Matchups in PGA are some of the best bets you can make because they offer lines on both sides, which allows you to get better odds. Golf is highly volatile, which makes it so any golfer can finish at the top or bottom in any given week, so the win probabilities can be difficult to estimate without digging into the data. Having a PGA Power Rankings and Matchups tool is pivotal in winning — whether it’s DFS or betting. ELO ratings are designed to give you the probability in a head-to-head matchup, so they can help us figure out the probability and which bets are likely to be profitable.
Our PGA power rankings are determined by the past year’s performance, weighting more recent tournaments more heavily. This is based on the formula we use for our PGA DFS Projections. These help give us an idea of how many strokes above or below an average field each golfer will score. For this week’s tournament, sports book odds and course fit are incorporated into the ELO rating. S/R_Proj represents the total number of strokes that golfer is expected to above or below average for the week. Like a golf score the lower the better.
To calculate the odds of a head to head matchup, you can use the formula 1/(1+10^((RatingA-RatingB)/400) or you can use a free calculator like this.
This Week's Field
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRankings | Touranment_ELO |
| Scottie Scheffler | -3.60 | 1 | 2056 |
| Rory McIlroy | -2.63 | 5 | 1932 |
| Xander Schauffele | -2.63 | 4 | 1933 |
| Collin Morikawa | -2.71 | 3 | 1943 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -2.36 | 18 | 1898 |
| Ludvig Aberg | -2.30 | 12 | 1890 |
| Justin Thomas | -2.35 | 7 | 1897 |
| Sepp Straka | -2.29 | 14 | 1890 |
| Sam Burns | -2.18 | 8 | 1876 |
| Viktor Hovland | -2.23 | 15 | 1882 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -2.34 | 10 | 1896 |
| Russell Henley | -2.34 | 9 | 1896 |
| J.J. Spaun | -2.12 | 22 | 1867 |
| Keegan Bradley | -2.19 | 24 | 1877 |
| Robert Macintyre | -2.23 | 11 | 1882 |
| Shane Lowry | -2.15 | 20 | 1872 |
| Jordan Spieth | -1.98 | 30 | 1850 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | -2.11 | 17 | 1866 |
| Ben Griffin | -2.08 | 19 | 1863 |
| Sungjae Im | -1.91 | 33 | 1842 |
| Taylor Pendrith | -1.86 | 38 | 1835 |
| Cameron Young | -1.49 | 56 | 1788 |
| Si Woo Kim | -2.06 | 25 | 1860 |
| Harris English | -1.87 | 34 | 1836 |
| Tony Finau | -1.80 | 42 | 1828 |
| Adam Scott | -1.93 | 23 | 1844 |
| Maverick McNealy | -1.98 | 28 | 1850 |
| Daniel Berger | -2.00 | 37 | 1853 |
| Aaron Rai | -2.12 | 27 | 1869 |
| Luke Clanton | -1.24 | 32 | 1756 |
| Akshay Bhatia | -1.80 | 41 | 1828 |
| Min Woo Lee | -1.32 | 66 | 1766 |
| J.T. Poston | -1.87 | 31 | 1837 |
| Brian Harman | -1.70 | 60 | 1815 |
| Rickie Fowler | -1.44 | 82 | 1781 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | -1.59 | 54 | 1801 |
| Tom Kim | -1.49 | 70 | 1788 |
| Harry Hall | -1.56 | 46 | 1797 |
| Denny McCarthy | -1.70 | 45 | 1815 |
| Jason Day | -1.85 | 29 | 1834 |
| Ryan Fox | -1.51 | 50 | 1790 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -1.73 | 44 | 1818 |
| Max Greyserman | -1.66 | 35 | 1810 |
| Nick Taylor | -1.67 | 43 | 1811 |
| Wyndham Clark | -1.24 | 64 | 1757 |
| Tom Hoge | -1.50 | 55 | 1790 |
| Bud Cauley | -1.60 | 49 | 1802 |
| Thomas Detry | -1.53 | 48 | 1793 |
| Andrew Novak | -1.64 | 51 | 1808 |
| Ryan Gerard | -1.69 | 218 | 1813 |
| Sam Stevens | -1.56 | 47 | 1797 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -1.49 | 53 | 1788 |
| Michael Kim | -1.63 | 26 | 1807 |
| Max Homa | -0.62 | 122 | 1678 |
| Alex Noren | -1.57 | 39 | 1798 |
| Stephan Jaeger | -1.24 | 67 | 1757 |
| Davis Thompson | -1.58 | 57 | 1800 |
| Kevin Yu | -1.43 | 62 | 1780 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | -1.27 | 71 | 1760 |
| Byeong Hun An | -1.10 | 79 | 1739 |
| Gary Woodland | -0.90 | 97 | 1714 |
| Matti Schmid | -0.79 | 115 | 1700 |
| Eric Cole | -0.96 | 73 | 1721 |
| Lucas Glover | -1.45 | 59 | 1783 |
| Cameron Davis | -0.52 | 141 | 1665 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | -1.18 | 90 | 1749 |
| Austin Eckroat | -1.05 | 105 | 1732 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 0.24 | 217 | 1569 |
| Adam Hadwin | -0.45 | 123 | 1657 |
| Joe Highsmith | -0.58 | 113 | 1673 |
| Brian Campbell | -0.36 | 1,000 | 1646 |
| Nick Dunlap | 0.00 | 183 | 1600 |
| Davis Riley | 0.87 | 135 | 1489 |
Power Rankings
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | S/R_Proj | PowerRanking | ELO |
| Jon Rahm | -2.68 | 6 | 1938 |
| Justin Thomas | -2.57 | 7 | 1925 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -2.18 | 18 | 1876 |
| Daniel Berger | -1.85 | 37 | 1833 |
| Viktor Hovland | -2.26 | 15 | 1886 |
| Rory McIlroy | -2.68 | 5 | 1939 |
| Scottie Scheffler | -4.31 | 1 | 2146 |
| Shane Lowry | -2.17 | 20 | 1874 |
| Sam Burns | -2.43 | 8 | 1908 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | -3.65 | 2 | 2062 |
| Xander Schauffele | -2.70 | 4 | 1941 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | -2.16 | 21 | 1873 |
| Russell Henley | -2.42 | 9 | 1906 |
| Collin Morikawa | -2.75 | 3 | 1948 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | -2.23 | 17 | 1881 |
| Sungjae Im | -1.86 | 33 | 1834 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | -1.77 | 44 | 1824 |
| Cameron Young | -1.50 | 56 | 1789 |
| Joaquin Niemann | -2.23 | 16 | 1882 |
| Taylor Montgomery | -0.42 | 152 | 1652 |
| Corey Conners | -2.30 | 13 | 1891 |
| Billy Horschel | -1.59 | 52 | 1801 |
| Seamus Power | -1.05 | 89 | 1733 |
| Alex Noren | -1.80 | 39 | 1827 |
| Will Zalatoris | -1.41 | 65 | 1778 |
| Max Homa | -0.74 | 122 | 1693 |
| Webb Simpson | -0.80 | 118 | 1701 |
| Adam Scott | -2.09 | 23 | 1865 |
| Tony Finau | -1.78 | 42 | 1825 |
| Tom Hoge | -1.50 | 55 | 1789 |
| Bud Cauley | -1.62 | 49 | 1805 |
| Jordan Spieth | -1.93 | 30 | 1844 |
| Keegan Bradley | -2.06 | 24 | 1861 |
| Keith Mitchell | -1.45 | 61 | 1783 |
| Maverick McNealy | -1.97 | 28 | 1849 |
| Harris English | -1.86 | 34 | 1834 |
| Chris Kirk | -1.18 | 80 | 1748 |
| Brian Harman | -1.46 | 60 | 1784 |
| Harry Hall | -1.73 | 46 | 1818 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | -2.35 | 10 | 1897 |
| Patton Kizzire | -0.07 | 175 | 1609 |
| Robert MacIntyre | -2.35 | 11 | 1897 |
| Brooks Koepka | -1.85 | 36 | 1833 |
| Adam Hadwin | -0.70 | 123 | 1689 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | -1.54 | 53 | 1795 |
| Gary Woodland | -0.99 | 97 | 1725 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | -1.53 | 54 | 1793 |
| Jason Day | -1.95 | 29 | 1847 |
| Kevin Streelman | -0.18 | 170 | 1622 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | -1.05 | 90 | 1733 |
| Justin Rose | -1.23 | 76 | 1756 |
| Luke List | -0.57 | 140 | 1671 |
| Denny McCarthy | -1.76 | 45 | 1822 |
| Kevin Kisner | 0.98 | 208 | 1475 |
| Joel Dahmen | -0.79 | 119 | 1700 |
| Erik van Rooyen | -0.99 | 98 | 1725 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | -0.22 | 168 | 1628 |
| Taylor Pendrith | -1.84 | 38 | 1833 |
| Thomas Detry | -1.63 | 48 | 1806 |
| Mark Hubbard | -0.97 | 99 | 1723 |
| Isaiah Salinda | -0.96 | 102 | 1721 |
| Sepp Straka | -2.28 | 14 | 1889 |
| Matt Kuchar | -1.09 | 87 | 1737 |
| Doug Ghim | -0.92 | 108 | 1716 |
| Davis Riley | -0.62 | 135 | 1678 |
| Si Woo Kim | -2.05 | 25 | 1859 |
| Aaron Rai | -1.99 | 27 | 1852 |
| Troy Merritt | 0.15 | 185 | 1581 |
| Sahith Theegala | -1.13 | 85 | 1743 |
| Erik Barnes | 1.45 | 215 | 1416 |
| Cameron Davis | -0.56 | 141 | 1670 |
| Lanto Griffin | -0.53 | 144 | 1667 |
| Martin Laird | -0.41 | 155 | 1652 |
| Austin Eckroat | -0.94 | 105 | 1718 |
| Stewart Cink | -0.50 | 147 | 1663 |
| C.T. Pan | -0.77 | 121 | 1698 |
| Alex Smalley | -1.27 | 72 | 1761 |
| Taylor Moore | -0.95 | 103 | 1720 |
| Zach Johnson | -0.87 | 111 | 1710 |
| Ryan Moore | -0.40 | 156 | 1650 |
| Brendon Todd | 0.45 | 194 | 1543 |
| Dylan Wu | -0.23 | 167 | 1629 |
| Brice Garnett | -0.47 | 150 | 1659 |
| Rickie Fowler | -1.16 | 82 | 1746 |
| Lucas Glover | -1.46 | 59 | 1785 |
| Nick Taylor | -1.78 | 43 | 1825 |
| Danny Willett | -1.02 | 93 | 1728 |
| Patrick Rodgers | -1.13 | 86 | 1743 |
| Adam Svensson | -0.65 | 130 | 1682 |
| Beau Hossler | -0.92 | 106 | 1716 |
| Chan Kim | -0.60 | 138 | 1675 |
| Sam Ryder | -0.81 | 117 | 1702 |
| J.J. Spaun | -2.15 | 22 | 1871 |
| Nick Hardy | -0.47 | 149 | 1660 |
| Francesco Molinari | 0.14 | 184 | 1582 |
| Andrew Putnam | -1.47 | 58 | 1786 |
| Emiliano Grillo | -1.14 | 84 | 1744 |
| Akshay Bhatia | -1.78 | 41 | 1826 |
| Ryan Palmer | 1.35 | 212 | 1429 |
| Greyson Sigg | -0.66 | 128 | 1684 |
| Charley Hoffman | -0.49 | 148 | 1661 |
| Tyler Duncan | -0.03 | 176 | 1603 |
| Harry Higgs | 0.62 | 201 | 1520 |
| David Lipsky | 0.06 | 180 | 1592 |
| Austin Smotherman | -0.77 | 120 | 1698 |
| Chez Reavie | 0.41 | 193 | 1547 |
| Tom Kim | -1.33 | 70 | 1768 |
| Peter Malnati | 0.58 | 200 | 1526 |
| Vince Whaley | -1.05 | 91 | 1733 |
| Brandt Snedeker | -0.39 | 157 | 1649 |
| Wyndham Clark | -1.41 | 64 | 1779 |
| Lee Hodges | -1.25 | 74 | 1758 |
| Matt Wallace | -1.22 | 78 | 1754 |
| Trey Mullinax | -0.54 | 142 | 1668 |
| Byeong Hun An | -1.21 | 79 | 1753 |
| Garrick Higgo | -0.46 | 151 | 1658 |
| Nate Lashley | -0.59 | 139 | 1675 |
| Kevin Tway | -0.52 | 146 | 1665 |
| James Hahn | 0.04 | 179 | 1594 |
| Roger Sloan | 0.08 | 181 | 1590 |
| J.T. Poston | -1.91 | 31 | 1841 |
| Justin Suh | -0.41 | 153 | 1652 |
| Cameron Champ | -0.65 | 131 | 1681 |
| Davis Thompson | -1.48 | 57 | 1787 |
| Henrik Norlander | -1.00 | 94 | 1727 |
| Scott Piercy | -0.41 | 154 | 1652 |
| Kevin Chappell | -0.63 | 133 | 1679 |
| Josh Teater | 0.85 | 205 | 1492 |
| Camilo Villegas | 0.20 | 188 | 1574 |
| Bill Haas | 1.09 | 211 | 1462 |
| Victor Perez | -1.34 | 69 | 1769 |
| Hayden Buckley | 0.76 | 203 | 1504 |
| Joseph Bramlett | -0.69 | 126 | 1687 |
| Adam Schenk | -0.70 | 125 | 1688 |
| Stephan Jaeger | -1.36 | 67 | 1772 |
| Will Gordon | -0.34 | 161 | 1643 |
| Ben Martin | -0.39 | 158 | 1649 |
| Aaron Baddeley | 0.50 | 197 | 1536 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | -1.00 | 95 | 1726 |
| Ben Taylor | 0.80 | 204 | 1498 |
| Ben Kohles | -0.33 | 163 | 1641 |
| Quade Cummins | -0.61 | 136 | 1676 |
| Andrew Novak | -1.59 | 51 | 1801 |
| Takumi Kanaya | -0.52 | 145 | 1665 |
| Robby Shelton | -0.24 | 166 | 1630 |
| Wesley Bryan | -0.60 | 137 | 1676 |
| Paul Barjon | 1.44 | 214 | 1417 |
| Brandon Wu | -0.27 | 165 | 1634 |
| Chad Ramey | -0.34 | 162 | 1642 |
| Scott Gutschewski | 1.56 | 216 | 1402 |
| Max McGreevy | -1.06 | 88 | 1734 |
| Ryan Brehm | 0.95 | 207 | 1479 |
| Kurt Kitayama | -1.35 | 68 | 1771 |
| Chesson Hadley | -0.19 | 169 | 1624 |
| Justin Lower | -0.35 | 159 | 1644 |
| Rafael Campos | 0.54 | 198 | 1532 |
| Callum Tarren | 0.46 | 196 | 1541 |
| Matti Schmid | -0.82 | 115 | 1703 |
| Kevin Yu | -1.42 | 62 | 1779 |
| Sami Valimaki | -0.66 | 129 | 1683 |
| Rikuya Hoshino | 0.01 | 178 | 1598 |
| Kelly Kraft | -0.94 | 104 | 1718 |
| Ryan Fox | -1.62 | 50 | 1805 |
| John Pak | -0.32 | 164 | 1640 |
| Martin Trainer | 1.05 | 209 | 1466 |
| Min Woo Lee | -1.39 | 66 | 1776 |
| David Skinns | -0.13 | 172 | 1616 |
| Zac Blair | -0.35 | 160 | 1644 |
| Ricky Castillo | -1.25 | 75 | 1757 |
| Danny Walker | -0.90 | 110 | 1713 |
| Michael Kim | -2.03 | 26 | 1857 |
| Jorge Campillo | -0.70 | 124 | 1688 |
| Tim Widing | 0.39 | 191 | 1551 |
| Parker Coody | -0.03 | 177 | 1603 |
| Carson Young | -0.66 | 127 | 1684 |
| Chris Gotterup | -1.00 | 96 | 1726 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | -1.23 | 77 | 1756 |
| Ben Silverman | -0.54 | 143 | 1668 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | -0.96 | 101 | 1721 |
| Alex Noren | -1.80 | 39 | 1827 |
| Carl Yuan | 0.35 | 189 | 1555 |
| Sam Stevens | -1.64 | 47 | 1808 |
| Kevin Roy | -0.90 | 109 | 1714 |
| Vincent Norrman | 0.19 | 186 | 1576 |
| Philip Knowles | 1.06 | 210 | 1466 |
| Ben Griffin | -2.17 | 19 | 1874 |
| Trevor Cone | 0.57 | 199 | 1527 |
| Eric Cole | -1.27 | 73 | 1760 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | -1.16 | 81 | 1747 |
| Anders Albertson | 0.65 | 202 | 1517 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | -1.28 | 71 | 1761 |
| Tyson Alexander | 0.37 | 190 | 1552 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | -0.81 | 116 | 1702 |
| Nick Dunlap | 0.13 | 183 | 1583 |
| Luke Clanton | -1.87 | 32 | 1837 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | -1.41 | 63 | 1779 |
| Chandler Phillips | -0.86 | 112 | 1709 |
| Alejandro Tosti | -0.10 | 173 | 1612 |
| Mac Meissner | -0.62 | 134 | 1679 |
| Jake Knapp | -1.04 | 92 | 1731 |
| Neal Shipley | -1.15 | 83 | 1745 |
| Max Greyserman | -1.85 | 35 | 1834 |
| Pierceson Coody | -0.64 | 132 | 1681 |
| Patrick Fishburn | -0.97 | 100 | 1723 |
| Trace Crowe | -0.16 | 171 | 1619 |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.09 | 182 | 1588 |
| Kevin Dougherty | 0.40 | 192 | 1548 |
| Joe Highsmith | -0.84 | 113 | 1706 |
| Rico Hoey | -0.82 | 114 | 1704 |
| Hayden Springer | -0.92 | 107 | 1716 |
| Wilson Furr | 0.45 | 195 | 1542 |
| Ryan McCormick | 0.20 | 187 | 1575 |
| Tom Whitney | -0.08 | 174 | 1610 |
| Blaine Hale | 0.95 | 206 | 1479 |
| Raul Pereda | 1.39 | 213 | 1424 |
| Ludvig Aberg | -2.33 | 12 | 1894 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 1.64 | 217 | 1392 |
| Ryan Gerard | 2.64 | 218 | 1265 |
