Matchups in PGA are some of the best bets you can make because they offer lines on both sides, which allows you to get better odds. Golf is highly volatile, which makes it so any golfer can finish at the top or bottom in any given week, so the win probabilities can be difficult to estimate without digging into the data. Having a PGA Power Rankings and Matchups tool is pivotal in winning — whether it’s DFS or betting. ELO ratings are designed to give you the probability in a head-to-head matchup, so they can help us figure out the probability and which bets are likely to be profitable.
Our PGA power rankings are determined by the past year’s performance, weighting more recent tournaments more heavily. This is based on the formula we use for our PGA DFS Projections. These help give us an idea of how many strokes above or below an average field each golfer will score. For this week’s tournament, sports book odds and course fit are incorporated into the ELO rating. S/R_Proj represents the total number of strokes that golfer is expected to above or below average for the week. Like a golf score the lower the better.
To calculate the odds of a head to head matchup, you can use the formula 1/(1+10^((RatingA-RatingB)/400) or you can use a free calculator like this.
This Week's Field
Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
---|---|---|---|
Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
Scottie Scheffler | -2.92 | 1 | 1969 |
Rory McIlroy | -2.43 | 2 | 1908 |
Xander Schauffele | -2.27 | 4 | 1887 |
Justin Thomas | -2.00 | 18 | 1853 |
Patrick Cantlay | -2.14 | 8 | 1870 |
Viktor Hovland | -2.16 | 5 | 1874 |
Will Zalatoris | -1.89 | 30 | 1839 |
Hideki Matsuyama | -1.76 | 40 | 1823 |
Wyndham Clark | -1.91 | 10 | 1841 |
Max Homa | -2.00 | 14 | 1853 |
Jordan Spieth | -1.97 | 15 | 1850 |
Collin Morikawa | -2.07 | 9 | 1862 |
Ludvig Aberg | -1.93 | 1,000 | 1843 |
Sam Burns | -1.85 | 13 | 1834 |
Shane Lowry | -1.86 | 28 | 1835 |
Cameron Young | -1.70 | 29 | 1815 |
Jason Day | -1.68 | 27 | 1813 |
Tommy Fleetwood | -1.84 | 19 | 1832 |
Sahith Theegala | -1.67 | 20 | 1811 |
Russell Henley | -1.92 | 11 | 1842 |
Tony Finau | -1.70 | 24 | 1815 |
Sungjae Im | -1.62 | 35 | 1805 |
Corey Conners | -1.69 | 25 | 1814 |
Matt Fitzpatrick | -1.59 | 31 | 1800 |
Tom Kim | -1.60 | 34 | 1802 |
Byeong Hun An | -1.52 | 32 | 1792 |
Min Woo Lee | -1.74 | 33 | 1819 |
Si Woo Kim | -1.61 | 56 | 1804 |
Brian Harman | -1.76 | 17 | 1822 |
Keegan Bradley | -1.46 | 45 | 1785 |
Harris English | -1.38 | 46 | 1774 |
Tom Hoge | -1.55 | 43 | 1796 |
J.T. Poston | -1.40 | 36 | 1776 |
Eric Cole | -1.51 | 21 | 1791 |
Adam Scott | -1.50 | 22 | 1790 |
Chris Kirk | -1.35 | 58 | 1771 |
Adam Hadwin | -1.43 | 60 | 1780 |
Keith Mitchell | -1.36 | 49 | 1772 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -1.21 | 66 | 1753 |
Emiliano Grillo | -1.39 | 59 | 1775 |
Rickie Fowler | -1.17 | 73 | 1748 |
Erik Van Rooyen | -1.15 | 68 | 1746 |
Alex Noren | -1.29 | 51 | 1763 |
Stephan Jaeger | -1.21 | 57 | 1753 |
Nicolai Hojgaard | -1.19 | 1750 | |
Jake Knapp | -1.12 | 1,000 | 1741 |
Cameron Davis | -1.32 | 1766 | |
Justin Rose | -1.30 | 55 | 1764 |
Denny McCarthy | -1.36 | 44 | 1772 |
Nick Taylor | -1.24 | 65 | 1757 |
Beau Hossler | -1.23 | 41 | 1756 |
Doug Ghim | -1.27 | 62 | 1760 |
Matthieu Pavon | -1.19 | 1,000 | 1750 |
Luke List | -0.92 | 79 | 1716 |
Billy Horschel | -1.10 | 86 | 1738 |
Kurt Kitayama | -0.87 | 82 | 1710 |
Sepp Straka | -1.11 | 75 | 1740 |
Austin Eckroat | -1.24 | 63 | 1756 |
Brendon Todd | -1.33 | 54 | 1769 |
Aaron Rai | -1.38 | 61 | 1774 |
Andrew Novak | -0.85 | 113 | 1708 |
Patrick Rodgers | -0.96 | 81 | 1721 |
Andrew Putnam | -1.29 | 47 | 1763 |
Lucas Glover | -1.19 | 64 | 1750 |
Maverick McNealy | -0.79 | 87 | 1700 |
Akshay Bhatia | -0.98 | 84 | 1724 |
Ryo Hisatsune | -1.07 | 1,000 | 1735 |
Ryan Fox | -1.07 | 67 | 1735 |
Davis Thompson | -1.08 | 50 | 1736 |
Adam Svensson | -0.79 | 85 | 1699 |
Kevin Yu | -0.77 | 131 | 1698 |
Taylor Pendrith | -0.86 | 95 | 1708 |
Taylor Montgomery | -0.91 | 69 | 1715 |
Ben Griffin | -0.95 | 76 | 1720 |
Webb Simpson | -0.72 | 150 | 1691 |
Taylor Moore | -0.75 | 111 | 1695 |
Adam Schenk | -0.88 | 80 | 1711 |
Kyoung-Hoon Lee | -0.88 | 1711 | |
Mark Hubbard | -0.94 | 83 | 1718 |
Chan Kim | -0.80 | 1701 | |
Seamus Power | -0.75 | 1694 | |
Justin Suh | -0.71 | 107 | 1689 |
Thomas Detry | -0.81 | 106 | 1702 |
Nick Dunlap | -0.70 | 1,000 | 1688 |
Mackenzie Hughes | -0.74 | 104 | 1694 |
Chesson Hadley | -0.73 | 72 | 1692 |
Justin Lower | -0.69 | 114 | 1686 |
C.T. Pan | -0.52 | 152 | 1665 |
Garrick Higgo | -0.65 | 109 | 1681 |
Brandon Wu | -0.69 | 110 | 1687 |
Vincent Norrman | -0.58 | 134 | 1673 |
Charley Hoffman | -0.58 | 123 | 1673 |
Robert Macintyre | -0.81 | 117 | 1701 |
Sam Ryder | -0.87 | 77 | 1709 |
Greyson Sigg | -0.79 | 74 | 1699 |
Matt Wallace | -0.61 | 124 | 1677 |
Sami Valimaki | -0.63 | 1679 | |
Carson Young | -0.78 | 97 | 1698 |
Joseph Bramlett | -0.52 | 98 | 1665 |
Ben Silverman | -0.73 | 1,000 | 1692 |
Jimmy Stanger | -0.56 | 1,000 | 1670 |
Matt Kuchar | -0.80 | 105 | 1701 |
Gary Woodland | -0.64 | 96 | 1681 |
Martin Laird | -0.42 | 157 | 1652 |
Nicolas Echavarria | -0.27 | 1634 | |
Lee Hodges | -0.71 | 122 | 1690 |
Michael Kim | -0.60 | 100 | 1675 |
Alex Smalley | -0.53 | 155 | 1667 |
Sam Stevens | -0.45 | 133 | 1656 |
Ben Kohles | -0.61 | 1677 | |
Nick Hardy | -0.47 | 119 | 1659 |
Brice Garnett | -0.19 | 186 | 1624 |
Nate Lashley | -0.62 | 102 | 1678 |
Seonghyeon Kim | -0.42 | 121 | 1653 |
Chad Ramey | -0.48 | 135 | 1660 |
Tyler Duncan | -0.59 | 116 | 1674 |
Aaron Baddeley | -0.54 | 92 | 1668 |
J.J. Spaun | -0.66 | 88 | 1683 |
Scott Stallings | -0.41 | 137 | 1652 |
Steve Stricker | -0.80 | 1700 | |
Peter Malnati | -0.24 | 159 | 1630 |
David Skinns | -0.20 | 1625 | |
Troy Merritt | -0.47 | 156 | 1659 |
Ben Martin | -0.40 | 163 | 1650 |
Matti Schmid | -0.41 | 1,000 | 1651 |
Dylan Wu | -0.43 | 128 | 1654 |
Robby Shelton | -0.38 | 145 | 1648 |
Carl Yuan | -0.01 | 174 | 1601 |
Joel Dahmen | -0.37 | 171 | 1646 |
Grayson Murray | -0.41 | 207 | 1652 |
Davis Riley | -0.08 | 190 | 1610 |
Francesco Molinari | -0.12 | 194 | 1614 |
Matthew NeSmith | -0.35 | 1644 | |
Kevin Streelman | -0.34 | 146 | 1643 |
Harry Hall | -0.27 | 118 | 1633 |
Hayden Buckley | -0.09 | 164 | 1610 |
Ryan Moore | -0.18 | 158 | 1622 |
Zac Blair | -0.39 | 143 | 1648 |
Chez Reavie | -0.09 | 170 | 1611 |
Camilo Villegas | -0.10 | 184 | 1612 |
David Lipsky | -0.12 | 182 | 1615 |
Callum Tarren | 0.07 | 173 | 1590 |
Tyson Alexander | 0.37 | 216 | 1552 |
Ben Taylor | 0.78 | 228 | 1501 |
Power Rankings
Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
---|---|---|---|
Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
Jon Rahm | -2.58 | 3 | 1927 |
Justin Thomas | -1.82 | 18 | 1830 |
Patrick Cantlay | -2.16 | 8 | 1873 |
Cameron Smith | -1.98 | 12 | 1850 |
Viktor Hovland | -2.34 | 5 | 1896 |
Rory McIlroy | -2.64 | 2 | 1934 |
Scottie Scheffler | -3.50 | 1 | 2042 |
Dustin Johnson | -1.45 | 42 | 1783 |
Shane Lowry | -1.65 | 28 | 1809 |
Sam Burns | -1.95 | 13 | 1846 |
Bryson DeChambeau | -1.05 | 71 | 1732 |
Xander Schauffele | -2.37 | 4 | 1899 |
Paul Casey | -1.34 | 48 | 1769 |
Tyrrell Hatton | -2.18 | 6 | 1875 |
Russell Henley | -2.06 | 11 | 1861 |
Collin Morikawa | -2.13 | 9 | 1869 |
Hideki Matsuyama | -1.49 | 40 | 1788 |
Sungjae Im | -1.57 | 35 | 1798 |
Louis Oosthuizen | -0.52 | 120 | 1666 |
Matt Fitzpatrick | -1.61 | 31 | 1804 |
Cameron Young | -1.65 | 29 | 1808 |
Joaquin Niemann | -1.50 | 38 | 1790 |
Taylor Montgomery | -1.06 | 69 | 1734 |
Sergio Garcia | -0.96 | 78 | 1721 |
Corey Conners | -1.68 | 25 | 1813 |
Billy Horschel | -0.82 | 86 | 1704 |
Alex Noren | -1.32 | 51 | 1767 |
Will Zalatoris | -1.64 | 30 | 1807 |
Abraham Ancer | -0.68 | 103 | 1686 |
Talor Gooch | -0.76 | 94 | 1695 |
Max Homa | -1.94 | 14 | 1846 |
Ian Poulter | -0.05 | 172 | 1605 |
Webb Simpson | -0.29 | 150 | 1636 |
Adam Scott | -1.72 | 22 | 1818 |
Tony Finau | -1.69 | 24 | 1813 |
Harold Varner III | -0.72 | 99 | 1691 |
Tom Hoge | -1.45 | 43 | 1783 |
Jason Kokrak | -0.30 | 148 | 1637 |
Jordan Spieth | -1.92 | 15 | 1842 |
Keegan Bradley | -1.43 | 45 | 1781 |
Keith Mitchell | -1.34 | 49 | 1769 |
Maverick McNealy | -0.80 | 87 | 1701 |
Harris English | -1.42 | 46 | 1779 |
Chris Kirk | -1.28 | 58 | 1761 |
Marc Leishman | -0.31 | 147 | 1639 |
Brian Harman | -1.85 | 17 | 1834 |
Harry Hall | -0.53 | 118 | 1667 |
Tommy Fleetwood | -1.79 | 19 | 1827 |
Patton Kizzire | -0.10 | 166 | 1612 |
Robert MacIntyre | -0.56 | 117 | 1671 |
Brooks Koepka | -2.17 | 7 | 1874 |
Kevin Na | -0.16 | 160 | 1620 |
Adam Hadwin | -1.22 | 60 | 1755 |
Russell Knox | 0.23 | 187 | 1570 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -1.15 | 66 | 1746 |
Gary Woodland | -0.73 | 96 | 1693 |
Mackenzie Hughes | -0.66 | 104 | 1684 |
Jason Day | -1.66 | 27 | 1810 |
Patrick Reed | -1.88 | 16 | 1838 |
Kevin Streelman | -0.31 | 146 | 1639 |
Jhonattan Vegas | -0.68 | 101 | 1686 |
Justin Rose | -1.29 | 55 | 1763 |
Luke List | -0.95 | 79 | 1719 |
Cameron Tringale | -0.23 | 154 | 1629 |
Denny McCarthy | -1.44 | 44 | 1782 |
Kevin Kisner | 1.32 | 233 | 1432 |
Joel Dahmen | -0.07 | 171 | 1609 |
Erik van Rooyen | -1.09 | 68 | 1737 |
Taylor Pendrith | -0.75 | 95 | 1695 |
Thomas Detry | -0.63 | 106 | 1680 |
Mark Hubbard | -0.91 | 83 | 1715 |
Sepp Straka | -0.97 | 75 | 1722 |
Matt Kuchar | -0.66 | 105 | 1683 |
Charles Howell III | -1.66 | 26 | 1810 |
Scott Stallings | -0.35 | 137 | 1644 |
Doug Ghim | -1.18 | 62 | 1749 |
Davis Riley | 0.25 | 190 | 1567 |
Pat Perez | 0.12 | 183 | 1585 |
Si Woo Kim | -1.29 | 56 | 1763 |
Aaron Rai | -1.21 | 61 | 1753 |
Troy Merritt | -0.20 | 156 | 1625 |
Sahith Theegala | -1.76 | 20 | 1822 |
Erik Barnes | -0.10 | 165 | 1612 |
Lanto Griffin | 0.04 | 178 | 1595 |
Martin Laird | -0.20 | 157 | 1625 |
Austin Eckroat | -1.18 | 63 | 1748 |
Bernd Wiesberger | 0.83 | 221 | 1495 |
Matt Jones | 0.05 | 179 | 1593 |
Stewart Cink | -0.34 | 141 | 1642 |
C.T. Pan | -0.27 | 152 | 1634 |
Brian Stuard | 1.25 | 232 | 1441 |
Alex Smalley | -0.23 | 155 | 1629 |
Carlos Ortiz | -1.49 | 39 | 1788 |
Taylor Moore | -0.61 | 111 | 1676 |
Dylan Frittelli | 1.54 | 239 | 1404 |
Zach Johnson | -0.60 | 112 | 1675 |
Hank Lebioda | 0.98 | 226 | 1475 |
Adam Long | -0.08 | 169 | 1610 |
Ryan Moore | -0.19 | 158 | 1623 |
Brendon Todd | -1.30 | 54 | 1764 |
Dylan Wu | -0.43 | 128 | 1654 |
Doc Redman | 0.38 | 198 | 1551 |
Brice Garnett | 0.23 | 186 | 1570 |
Ryan Armour | 0.69 | 212 | 1512 |
Rickie Fowler | -0.98 | 73 | 1724 |
Lucas Glover | -1.17 | 64 | 1748 |
Nick Taylor | -1.16 | 65 | 1746 |
Danny Willett | -0.09 | 167 | 1610 |
Patrick Rodgers | -0.92 | 81 | 1716 |
Adam Svensson | -0.86 | 85 | 1709 |
Beau Hossler | -1.47 | 41 | 1786 |
Branden Grace | -1.51 | 37 | 1790 |
Matthias Schwab | 0.75 | 214 | 1504 |
Sam Ryder | -0.96 | 77 | 1722 |
J.J. Spaun | -0.80 | 88 | 1701 |
Nick Hardy | -0.53 | 119 | 1666 |
Kramer Hickok | 0.03 | 177 | 1596 |
Francesco Molinari | 0.32 | 194 | 1560 |
Wade Ormsby | 1.46 | 237 | 1415 |
Thomas Pieters | -0.36 | 136 | 1645 |
Andrew Putnam | -1.34 | 47 | 1770 |
Lucas Herbert | -0.46 | 126 | 1657 |
Lee Westwood | -0.44 | 127 | 1655 |
Emiliano Grillo | -1.26 | 59 | 1759 |
Akshay Bhatia | -0.89 | 84 | 1712 |
Ryan Palmer | -0.34 | 140 | 1643 |
Greyson Sigg | -0.97 | 74 | 1722 |
Charley Hoffman | -0.50 | 123 | 1663 |
Tyler Duncan | -0.57 | 116 | 1671 |
Harry Higgs | 0.82 | 220 | 1496 |
Matthew Wolff | -1.70 | 23 | 1814 |
David Lipsky | 0.10 | 182 | 1587 |
Austin Smotherman | -0.35 | 138 | 1644 |
Robert Streb | 0.46 | 202 | 1542 |
Chez Reavie | -0.08 | 170 | 1610 |
Hudson Swafford | 1.48 | 238 | 1413 |
Luke Donald | -0.42 | 130 | 1653 |
Tom Kim | -1.57 | 34 | 1799 |
Peter Malnati | -0.18 | 159 | 1623 |
Vince Whaley | -0.39 | 132 | 1648 |
Brandt Snedeker | 1.42 | 236 | 1419 |
Wyndham Clark | -2.09 | 10 | 1865 |
Jonathan Byrd | 0.76 | 215 | 1503 |
Lee Hodges | -0.51 | 122 | 1664 |
Matt Wallace | -0.50 | 124 | 1662 |
Trey Mullinax | 0.09 | 181 | 1588 |
Byeong Hun An | -1.58 | 32 | 1800 |
Garrick Higgo | -0.62 | 109 | 1678 |
Nate Lashley | -0.68 | 102 | 1686 |
Kevin Tway | -0.13 | 161 | 1616 |
James Hahn | -0.12 | 162 | 1615 |
Jason Dufner | 0.38 | 199 | 1551 |
J.T. Poston | -1.54 | 36 | 1795 |
Justin Suh | -0.63 | 107 | 1679 |
Cameron Champ | -0.32 | 144 | 1640 |
Davis Thompson | -1.33 | 50 | 1768 |
Padraig Harrington | -0.78 | 93 | 1698 |
Henrik Norlander | -0.02 | 176 | 1602 |
Scott Piercy | -0.49 | 125 | 1662 |
Kevin Chappell | 0.25 | 189 | 1568 |
Satoshi Kodaira | -0.34 | 142 | 1642 |
Camilo Villegas | 0.14 | 184 | 1582 |
Peter Uihlein | -1.31 | 53 | 1765 |
Sean O'Hair | 0.59 | 208 | 1524 |
Bill Haas | 0.50 | 204 | 1536 |
Victor Perez | -1.05 | 70 | 1733 |
Hayden Buckley | -0.11 | 164 | 1613 |
Jimmy Walker | 0.44 | 201 | 1544 |
Phil Mickelson | -0.08 | 168 | 1610 |
Joseph Bramlett | -0.73 | 98 | 1691 |
Nick Watney | 1.89 | 249 | 1360 |
Scott Brown | 1.08 | 229 | 1463 |
Martin Kaymer | -0.28 | 151 | 1636 |
Graeme McDowell | 0.32 | 195 | 1559 |
Adam Schenk | -0.92 | 80 | 1717 |
Cameron Percy | 0.44 | 200 | 1544 |
Stephan Jaeger | -1.29 | 57 | 1762 |
Will Gordon | -0.34 | 139 | 1643 |
Ben Martin | -0.11 | 163 | 1613 |
Aaron Baddeley | -0.79 | 92 | 1700 |
Charl Schwartzel | 0.08 | 180 | 1590 |
Chris Stroud | 0.53 | 205 | 1532 |
Kyle Stanley | 1.79 | 245 | 1373 |
Ben Taylor | 1.05 | 228 | 1466 |
Seung-yul Noh | 0.27 | 191 | 1565 |
MJ Daffue | 0.33 | 196 | 1557 |
Jim Herman | 1.60 | 240 | 1397 |
William McGirt | 0.38 | 197 | 1552 |
David Lingmerth | 0.63 | 209 | 1520 |
Andrew Novak | -0.58 | 113 | 1674 |
Richy Werenski | 0.65 | 210 | 1518 |
Robby Shelton | -0.31 | 145 | 1639 |
Wesley Bryan | 0.91 | 224 | 1485 |
Brandon Wu | -0.62 | 110 | 1678 |
Chad Ramey | -0.36 | 135 | 1646 |
Henrik Stenson | -0.80 | 89 | 1701 |
Shaun Norris | 1.69 | 243 | 1386 |
Scott Harrington | 0.89 | 223 | 1487 |
Sung Kang | 0.87 | 222 | 1489 |
Michael Gligic | 1.65 | 241 | 1391 |
Max McGreevy | 1.08 | 230 | 1463 |
Ryan Brehm | 1.34 | 235 | 1429 |
Kurt Kitayama | -0.91 | 82 | 1715 |
Chesson Hadley | -1.01 | 72 | 1728 |
Justin Lower | -0.57 | 114 | 1672 |
Austin Cook | 0.47 | 203 | 1541 |
Andrew Landry | 1.33 | 234 | 1431 |
Brian Gay | 0.92 | 225 | 1484 |
Callum Tarren | -0.05 | 173 | 1605 |
Kevin Yu | -0.40 | 131 | 1650 |
Kelly Kraft | -0.43 | 129 | 1653 |
Ryan Fox | -1.10 | 67 | 1739 |
Chase Koepka | 0.78 | 218 | 1500 |
Ricky Barnes | 0.74 | 213 | 1506 |
J.B. Holmes | 1.85 | 248 | 1365 |
Martin Trainer | 0.56 | 206 | 1529 |
Min Woo Lee | -1.58 | 33 | 1799 |
Derek Ernst | 1.84 | 247 | 1366 |
Greg Chalmers | 1.81 | 246 | 1370 |
Kyle Westmoreland | 0.99 | 227 | 1474 |
Zac Blair | -0.34 | 143 | 1642 |
Brent Grant | 0.65 | 211 | 1517 |
Jonas Blixt | 1.69 | 244 | 1385 |
Michael Kim | -0.72 | 100 | 1690 |
Laurie Canter | -0.29 | 149 | 1636 |
Grayson Murray | 0.59 | 207 | 1524 |
Peter Kuest | -0.80 | 91 | 1700 |
Tommy Gainey | 1.66 | 242 | 1389 |
Cody Gribble | 0.19 | 185 | 1575 |
Parker Coody | -0.57 | 115 | 1672 |
Carson Young | -0.73 | 97 | 1692 |
Sam Horsfield | -0.02 | 175 | 1603 |
James Piot | 0.77 | 217 | 1502 |
Richard Bland | -0.62 | 108 | 1678 |
Alex Noren | -1.32 | 51 | 1767 |
Carl Yuan | -0.03 | 174 | 1604 |
Seonghyeon Kim | -0.51 | 121 | 1665 |
Zecheng Dou | 0.29 | 192 | 1563 |
Sam Stevens | -0.38 | 133 | 1648 |
Kevin Roy | 0.24 | 188 | 1569 |
Vincent Norrman | -0.38 | 134 | 1647 |
Ben Griffin | -0.97 | 76 | 1722 |
Trevor Cone | 1.09 | 231 | 1461 |
Eric Cole | -1.72 | 21 | 1818 |
Tano Goya | -0.27 | 153 | 1634 |
Brandon Matthews | 2.47 | 250 | 1287 |
Harrison Endycott | 0.30 | 193 | 1561 |
Trevor Werbylo | 0.80 | 219 | 1498 |
Tyson Alexander | 0.77 | 216 | 1502 |
Adrian Meronk | -0.80 | 90 | 1700 |