Landry | 1.09 | 239 | 1461 |
| Brian Gay | 1.47 | 255 | 1413 |
| Callum Tarren | -0.61 | 114 | 1676 |
| Matthias Schmid | 1.26 | 245 | 1440 |
| Kevin Yu | -0.20 | 161 | 1624 |
| Kelly Kraft | -0.15 | 168 | 1619 |
| Ryan Fox | -1.17 | 57 | 1747 |
| Chase Koepka | 0.78 | 228 | 1500 |
| Ricky Barnes | 1.31 | 248 | 1434 |
| J.B. Holmes | 1.72 | 258 | 1382 |
| Martin Trainer | 0.96 | 234 | 1477 |
| Min Woo Lee | -1.71 | 27 | 1816 |
| Derek Ernst | 1.74 | 259 | 1379 |
| Greg Chalmers | 1.77 | 260 | 1375 |
| Kyle Westmoreland | 1.04 | 237 | 1467 |
| Zac Blair | -0.38 | 140 | 1647 |
| Brent Grant | 0.83 | 229 | 1495 |
| Arjun Atwal | 2.60 | 266 | 1270 |
| Cole Hammer | 0.74 | 225 | 1506 |
| Jonas Blixt | 1.27 | 246 | 1439 |
| D.A. Points | 1.87 | 262 | 1362 |
| Michael Kim | -0.92 | 81 | 1717 |
| Laurie Canter | -0.30 | 152 | 1637 |
| Grayson Murray | 0.95 | 233 | 1480 |
| Peter Kuest | -0.44 | 132 | 1655 |
| Tommy Gainey | 2.10 | 264 | 1334 |
| Cody Gribble | 0.42 | 210 | 1547 |
| Carson Young | -0.46 | 130 | 1658 |
| Dean Burmester | -1.07 | 65 | 1736 |
| Sam Horsfield | 0.27 | 196 | 1565 |
| James Piot | 0.94 | 232 | 1480 |
| Richard Bland | -0.37 | 142 | 1646 |
| Alex Noren | -1.04 | 67 | 1732 |
| Carl Yuan | 0.12 | 189 | 1584 |
| Seonghyeon Kim | -0.51 | 122 | 1664 |
| Zecheng Dou | 0.30 | 197 | 1562 |
| Sam Stevens | -0.71 | 105 | 1689 |
| Augusto Nunez | 0.23 | 193 | 1571 |
| Paul Haley | 0.42 | 211 | 1547 |
| Kevin Roy | 0.20 | 191 | 1574 |
| Vincent Norrman | -0.53 | 120 | 1667 |
| Ben Griffin | -0.68 | 109 | 1685 |
| Trevor Cone | 0.99 | 235 | 1474 |
| Eric Cole | -1.82 | 23 | 1830 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0.34 | 202 | 1556 |
| Tano Goya | 0.02 | 179 | 1597 |
| Brandon Matthews | 2.51 | 265 | 1282 |
| Harrison Endycott | 0.38 | 204 | 1552 |
| Anders Albertson | 0.72 | 224 | 1508 |
| Trevor Werbylo | 0.77 | 227 | 1502 |
| Tyson Alexander | 1.01 | 236 | 1471 |
| Adrian Meronk | -0.79 | 97 | 1700 |
