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College Football DFS: Bowl Projections & CFB Picks | Tuesday, 1/4/2022

Matt Gajewski



Tuesday’s college football bowl game schedule features a single game on DraftKings and FanDuel between LSU and Kansas State. This college football bowl game projection article will provide a DFS breakdown and look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out Awesemo’s projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into this week’s iteration of the CFB DFS picks for today’s bowl game matchup.

CFB DFS Picks: College Football Bowl Picks & Predictions

Texas Bowl: Kansas State vs. LSU

Kansas State (26.25 Implied Team Total)

Pass Rate: 44.39% (84th)

Play/Game: 57.5 (130th)

Kansas State enters this game with a 7-5 record, but a 4-5 record within the Big 12. This team battled injury throughout most of 2021 and played to a single digit margin of defeat in three of their losses. As a team, the Wildcats prefer to attack the run, while implementing the slowest offense in the country. Fortunately, they return their starting quarterback Skylar Thompson ($16,200), who battled injury for most of the year. Thompson finished with negative six yards rushing, which came as a massive surprise. In his first three seasons with Kansas State, Thompson accumulated 1,045 yards rushing. Thompson certainly has the mobility, but it remains to be seen whether he will use it. As a passer, Thompson suffers from low volume. He averages just 206 yards passing per game on 23 attempts. Fortunately, LSU plays poor pass and run defense, potentially opening the door for elevated efficiency. Overall, he a safer play with limited upside in this low volume offense.

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At running back stud Deuce Vaughn ($19,200) will play in this game. Vaughn registered 1,263 yards rushing and 471 yards receiving on 23.1 touches per game. Extremely involved as a pass catcher, Vaughn’s 64 targets led the team and his 471 yards receiving only trailed Phillip Brooks ($8,100) by three yards. Overall, Vaughn is the highest projected player on the slate. Still, his salary is exorbitant and rosters with him in the captain position will be making sacrifices elsewhere. Either way, Vaughn cannot be faded with his volume.

At receiver Kansas State funnels most of their targets through Brooks and Malik Knowles ($11,400). Brooks finished with 474 yards on 56 targets, while Knowles checked in with 399 yards on 40 targets. On a per game basis, Brooks’ 39.5 yards also edged Knowles 33.3 yards. Brooks is cheaper and more involved, making him the better play without considering ownership. Behind them, Landry Weber ($4,200) and Tyrone Howell ($3,000) split time at the WR3 position. Weber has 21 targets on the year to Howell’s 14. Kansas State also uses two tight ends in Sammy Wheeler ($5,700) and Daniel Imatorbhebhe ($3,300). On the year, Wheeler has 20 targets, while Imatorbhebhe has 16. Imatorbhebhe has 279 yards receiving, which leads this group. However, little separates these ancillary options in terms of opportunity, making them all pure GPP plays.

LSU (21.25 Implied Team Total)

Pass Rate: 53.62% (27th)

Play/Game: 72.9 (40th)

Finishing the season 6-6, it is a miracle this LSU team even reach bowl eligibility after a disastrous season. True to form the Tigers dealt with multiple injuries and transfers, while trying to run an up-tempo pass heavy offense. Max Johnson left the program, leaving Garrett Nussmeier ($14,400) in line to start. Inexplicably LSU already allowed Nussmeier to play in four games and now wants the NCAA to honor his redshirt even if he plays in this game. In a limited sample, Nussmeier played horrific football. He somehow turned five sacks into negative-46 yards, while failing to offset even a little of these negative plays with rushing production. He has also completed just 50.9% of his passes for 5.8 yards per attempt. Still, Nussmeier is a freshman playing in a pass friendly scheme. Even without efficiency, raw volume should propel him to a usable DFS scores here. He is one of the cheaper viable captains.

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At running back Tyrion Davis-Price opted to forgo his final collegiate game to prepare for the draft. LSU also did not list Armoni Goodwin or Tre Bradford on their depth chart. Instead they listed Corey Kiner ($5,100) as the starter after working as a change of pace to Davis-Price down the stretch. Kiner has 270 yards rushing on 65 carries this year, while seeing three targets in the pass game. Behind him, LSU listed Josh Williams ($1,500) and Corren Norman ($1,500). Williams is the better bet for change of pace work after seeing at least a single touch in each of the last three games. Norman has one carry on the year and appears to be a distant third in this backfield. Kansas State only allows 3.7 yards per rush attempt, but LSU may elect to increase their run rate with an inexperienced quarterback under center.

At receiver LSU lost its alpha Kayshon Boutte to injury much earlier this season. Since then, they have also lost Deion Smith, Koy Moore, and Trey Palmer to the transfer portal. Those losses should not be too impactful with only Palmer playing any significant snaps down the stretch. Overall, this group will now be led by Jaray Jenkins ($12,600) and tight end Jack Bech ($9,600). Bech leads the team with 489 yards on 67 targets, while Jenkins ranks second with 479 yards on 52 targets. On top of better efficiency, Jenkins has also out-targeted Beck 25-22 over LSU’s last four games. However, due to a sharp difference in price, Bech looks like a superior price-adjusted play. Behind them, Malik Nabers ($10,200) and Brian Thomas ($8,700) should operate as the WR2 and WR3. Nabers has 400 yards on 42 targets, while Thomas checks in with 344 yards on 38 targets. Thomas battled injury down the stretch, so the pricing gap on these two should not be this wide. Overall, Bech and Thomas look like the best price-adjusted plays, while Jenkins has the safest role in the offense.

Check out Awesemo college football betting experts Ben Rasa and Matt Gajewski breaking down
the entire 2021 College Football Bowl Game Schedule and giving their predictions, best betting picks and parlays.

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Looking for more college football DFS picks for today and DraftKings CFB DFS picks? Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the college football DFS ownership projections. Check out our industry-leading DFS CFB projections for this week.

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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