Matchups in PGA are some of the best bets you can make because they offer lines on both sides, which allows you to get better odds. Golf is highly volatile, which makes it so any golfer can finish at the top or bottom in any given week, so the win probabilities can be difficult to estimate without digging into the data. Having a PGA Power Rankings and Matchups tool is pivotal in winning — whether it’s DFS or betting. ELO ratings are designed to give you the probability in a head-to-head matchup, so they can help us figure out the probability and which bets are likely to be profitable.
Our PGA power rankings are determined by the past year’s performance, weighting more recent tournaments more heavily. This is based on the formula we use for our PGA DFS Projections. These help give us an idea of how many strokes above or below an average field each golfer will score. For this week’s tournament, sports book odds and course fit are incorporated into the ELO rating. S/R_Proj represents the total number of strokes that golfer is expected to above or below average for the week. Like a golf score the lower the better.
To calculate the odds of a head to head matchup, you can use the formula 1/(1+10^((RatingA-RatingB)/400) or you can use a free calculator like this.
This Week's Field
Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
---|---|---|---|
Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
Wyndham Clark | -1.40 | 28 | 1776 |
Joel Dahmen | -0.62 | 98 | 1678 |
Taylor Pendrith | -0.80 | 88 | 1701 |
Thomas Detry | -0.94 | 34 | 1719 |
Ben Martin | -0.42 | 118 | 1653 |
Matt Wallace | -0.33 | 145 | 1642 |
Erik Van Rooyen | -0.17 | 162 | 1621 |
Patrick Rodgers | -0.74 | 86 | 1693 |
Emiliano Grillo | -0.66 | 92 | 1683 |
Nicolai Hojgaard | -0.33 | 1,000 | 1641 |
Kramer Hickok | -0.26 | 138 | 1632 |
Chad Ramey | -0.01 | 180 | 1601 |
Tyler Duncan | -0.32 | 117 | 1640 |
Adam Long | -0.20 | 144 | 1625 |
Cameron Percy | 0.02 | 151 | 1597 |
Fabrizio Zanotti | -0.09 | 1,000 | 1611 |
Michael Kim | -0.19 | 184 | 1623 |
Nick Hardy | -0.36 | 136 | 1645 |
Sam Stevens | -0.32 | 154 | 1640 |
Mark Hubbard | -0.19 | 131 | 1624 |
Andrew Novak | 0.12 | 189 | 1584 |
Ryan Gerard | 0.00 | 1,000 | 1600 |
Dylan Wu | -0.07 | 159 | 1608 |
MJ Daffue | -0.20 | 200 | 1624 |
Scott Piercy | -0.17 | 135 | 1620 |
Charley Hoffman | 0.08 | 181 | 1590 |
Chesson Hadley | -0.18 | 127 | 1622 |
Harry Hall | -0.09 | 172 | 1611 |
Aaron Baddeley | 0.05 | 125 | 1593 |
Harry Higgs | 0.37 | 203 | 1553 |
Cody Gribble | 0.23 | 168 | 1570 |
Vincent Norrman | 0.22 | 192 | 1571 |
Doug Ghim | 0.07 | 166 | 1591 |
Justin Lower | -0.10 | 140 | 1612 |
Henrik Norlander | 0.15 | 175 | 1580 |
Hank Lebioda | 0.16 | 183 | 1579 |
Matthias Schwab | 0.08 | 169 | 1589 |
Kevin Tway | -0.12 | 146 | 1615 |
Augusto Nunez | 0.05 | 219 | 1593 |
Carlos Franco | 2.10 | 1333 | |
Sean O'Hair | 0.44 | 206 | 1543 |
Santiago Tarrio | 0.74 | 1506 | |
Tano Goya | 0.13 | 187 | 1583 |
Brice Garnett | 0.46 | 198 | 1541 |
Paul Haley | 0.55 | 197 | 1530 |
Seung-Yul Noh | 0.52 | 204 | 1534 |
Kevin Chappell | 0.47 | 218 | 1539 |
Russell Knox | 0.35 | 176 | 1556 |
Harrison Endycott | 0.49 | 188 | 1537 |
Chris Stroud | 0.29 | 174 | 1563 |
Kevin Roy | 0.28 | 209 | 1564 |
Matthias Schmid | 0.53 | 254 | 1532 |
Carson Young | 0.64 | 228 | 1519 |
Jason Dufner | 0.74 | 231 | 1506 |
Jonas Blixt | 1.19 | 255 | 1449 |
Ryan Moore | 0.29 | 161 | 1563 |
Austin Eckroat | 0.13 | 186 | 1583 |
Brent Grant | 0.48 | 246 | 1539 |
Austin Cook | 0.66 | 213 | 1516 |
Scott Brown | 1.02 | 240 | 1470 |
Angel Hidalgo | 1.30 | 1,000 | 1435 |
Richy Werenski | 0.81 | 243 | 1497 |
Rafael Campos | 1.27 | 1439 | |
Sang-Moon Bae | 1.38 | 1424 | |
Tyson Alexander | 0.70 | 221 | 1511 |
Michael Gligic | 0.59 | 227 | 1525 |
Trevor Werbylo | 0.58 | 222 | 1526 |
Erik Compton | 1.17 | 1,000 | 1452 |
Scott Harrington | 0.60 | 233 | 1524 |
Kelly Kraft | 0.80 | 216 | 1498 |
Grayson Murray | 0.73 | 250 | 1507 |
William McGirt | 0.85 | 201 | 1492 |
Bill Haas | 0.66 | 214 | 1516 |
Jonathan Byrd | 0.75 | 225 | 1504 |
Kyle Westmoreland | 0.66 | 205 | 1515 |
Geoff Ogilvy | 1.37 | 1,000 | 1426 |
Sung Kang | 1.36 | 261 | 1427 |
Fabian Gomez | 0.82 | 249 | 1496 |
Wesley Bryan | 1.16 | 259 | 1453 |
Ryan Brehm | 1.09 | 263 | 1462 |
Brian Stuard | 1.01 | 236 | 1472 |
Brandon Matthews | 0.88 | 266 | 1488 |
Trevor Cone | 0.88 | 242 | 1488 |
Greg Chalmers | 1.47 | 258 | 1414 |
Thomas Longbella | 2.08 | 1,000 | 1337 |
D.J. Trahan | 1.52 | 1407 | |
Derek Ernst | 1.40 | 1422 | |
Martin Trainer | 0.98 | 237 | 1476 |
Max McGreevy | 1.53 | 267 | 1406 |
Ricky Barnes | 1.52 | 256 | 1408 |
David Hearn | 1.65 | 1391 | |
Justin Hicks | 2.31 | 1,000 | 1307 |
Ben Crane | 1.85 | 1,000 | 1365 |
George McNeill | 1.77 | 1375 | |
Chris Nido | 2.48 | 1286 | |
Camilo Villegas | 1.34 | 251 | 1430 |
Dominic Bozzelli | 1.75 | 1378 | |
Tommy Gainey | 2.56 | 269 | 1275 |
Justin Kim | 2.12 | 1,000 | 1331 |
J.J. Henry | 1.87 | 1363 | |
Richard S Johnson | 1.91 | 1357 | |
Stephen Stallings Jr. | 1.98 | 1349 | |
Bo Van Pelt | 2.22 | 253 | 1319 |
Arjun Atwal | 2.33 | 270 | 1304 |
Cougar Collins | 2.31 | 1,000 | 1307 |
Ted Potter Jr. | 1.34 | 1430 | |
Robert Garrigus | 2.12 | 268 | 1331 |
Kevin Stadler | 2.82 | 1242 | |
D.A. Points | 2.59 | 271 | 1271 |
Kyle Maxwell | 1.63 | 1,000 | 1393 |
Juan Jose Guerra | 2.31 | 1307 | |
Rhadames Pena | 2.87 | 1,000 | 1236 |
Brian Davis | 2.67 | 1261 | |
Omar Uresti | 2.31 | 1307 | |
John Rollins | 2.34 | 1303 | |
Hiram Silfa | 2.80 | 1245 | |
Daniel Chopra | 2.68 | 1259 | |
Jeff Overton | 1.98 | 1,000 | 1349 |
Matt Every | 2.31 | 1307 | |
Akshay Bhatia | -0.20 | 1624 |
Power Rankings
Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
---|---|---|---|
Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
Jon Rahm | -2.98 | 2 | 1977 |
Justin Thomas | -2.16 | 13 | 1873 |
Patrick Cantlay | -2.77 | 4 | 1950 |
Cameron Smith | -2.45 | 8 | 1910 |
Daniel Berger | -1.51 | 32 | 1790 |
Viktor Hovland | -2.32 | 9 | 1894 |
Rory McIlroy | -2.85 | 3 | 1960 |
Scottie Scheffler | -3.21 | 1 | 2006 |
Dustin Johnson | -1.67 | 25 | 1811 |
Shane Lowry | -1.69 | 24 | 1814 |
Sam Burns | -1.59 | 27 | 1801 |
Xander Schauffele | -2.50 | 7 | 1917 |
Tyrrell Hatton | -2.22 | 11 | 1881 |
Russell Henley | -1.39 | 39 | 1776 |
Collin Morikawa | -2.14 | 14 | 1871 |
Hideki Matsuyama | -1.57 | 29 | 1798 |
Sungjae Im | -2.20 | 12 | 1878 |
Louis Oosthuizen | -0.85 | 81 | 1707 |
Matt Fitzpatrick | -1.80 | 22 | 1827 |
Cameron Young | -1.97 | 18 | 1849 |
Joaquin Niemann | -2.11 | 15 | 1866 |
Taylor Montgomery | -1.76 | 23 | 1823 |
Sergio Garcia | -1.32 | 45 | 1766 |
Corey Conners | -1.40 | 38 | 1777 |
Billy Horschel | -0.93 | 74 | 1717 |
Seamus Power | -1.19 | 55 | 1750 |
Alex Noren | -1.09 | 62 | 1738 |
Will Zalatoris | -2.04 | 17 | 1859 |
Abraham Ancer | -1.08 | 65 | 1737 |
Talor Gooch | -1.26 | 48 | 1759 |
Max Homa | -2.59 | 6 | 1928 |
Ian Poulter | -0.77 | 90 | 1698 |
Webb Simpson | -0.27 | 139 | 1634 |
Adam Scott | -1.15 | 56 | 1745 |
Tony Finau | -2.63 | 5 | 1933 |
Harold Varner III | -1.24 | 52 | 1757 |
Tom Hoge | -1.66 | 26 | 1810 |
Jason Kokrak | -0.81 | 87 | 1702 |
Jordan Spieth | -1.86 | 20 | 1835 |
Keegan Bradley | -1.55 | 31 | 1796 |
Aaron Wise | -1.12 | 59 | 1742 |
Keith Mitchell | -1.83 | 21 | 1832 |
Maverick McNealy | -1.25 | 50 | 1758 |
Harris English | -0.54 | 111 | 1668 |
Chris Kirk | -1.35 | 42 | 1771 |
Marc Leishman | -0.71 | 97 | 1689 |
Brian Harman | -1.30 | 46 | 1764 |
Harry Hall | 0.06 | 172 | 1591 |
Tommy Fleetwood | -1.95 | 19 | 1847 |
Patton Kizzire | -0.50 | 113 | 1663 |
Brooks Koepka | -0.43 | 120 | 1654 |
Kevin Na | -0.90 | 77 | 1713 |
Adam Hadwin | -1.34 | 43 | 1769 |
Russell Knox | 0.13 | 176 | 1584 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -0.98 | 70 | 1723 |
Gary Woodland | -0.72 | 94 | 1690 |
Mackenzie Hughes | -0.49 | 114 | 1662 |
Jason Day | -2.23 | 10 | 1881 |
Patrick Reed | -0.65 | 102 | 1682 |
Kevin Streelman | -0.15 | 149 | 1619 |
Mito Pereira | -1.36 | 40 | 1772 |
Jhonattan Vegas | -0.83 | 84 | 1705 |
Justin Rose | -1.36 | 41 | 1771 |
Sebastian Munoz | -0.84 | 83 | 1706 |
Luke List | -0.24 | 142 | 1630 |
Cameron Tringale | -0.57 | 110 | 1672 |
Denny McCarthy | -1.23 | 53 | 1756 |
Kevin Kisner | 0.06 | 170 | 1592 |
Joel Dahmen | -0.70 | 98 | 1688 |
Erik van Rooyen | -0.02 | 162 | 1602 |
Kyoung-Hoon Lee | -1.09 | 64 | 1737 |
Taylor Pendrith | -0.80 | 88 | 1700 |
Thomas Detry | -1.42 | 34 | 1779 |
Mark Hubbard | -0.36 | 131 | 1645 |
Sepp Straka | -0.88 | 80 | 1710 |
Matt Kuchar | -1.32 | 44 | 1767 |
Charles Howell III | -0.93 | 75 | 1717 |
Scott Stallings | -0.90 | 76 | 1713 |
Doug Ghim | 0.00 | 166 | 1599 |
Davis Riley | -0.69 | 100 | 1686 |
Pat Perez | -1.07 | 67 | 1735 |
Si Woo Kim | -1.41 | 35 | 1778 |
Aaron Rai | -0.83 | 85 | 1705 |
Troy Merritt | -0.01 | 163 | 1601 |
Sahith Theegala | -1.43 | 33 | 1780 |
Erik Barnes | 0.01 | 167 | 1598 |
Cameron Davis | -0.97 | 71 | 1722 |
Lanto Griffin | -0.38 | 128 | 1648 |
Martin Laird | -0.16 | 148 | 1619 |
Austin Eckroat | 0.24 | 186 | 1570 |
Matt Jones | -0.42 | 122 | 1652 |
Brendan Steele | -0.88 | 79 | 1711 |
Stewart Cink | -0.11 | 152 | 1613 |
C.T. Pan | 0.31 | 190 | 1560 |
Brian Stuard | 0.98 | 236 | 1476 |
Alex Smalley | -0.71 | 95 | 1689 |
Carlos Ortiz | 0.53 | 210 | 1532 |
Taylor Moore | -1.41 | 36 | 1778 |
Dylan Frittelli | -0.08 | 157 | 1609 |
Zach Johnson | -0.11 | 153 | 1613 |
Hank Lebioda | 0.20 | 183 | 1574 |
Adam Long | -0.20 | 144 | 1624 |
Ryan Moore | -0.02 | 161 | 1602 |
Anirban Lahiri | -0.95 | 73 | 1720 |
Brendon Todd | -1.26 | 49 | 1759 |
Dylan Wu | -0.05 | 159 | 1606 |
Doc Redman | 0.17 | 178 | 1578 |
Brice Garnett | 0.43 | 198 | 1545 |
Ryan Armour | 0.18 | 182 | 1577 |
Michael Thompson | -0.29 | 137 | 1636 |
Matthew NeSmith | -0.36 | 130 | 1645 |
Rickie Fowler | -1.56 | 30 | 1797 |
Rory Sabbatini | 0.67 | 223 | 1515 |
Lucas Glover | -0.09 | 155 | 1611 |
Nick Taylor | -0.97 | 72 | 1722 |
Danny Willett | -1.13 | 58 | 1743 |
Patrick Rodgers | -0.83 | 86 | 1704 |
Adam Svensson | -1.11 | 60 | 1740 |
Beau Hossler | -0.58 | 109 | 1673 |
Branden Grace | -0.64 | 105 | 1681 |
Matthias Schwab | 0.04 | 169 | 1594 |
Sam Ryder | -1.21 | 54 | 1752 |
J.J. Spaun | -1.06 | 68 | 1734 |
Nick Hardy | -0.31 | 136 | 1639 |
Kramer Hickok | -0.28 | 138 | 1635 |
Francesco Molinari | -0.32 | 134 | 1640 |
Andrew Putnam | -1.14 | 57 | 1743 |
Lucas Herbert | -0.20 | 143 | 1625 |
Lee Westwood | 0.06 | 171 | 1592 |
Emiliano Grillo | -0.75 | 92 | 1694 |
Ryan Palmer | -0.38 | 129 | 1647 |
Greyson Sigg | -0.33 | 132 | 1642 |
Charley Hoffman | 0.18 | 181 | 1577 |
Tyler Duncan | -0.48 | 117 | 1661 |
Chase Seiffert | 0.39 | 196 | 1551 |
Harry Higgs | 0.48 | 203 | 1539 |
Matthew Wolff | 1.13 | 245 | 1456 |
David Lipsky | -0.40 | 123 | 1651 |
Austin Smotherman | 0.15 | 177 | 1581 |
Robert Streb | 0.50 | 207 | 1536 |
Chez Reavie | 0.50 | 208 | 1536 |
Hudson Swafford | -0.18 | 147 | 1622 |
John Huh | -0.01 | 164 | 1600 |
Luke Donald | -0.05 | 160 | 1606 |
Tom Kim | -2.06 | 16 | 1861 |
Peter Malnati | -0.39 | 124 | 1649 |
Vince Whaley | -0.06 | 158 | 1608 |
Brandt Snedeker | 0.39 | 195 | 1551 |
Danny Lee | -0.01 | 165 | 1600 |
Wyndham Clark | -1.59 | 28 | 1800 |
Jonathan Byrd | 0.71 | 225 | 1509 |
Lee Hodges | -0.46 | 119 | 1658 |
Matt Wallace | -0.19 | 145 | 1623 |
Trey Mullinax | -0.39 | 126 | 1649 |
Byeong Hun An | -0.68 | 101 | 1686 |
Garrick Higgo | -0.25 | 141 | 1631 |
Nate Lashley | -0.42 | 121 | 1653 |
Kevin Tway | -0.18 | 146 | 1622 |
James Hahn | 0.23 | 185 | 1571 |
Robert Garrigus | 2.09 | 268 | 1335 |
Roger Sloan | 0.53 | 211 | 1532 |
Jason Dufner | 0.86 | 231 | 1491 |
J.T. Poston | -1.02 | 69 | 1728 |
Curtis Thompson | 1.01 | 238 | 1472 |
Justin Suh | -1.26 | 47 | 1759 |
Cameron Champ | 0.34 | 191 | 1557 |
Davis Thompson | -0.72 | 93 | 1691 |
Padraig Harrington | 0.36 | 194 | 1553 |
Henrik Norlander | 0.12 | 175 | 1584 |
Scott Piercy | -0.31 | 135 | 1639 |
Kevin Chappell | 0.58 | 218 | 1526 |
Satoshi Kodaira | -0.09 | 156 | 1611 |
Camilo Villegas | 1.26 | 251 | 1440 |
Bo Hoag | 0.56 | 215 | 1529 |
Vaughn Taylor | 0.43 | 199 | 1545 |
Sean O'Hair | 0.48 | 206 | 1538 |
Bill Haas | 0.55 | 214 | 1529 |
Hayden Buckley | -0.61 | 106 | 1677 |
Jimmy Walker | 0.67 | 224 | 1514 |
Joseph Bramlett | -0.49 | 115 | 1661 |
Nick Watney | 1.54 | 260 | 1405 |
Scott Brown | 1.02 | 240 | 1470 |
Adam Schenk | -0.69 | 99 | 1687 |
Cameron Percy | -0.13 | 151 | 1616 |
Bo Van Pelt | 1.31 | 253 | 1433 |
Stephan Jaeger | -1.08 | 66 | 1737 |
Will Gordon | -0.71 | 96 | 1689 |
Ben Martin | -0.48 | 118 | 1661 |
Aaron Baddeley | -0.39 | 125 | 1649 |
Charl Schwartzel | -0.49 | 116 | 1661 |
Chris Stroud | 0.11 | 174 | 1585 |
Kyle Stanley | 1.61 | 265 | 1396 |
Ben Taylor | -0.58 | 108 | 1673 |
Seung-yul Noh | 0.48 | 204 | 1539 |
MJ Daffue | 0.45 | 200 | 1542 |
Ben Kohles | 0.46 | 202 | 1541 |
Jim Herman | 0.95 | 234 | 1479 |
William McGirt | 0.46 | 201 | 1542 |
David Lingmerth | -0.33 | 133 | 1641 |
Andrew Novak | 0.30 | 189 | 1562 |
Richy Werenski | 1.07 | 243 | 1464 |
Brandon Hagy | 0.96 | 235 | 1479 |
Robby Shelton | -0.65 | 103 | 1682 |
Wesley Bryan | 1.51 | 259 | 1408 |
Paul Barjon | 0.90 | 232 | 1486 |
Brandon Wu | -0.79 | 89 | 1699 |
Chad Ramey | 0.18 | 180 | 1577 |
Henrik Stenson | -0.51 | 112 | 1664 |
Scott Harrington | 0.92 | 233 | 1482 |
Sung Kang | 1.55 | 261 | 1403 |
Michael Gligic | 0.75 | 227 | 1505 |
Scott Gutschewski | 0.80 | 230 | 1498 |
Max McGreevy | 1.80 | 267 | 1372 |
Jim Knous | 1.01 | 239 | 1471 |
Ryan Brehm | 1.58 | 263 | 1399 |
Kurt Kitayama | -1.24 | 51 | 1757 |
Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 0.18 | 179 | 1577 |
Chesson Hadley | -0.39 | 127 | 1649 |
Seth Reeves | 1.03 | 241 | 1469 |
Justin Lower | -0.26 | 140 | 1633 |
Austin Cook | 0.55 | 213 | 1530 |
Jared Wolfe | 0.36 | 193 | 1554 |
Andrew Landry | 1.47 | 257 | 1414 |
Brian Gay | 1.19 | 248 | 1449 |
Callum Tarren | 0.09 | 173 | 1588 |
Matthias Schmid | 1.37 | 254 | 1426 |
Kevin Yu | -0.75 | 91 | 1694 |
Dawie van der Walt | 1.26 | 252 | 1440 |
Kelly Kraft | 0.56 | 216 | 1529 |
Brett Drewitt | 1.12 | 244 | 1458 |
Ricky Barnes | 1.41 | 256 | 1421 |
Fabian Gomez | 1.22 | 249 | 1445 |
Martin Trainer | 1.01 | 237 | 1472 |
Min Woo Lee | -0.61 | 107 | 1677 |
Greg Chalmers | 1.50 | 258 | 1409 |
David Skinns | 0.78 | 229 | 1500 |
Kyle Westmoreland | 0.48 | 205 | 1539 |
Zac Blair | -0.15 | 150 | 1619 |
Joshua Creel | 1.61 | 264 | 1396 |
Brent Grant | 1.13 | 246 | 1456 |
Arjun Atwal | 2.49 | 270 | 1284 |
Cole Hammer | 0.60 | 220 | 1523 |
Jonas Blixt | 1.39 | 255 | 1423 |
D.A. Points | 2.58 | 271 | 1273 |
Michael Kim | 0.21 | 184 | 1573 |
Grayson Murray | 1.25 | 250 | 1442 |
Tommy Gainey | 2.13 | 269 | 1329 |
Cody Gribble | 0.04 | 168 | 1595 |
Carson Young | 0.76 | 228 | 1503 |
Dean Burmester | -0.84 | 82 | 1706 |
Chris Gotterup | -0.89 | 78 | 1713 |
Alex Noren | -1.09 | 62 | 1738 |
Carl Yuan | 0.54 | 212 | 1531 |
Seonghyeon Kim | -0.65 | 104 | 1681 |
Zecheng Dou | 1.17 | 247 | 1451 |
Sam Stevens | -0.10 | 154 | 1612 |
Augusto Nunez | 0.59 | 219 | 1525 |
Paul Haley | 0.43 | 197 | 1545 |
Kevin Roy | 0.51 | 209 | 1535 |
Vincent Norrman | 0.35 | 192 | 1555 |
Philip Knowles | 1.57 | 262 | 1401 |
Ben Griffin | -1.40 | 37 | 1777 |
Trevor Cone | 1.04 | 242 | 1468 |
Eric Cole | -1.10 | 61 | 1739 |
Nicolas Echavarria | 0.56 | 217 | 1528 |
Tano Goya | 0.25 | 187 | 1567 |
Brandon Matthews | 1.75 | 266 | 1377 |
Harrison Endycott | 0.26 | 188 | 1566 |
Anders Albertson | 0.72 | 226 | 1508 |
Trevor Werbylo | 0.65 | 222 | 1517 |
Tyson Alexander | 0.61 | 221 | 1522 |