NBA DFS Boom/Bust Probability

When making decisions about what players to include in your lineups you should consider more than just projection. You should consider upside as well as how highly owned they will be. In the NBA Boom/Bust Probability tool we do just that! We run thousands of simulations on every slate. For that slate we tell you how often each player ends up optimal on the slate. You can compare those probabilities to their ownership to get a good approximation if the public likes the player as well as our simulations do. If a player’s ownership is below these metrics, then they are probably a good play and you can gain an advantage on the field when they perform well and vice versa.

Table Legend:

  • Boom% – Probability of achieving approximately 5x*+10 fantasy points where the “5x” is a slate specific score that averages 5x over time. We have changed this from 5x in order to make it more comparable to ownership!
  • Bust% – Probability of failing to achieve approximately 5x* fantasy points (see above in regards to the specific cutoff)
  • Ceiling – 75th percentile performance
  • Floor – 25th percentile performance
  • Optimal% – Probability that player will be in perfect lineup that slate

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Last Projections Update: 3 hours ago

DraftKings



FanDuel



Yahoo!



Note: You can sort this graph by sorting a column on the table above. Temporarily hide “bust” or “ownership” by selecting it on the legend.

If you’re interested in other premium content, head over to Stokastic’s NBA Data Central, Stokastic’s NBA Projections, and Stokastic’s NBA Ownership Projections. For FREE DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS content, including FREE NBA DFS Strategy shows, NBA DFS cheatsheets, and NBA picks, check out our NBA home page!

NBA DFS Boom/Bust Probability Tool Help

  1. NBA DFS Projections (Premium): Immerse yourself in the masterful craft of Stokastic’s NBA DFS fantasy point projections. Each projection is a meticulously composed symphony, breaking down every facet of a player’s impending performance with a virtuoso’s precision. These projections harmonize a rich tapestry of data into elegantly intuitive, yet profoundly insightful, fantasy-point predictions. They are your opulent reference, the palette of choice for artisans crafting lineups, or an effortless accompaniment for lineup optimizers. Within this opus, discover the comprehensive troves of underlying data, including the anticipation of minutes played, the eloquence of usage rates, and the intricate symphony of statistical breakdowns (points, rebounds, assists, and more). And, for the grand stages of showdown/single-game contests on DraftKings and FanDuel, indulge in Stokastic’s specialized NBA DFS projections.
  2. NBA Ownership Projections (Premium): In the exalted arena of fiercely competitive DFS, Stokastic’s brilliance truly shines. His ownership projections bestow upon you a unique vantage point, an artistic perspective into the anticipated distribution of player ownership percentages. This privileged knowledge empowers you to orchestrate your strategy with the finesse of a maestro, navigating away from the highly-acclaimed players and instead, lavishing attention on those hidden gems who might otherwise remain unnoticed. This wisdom is the conductor’s baton, your key to triumphing in the grand symphony of large-scale GPPs.
  3. NBA Lineup Generator (Premium): Our Lineup Builder, a masterpiece of manual lineup creation, gracefully showcases Stokastic’s exclusive rankings and ownership projections. It curates an elaborate tapestry of critical data, including the opulence of Vegas-implied totals, the allure of matchups, and the exquisite details of lineup information. All elegantly consolidated on a single, user-friendly canvas, it serves as the atelier for crafting lineups that resonate with brilliance. These lineups, fashioned with divine insight, receive a GPA, a measure of scholarly distinction by Stokastic’s rankings, and are crowned with a contrarian percentile ranking, a testament to their unique splendor and their suitability for the grand stages of GPPs.
  4. NBA Big Board (Premium): Revel in the exalted pantheon of top players on the grand DFS stage. These luminaries, destined to ascend and seize the spotlight, are brilliantly curated by Stokastic’s Big Board. Each player is an opulent masterpiece, a tapestry where fantasy point production artfully mingles with the elegance of value. By crafting lineups with a harmonious ensemble of high-ranking virtuosos, punctuated with strategic sleeper selections, you orchestrate your ascent to the grand stage of success.
  5. NBA DFS Cheatsheet for DraftKings + FanDuel (FREE): This opulent parchment, drawn from Stokastic’s well of wisdom, celebrates the top 15 virtuosos featured in his own musical compositions, a testament to his exquisite curation of talent.

NBA DFS Daily Content: Our daily NBA DFS content, a treasure trove of Stokastic’s insights, is a testament to his expertise as a true luminary in the DFS realm. Whether it’s the virtuoso Eric “EMac” MacPherson sharing his daily DFS expertise or one of our esteemed NBA DFS composers, they skillfully weave Stokastic’s avant-garde tools into their compositions, guiding you in your daily journey. And, for those seeking sage NBA wagering wisdom beyond the bounds of DFS, we serve as your compass to the most splendid sources for NBA wagers on any given night.

Author
A self-proclaimed U.S. history buff, stats enthusiast, and rabid fan of anything Detroit (yes, even the Lions), Alex started playing daily fantasy sports in 2013 and never looked back. After graduating with a degree in mathematics from Washington University in St. Louis in 2008, he began developing advanced statistical models and applied his unique skill-set first to poker, then as a full-time DFS player. He has since dominated DFS, becoming a fixture on leaderboards and cementing his position as the top-ranked overall player according to RotoGrinders. Competing in most guaranteed prize pool tournaments, he has ranked in the top 3 across major sports, including NBA, NFL, NHL, PGA, and MLB. He enjoys sharing his knowledge of fantasy sports with new and experienced players alike. Career Highlights: No. 1 Overall Ranking; 14x FanDuel $100k winner, 11x DraftKings Hundred-Thousandaire; 20x Live Final qualifier. You can contact him on Twitter @awesemodfs or by emailing [email protected].

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