Matchups in PGA are some of the best bets you can make because they offer lines on both sides, which allows you to get better odds. Golf is highly volatile, which makes it so any golfer can finish at the top or bottom in any given week, so the win probabilities can be difficult to estimate without digging into the data. Having a PGA Power Rankings and Matchups tool is pivotal in winning — whether it’s DFS or betting. ELO ratings are designed to give you the probability in a head-to-head matchup, so they can help us figure out the probability and which bets are likely to be profitable.
Our PGA power rankings are determined by the past year’s performance, weighting more recent tournaments more heavily. This is based on the formula we use for our PGA DFS Projections. These help give us an idea of how many strokes above or below an average field each golfer will score. For this week’s tournament, sports book odds and course fit are incorporated into the ELO rating. S/R_Proj represents the total number of strokes that golfer is expected to above or below average for the week. Like a golf score the lower the better.
To calculate the odds of a head to head matchup, you can use the formula 1/(1+10^((RatingA-RatingB)/400) or you can use a free calculator like this.
This Week's Field
Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
---|---|---|---|
Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
Tom Kim | -1.75 | 36 | 1821 |
Davis Thompson | -1.52 | 34 | 1793 |
Taylor Pendrith | -1.34 | 38 | 1770 |
Stephan Jaeger | -1.32 | 61 | 1767 |
Tom Hoge | -1.36 | 53 | 1772 |
Kurt Kitayama | -1.45 | 42 | 1783 |
Beau Hossler | -1.34 | 68 | 1769 |
Seamus Power | -1.20 | 52 | 1752 |
Keith Mitchell | -1.40 | 41 | 1777 |
Matthew McCarty | -1.34 | 1,000 | 1770 |
Eric Cole | -1.21 | 58 | 1752 |
Adam Hadwin | -1.19 | 80 | 1751 |
Cameron Davis | -1.27 | 69 | 1760 |
Maverick McNealy | -1.21 | 59 | 1753 |
Harry Hall | -0.97 | 84 | 1722 |
Ben Griffin | -1.17 | 55 | 1748 |
J.T. Poston | -1.15 | 65 | 1746 |
Jhonattan Vegas | -1.05 | 57 | 1732 |
Harris English | -1.11 | 72 | 1740 |
J.J. Spaun | -1.29 | 56 | 1763 |
Matti Schmid | -0.99 | 103 | 1724 |
Kevin Yu | -0.84 | 121 | 1705 |
Erik Van Rooyen | -0.95 | 90 | 1720 |
Andrew Putnam | -1.16 | 73 | 1746 |
Chan Kim | -1.03 | 64 | 1729 |
Ryan Fox | -0.99 | 82 | 1726 |
Austin Eckroat | -0.95 | 74 | 1720 |
Rickie Fowler | -0.91 | 85 | 1715 |
Adam Svensson | -1.06 | 62 | 1734 |
Brendon Todd | -1.10 | 63 | 1739 |
Ben Silverman | -0.98 | 46 | 1724 |
Sam Stevens | -0.84 | 86 | 1706 |
Matt Kuchar | -0.88 | 83 | 1711 |
Patton Kizzire | -0.91 | 128 | 1715 |
Taylor Moore | -0.75 | 97 | 1695 |
Charley Hoffman | -0.74 | 102 | 1693 |
Doug Ghim | -1.20 | 70 | 1751 |
Daniel Berger | -0.85 | 100 | 1707 |
Patrick Fishburn | -0.90 | 123 | 1713 |
Andrew Novak | -1.08 | 60 | 1736 |
Webb Simpson | -0.70 | 112 | 1688 |
Justin Lower | -0.86 | 87 | 1708 |
Neal Shipley | -1.00 | 1727 | |
Jacob Bridgeman | -0.99 | 79 | 1725 |
Alex Smalley | -0.69 | 134 | 1687 |
Nick Taylor | -0.85 | 107 | 1708 |
Chandler Phillips | -0.88 | 96 | 1711 |
Gary Woodland | -0.69 | 105 | 1686 |
Mark Hubbard | -0.71 | 101 | 1690 |
Henrik Norlander | -0.96 | 140 | 1721 |
Ben Kohles | -0.68 | 109 | 1686 |
Vince Whaley | -0.55 | 141 | 1669 |
Chesson Hadley | -0.45 | 146 | 1657 |
Nick Hardy | -0.85 | 99 | 1707 |
Kyoung-Hoon Lee | -0.66 | 108 | 1683 |
Rico Hoey | -0.69 | 104 | 1687 |
Joe Highsmith | -0.69 | 98 | 1686 |
Bud Cauley | -0.53 | 114 | 1666 |
Lee Hodges | -0.73 | 120 | 1692 |
Matthew NeSmith | -0.65 | 1681 | |
Cameron Champ | -0.59 | 131 | 1674 |
Justin Suh | -0.53 | 133 | 1667 |
Chris Gotterup | -0.39 | 155 | 1649 |
Chad Ramey | -0.56 | 125 | 1671 |
Hayden Springer | -0.45 | 95 | 1657 |
Adam Schenk | -0.52 | 136 | 1665 |
Michael Kim | -0.54 | 126 | 1668 |
Carson Young | -0.62 | 89 | 1678 |
C.T. Pan | -0.62 | 93 | 1678 |
Greyson Sigg | -0.79 | 111 | 1700 |
Joseph Bramlett | -0.70 | 115 | 1688 |
Trey Mullinax | -0.47 | 181 | 1659 |
Trace Crowe | -0.35 | 117 | 1644 |
Ryan Moore | -0.36 | 143 | 1645 |
David Skinns | -0.44 | 110 | 1656 |
Kevin Streelman | -0.57 | 132 | 1672 |
Joel Dahmen | -0.56 | 149 | 1670 |
Luke List | -0.26 | 159 | 1632 |
Davis Riley | -0.34 | 147 | 1642 |
Sami Valimaki | -0.28 | 151 | 1634 |
Lanto Griffin | -0.64 | 156 | 1681 |
Pierceson Coody | -0.35 | 175 | 1644 |
Zac Blair | -0.34 | 144 | 1642 |
Alexander Bjork | 0.56 | 1,000 | 1528 |
Martin Laird | -0.42 | 163 | 1653 |
Nate Lashley | -0.42 | 122 | 1653 |
Sam Ryder | -0.45 | 161 | 1657 |
Seonghyeon Kim | -0.30 | 1638 | |
Brandon Wu | -0.12 | 174 | 1615 |
Brice Garnett | -0.20 | 154 | 1625 |
David Lipsky | -0.17 | 165 | 1621 |
Nicolas Echavarria | -0.45 | 157 | 1657 |
Taylor Montgomery | -0.12 | 145 | 1614 |
Tyler Duncan | -0.30 | 153 | 1638 |
Roger Sloan | -0.17 | 148 | 1622 |
Dylan Wu | -0.44 | 142 | 1655 |
Scott Piercy | -0.20 | 127 | 1625 |
Christo Lamprecht | 0.28 | 1,000 | 1564 |
Alejandro Tosti | 0.10 | 200 | 1587 |
Hayden Buckley | -0.09 | 195 | 1610 |
Carl Yuan | -0.04 | 180 | 1605 |
Chez Reavie | -0.20 | 164 | 1624 |
Ian Gilligan | 0.05 | 1,000 | 1593 |
Will Gordon | -0.11 | 169 | 1613 |
Robby Shelton | -0.16 | 176 | 1620 |
Garrick Higgo | -0.21 | 166 | 1626 |
Tom Whitney | 0.13 | 191 | 1583 |
Peter Malnati | -0.01 | 185 | 1600 |
Caden Fioroni | 0.80 | 1,000 | 1498 |
Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.15 | 206 | 1581 |
Troy Merritt | -0.06 | 170 | 1608 |
Rafael Campos | 0.08 | 190 | 1589 |
Norman Xiong | 0.13 | 1,000 | 1583 |
Callum Tarren | 0.23 | 207 | 1571 |
Aaron Baddeley | 0.14 | 173 | 1582 |
Francesco Molinari | 0.20 | 172 | 1574 |
Ryan Palmer | 0.20 | 187 | 1575 |
Kevin Dougherty | 0.18 | 186 | 1576 |
Ben Taylor | 0.62 | 230 | 1521 |
Paul Barjon | 0.77 | 228 | 1502 |
Morgan Hoffmann | 0.01 | 1599 | |
Danny Willett | 0.25 | 1568 | |
Dan McCarthy | 0.23 | 1571 | |
Ryan Brehm | 0.88 | 221 | 1488 |
Ryan McCormick | 0.69 | 234 | 1512 |
Tyson Alexander | 0.80 | 218 | 1498 |
Kevin Kisner | 1.06 | 233 | 1465 |
Camilo Villegas | 0.84 | 211 | 1493 |
Erik Matthewson | 1.25 | 1,000 | 1441 |
Nicolo Galletti | 0.64 | 1,000 | 1518 |
Power Rankings
Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
---|---|---|---|
Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
Jon Rahm | -2.32 | 10 | 1893 |
Justin Thomas | -1.74 | 28 | 1820 |
Patrick Cantlay | -2.26 | 11 | 1886 |
Daniel Berger | -0.74 | 100 | 1693 |
Viktor Hovland | -2.17 | 16 | 1874 |
Rory McIlroy | -2.49 | 5 | 1915 |
Scottie Scheffler | -3.83 | 1 | 2085 |
Shane Lowry | -2.00 | 18 | 1853 |
Sam Burns | -2.21 | 12 | 1880 |
Xander Schauffele | -3.43 | 2 | 2034 |
Tyrrell Hatton | -2.07 | 17 | 1862 |
Russell Henley | -2.54 | 4 | 1922 |
Collin Morikawa | -2.85 | 3 | 1961 |
Hideki Matsuyama | -2.46 | 7 | 1911 |
Sungjae Im | -2.19 | 14 | 1877 |
Matt Fitzpatrick | -1.72 | 30 | 1817 |
Cameron Young | -1.37 | 51 | 1773 |
Taylor Montgomery | -0.31 | 145 | 1638 |
Corey Conners | -2.21 | 13 | 1879 |
Billy Horschel | -1.77 | 27 | 1824 |
Seamus Power | -1.35 | 52 | 1770 |
Alex Noren | -1.90 | 23 | 1841 |
Will Zalatoris | -1.73 | 29 | 1819 |
Max Homa | -1.06 | 78 | 1734 |
Webb Simpson | -0.66 | 112 | 1683 |
Adam Scott | -2.35 | 9 | 1897 |
Tony Finau | -2.00 | 19 | 1853 |
Tom Hoge | -1.34 | 53 | 1769 |
Bud Cauley | -0.65 | 114 | 1681 |
Jordan Spieth | -1.18 | 71 | 1749 |
Keegan Bradley | -1.50 | 40 | 1790 |
Keith Mitchell | -1.48 | 41 | 1787 |
Maverick McNealy | -1.24 | 59 | 1756 |
Harris English | -1.17 | 72 | 1748 |
Chris Kirk | -1.20 | 67 | 1751 |
Brian Harman | -1.80 | 26 | 1827 |
Harry Hall | -0.94 | 84 | 1719 |
Tommy Fleetwood | -2.18 | 15 | 1876 |
Patton Kizzire | -0.52 | 128 | 1665 |
Robert MacIntyre | -2.48 | 6 | 1914 |
Adam Hadwin | -1.04 | 80 | 1731 |
Russell Knox | 0.37 | 198 | 1552 |
Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -1.46 | 43 | 1785 |
Gary Woodland | -0.70 | 105 | 1688 |
Mackenzie Hughes | -1.63 | 37 | 1805 |
Jason Day | -1.67 | 32 | 1811 |
Kevin Streelman | -0.44 | 132 | 1655 |
Jhonattan Vegas | -1.28 | 57 | 1762 |
Justin Rose | -1.30 | 54 | 1764 |
Luke List | -0.20 | 159 | 1625 |
Denny McCarthy | -1.72 | 31 | 1817 |
Kevin Kisner | 1.39 | 233 | 1423 |
Joel Dahmen | -0.30 | 149 | 1637 |
Erik van Rooyen | -0.83 | 90 | 1704 |
Kyoung-Hoon Lee | -0.68 | 108 | 1686 |
Taylor Pendrith | -1.57 | 38 | 1799 |
Thomas Detry | -1.20 | 66 | 1752 |
Mark Hubbard | -0.73 | 101 | 1692 |
Sepp Straka | -1.43 | 44 | 1781 |
Matt Kuchar | -0.97 | 83 | 1723 |
Scott Stallings | -0.25 | 152 | 1632 |
Doug Ghim | -1.18 | 70 | 1750 |
Davis Riley | -0.30 | 147 | 1637 |
Si Woo Kim | -1.64 | 35 | 1807 |
Aaron Rai | -1.93 | 21 | 1845 |
Troy Merritt | -0.07 | 170 | 1608 |
Sahith Theegala | -1.80 | 25 | 1828 |
Erik Barnes | 0.72 | 210 | 1509 |
Cameron Davis | -1.19 | 69 | 1751 |
Lanto Griffin | -0.22 | 156 | 1627 |
Martin Laird | -0.16 | 163 | 1619 |
Austin Eckroat | -1.10 | 74 | 1739 |
Stewart Cink | -0.20 | 160 | 1624 |
C.T. Pan | -0.80 | 93 | 1701 |
Brian Stuard | 1.27 | 232 | 1439 |
Alex Smalley | -0.43 | 134 | 1654 |
Taylor Moore | -0.77 | 97 | 1697 |
Dylan Frittelli | 1.57 | 237 | 1401 |
Zach Johnson | -0.64 | 116 | 1680 |
Hank Lebioda | 1.13 | 227 | 1456 |
Adam Long | 0.25 | 192 | 1568 |
Ryan Moore | -0.34 | 143 | 1643 |
Brendon Todd | -1.21 | 63 | 1752 |
Dylan Wu | -0.35 | 142 | 1644 |
Doc Redman | 0.37 | 199 | 1552 |
Brice Garnett | -0.25 | 154 | 1631 |
Ryan Armour | 0.71 | 209 | 1510 |
Rickie Fowler | -0.93 | 85 | 1718 |
Lucas Glover | -1.42 | 45 | 1779 |
Nick Taylor | -0.69 | 107 | 1687 |
Patrick Rodgers | -1.09 | 75 | 1737 |
Adam Svensson | -1.21 | 62 | 1753 |
Beau Hossler | -1.20 | 68 | 1751 |
Chan Kim | -1.21 | 64 | 1752 |
Matthias Schwab | 0.91 | 219 | 1484 |
Sam Ryder | -0.19 | 161 | 1623 |
J.J. Spaun | -1.28 | 56 | 1762 |
Nick Hardy | -0.75 | 99 | 1694 |
Kramer Hickok | 0.10 | 184 | 1586 |
Francesco Molinari | -0.03 | 172 | 1604 |
Andrew Putnam | -1.15 | 73 | 1746 |
Lucas Herbert | -0.81 | 91 | 1702 |
Emiliano Grillo | -1.08 | 76 | 1737 |
Akshay Bhatia | -1.37 | 49 | 1773 |
Ryan Palmer | 0.17 | 187 | 1578 |
Greyson Sigg | -0.67 | 111 | 1684 |
Charley Hoffman | -0.73 | 102 | 1691 |
Tyler Duncan | -0.25 | 153 | 1632 |
Harry Higgs | 1.07 | 223 | 1464 |
David Lipsky | -0.13 | 165 | 1616 |
Austin Smotherman | -0.62 | 119 | 1679 |
Robert Streb | 0.19 | 189 | 1576 |
Chez Reavie | -0.15 | 164 | 1618 |
Luke Donald | -0.28 | 150 | 1636 |
Tom Kim | -1.63 | 36 | 1806 |
Peter Malnati | 0.13 | 185 | 1583 |
Vince Whaley | -0.35 | 141 | 1644 |
Brandt Snedeker | 0.52 | 205 | 1534 |
Wyndham Clark | -1.92 | 22 | 1843 |
Lee Hodges | -0.61 | 120 | 1677 |
Matt Wallace | -1.07 | 77 | 1735 |
Trey Mullinax | 0.08 | 181 | 1589 |
Byeong Hun An | -1.65 | 33 | 1809 |
Garrick Higgo | -0.12 | 166 | 1615 |
Nate Lashley | -0.58 | 122 | 1673 |
Kevin Tway | -0.38 | 138 | 1648 |
James Hahn | 0.05 | 177 | 1593 |
Roger Sloan | -0.30 | 148 | 1637 |
Jason Dufner | 0.29 | 194 | 1563 |
J.T. Poston | -1.21 | 65 | 1752 |
Justin Suh | -0.43 | 133 | 1655 |
Cameron Champ | -0.46 | 131 | 1658 |
Davis Thompson | -1.64 | 34 | 1807 |
Padraig Harrington | -0.42 | 135 | 1653 |
Henrik Norlander | -0.36 | 140 | 1645 |
Scott Piercy | -0.53 | 127 | 1667 |
Kevin Chappell | -0.16 | 162 | 1620 |
Josh Teater | 1.11 | 226 | 1459 |
Satoshi Kodaira | -0.37 | 139 | 1646 |
Camilo Villegas | 0.76 | 211 | 1503 |
Sean O'Hair | 0.35 | 197 | 1555 |
Victor Perez | -1.37 | 50 | 1773 |
Hayden Buckley | 0.30 | 195 | 1562 |
Jimmy Walker | 0.96 | 220 | 1477 |
Joseph Bramlett | -0.64 | 115 | 1681 |
Nick Watney | 2.14 | 242 | 1328 |
Adam Schenk | -0.41 | 136 | 1652 |
Cameron Percy | 0.58 | 208 | 1526 |
Stephan Jaeger | -1.21 | 61 | 1753 |
Will Gordon | -0.07 | 169 | 1609 |
Ben Martin | -0.50 | 130 | 1663 |
Aaron Baddeley | 0.00 | 173 | 1599 |
Ben Taylor | 1.19 | 230 | 1449 |
Bronson Burgoon | -0.20 | 158 | 1625 |
MJ Daffue | 0.09 | 182 | 1588 |
Ben Kohles | -0.68 | 109 | 1686 |
Jim Herman | 1.77 | 240 | 1376 |
William McGirt | 0.51 | 204 | 1534 |
David Lingmerth | 0.84 | 213 | 1493 |
Andrew Novak | -1.24 | 60 | 1756 |
Richy Werenski | 0.84 | 214 | 1493 |
Robby Shelton | 0.03 | 176 | 1595 |
Wesley Bryan | 0.06 | 178 | 1592 |
Paul Barjon | 1.18 | 228 | 1450 |
Brandon Wu | 0.01 | 174 | 1598 |
Chad Ramey | -0.54 | 125 | 1668 |
Scott Harrington | 0.86 | 216 | 1490 |
Michael Gligic | 1.81 | 241 | 1371 |
Scott Gutschewski | 1.65 | 238 | 1390 |
Max McGreevy | 0.32 | 196 | 1559 |
Ryan Brehm | 1.02 | 221 | 1470 |
Kurt Kitayama | -1.47 | 42 | 1786 |
Chesson Hadley | -0.30 | 146 | 1637 |
Justin Lower | -0.91 | 87 | 1715 |
Austin Cook | 0.43 | 201 | 1545 |
Andrew Landry | 1.50 | 236 | 1410 |
Rafael Campos | 0.19 | 190 | 1575 |
Callum Tarren | 0.56 | 207 | 1529 |
Matti Schmid | -0.71 | 103 | 1689 |
Kevin Yu | -0.58 | 121 | 1673 |
Sami Valimaki | -0.28 | 151 | 1635 |
Kelly Kraft | -0.51 | 129 | 1664 |
Ryan Fox | -0.98 | 82 | 1724 |
J.B. Holmes | 1.74 | 239 | 1379 |
Martin Trainer | 1.26 | 231 | 1440 |
Min Woo Lee | -1.38 | 47 | 1774 |
David Skinns | -0.67 | 110 | 1685 |
Kyle Westmoreland | 1.05 | 222 | 1467 |
Zac Blair | -0.31 | 144 | 1639 |
Brent Grant | 0.51 | 203 | 1535 |
Michael Kim | -0.53 | 126 | 1667 |
Grayson Murray | -0.70 | 106 | 1688 |
Peter Kuest | -0.65 | 113 | 1682 |
Jorge Campillo | -0.54 | 124 | 1668 |
Cody Gribble | 1.08 | 225 | 1462 |
Parker Coody | -0.06 | 171 | 1608 |
Carson Young | -0.85 | 89 | 1707 |
Chris Gotterup | -0.22 | 155 | 1627 |
Thorbjorn Olesen | -0.63 | 118 | 1679 |
Ben Silverman | -1.40 | 46 | 1777 |
Michael Thorbjornsen | -1.37 | 48 | 1773 |
Alex Noren | -1.90 | 23 | 1841 |
Carl Yuan | 0.07 | 180 | 1591 |
Zecheng Dou | 0.18 | 188 | 1577 |
Sam Stevens | -0.93 | 86 | 1717 |
Augusto Nunez | 0.85 | 215 | 1492 |
Paul Haley | 1.46 | 235 | 1415 |
Kevin Roy | -0.12 | 168 | 1614 |
Vincent Norrman | 0.10 | 183 | 1587 |
Ben Griffin | -1.28 | 55 | 1762 |
Trevor Cone | 1.08 | 224 | 1463 |
Eric Cole | -1.27 | 58 | 1760 |
Nicolas Echavarria | -0.21 | 157 | 1626 |
Tano Goya | -0.41 | 137 | 1651 |
Harrison Endycott | 0.49 | 202 | 1537 |
Trevor Werbylo | 0.80 | 212 | 1499 |
Jacob Bridgeman | -1.05 | 79 | 1732 |
Tyson Alexander | 0.90 | 218 | 1486 |
Nicolai Hojgaard | -0.85 | 88 | 1707 |
Nick Dunlap | -0.80 | 94 | 1701 |
Luke Clanton | -1.95 | 20 | 1846 |
Ryo Hisatsune | -0.81 | 92 | 1702 |
Chandler Phillips | -0.78 | 96 | 1698 |
Alejandro Tosti | 0.39 | 200 | 1551 |
Mac Meissner | -1.01 | 81 | 1728 |
Jake Knapp | -0.12 | 167 | 1615 |
Max Greyserman | -1.57 | 39 | 1798 |
Pierceson Coody | 0.02 | 175 | 1597 |
Patrick Fishburn | -0.55 | 123 | 1670 |
Trace Crowe | -0.63 | 117 | 1679 |
Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.56 | 206 | 1529 |
Kevin Dougherty | 0.15 | 186 | 1581 |
Joe Highsmith | -0.77 | 98 | 1697 |
Rico Hoey | -0.70 | 104 | 1688 |
Hayden Springer | -0.78 | 95 | 1698 |
Wilson Furr | 0.06 | 179 | 1591 |
Ryan McCormick | 1.45 | 234 | 1416 |
Nicholas Lindheim | 0.28 | 193 | 1564 |
Tom Whitney | 0.21 | 191 | 1572 |
Blaine Hale | 0.87 | 217 | 1489 |
Raul Pereda | 1.18 | 229 | 1450 |
Ludvig Aberg | -2.36 | 8 | 1899 |