The UFC is heading to San Diego with a bantamweight main event with Marlon Vera vs. Dominick Cruz. Something to keep in mind when constructing MMA DFS lineups, the octagon size will be back to 30-foot. Which means, the expected finish rate will drop from 56.3% in the 25-foot cage to 43.9% in the 30-foot cage. Below are some MMA DFS pick and analysis with the help of Stokastic’s UFC expert projections. Let’s see what’s on tap for UFC San Diego and find some of the best UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
UFC San Diego: Vera vs. Cruz MMA DFS Picks
Top-End Pick: Josh Quinian | DraftKings: $9,100, FanDuel: $19
Quinian brought the UFC president to his feet on the Dana White’s Contender Series, by finishing Logan Urban in 47 seconds via knockout. This continued Quinian’s streak of 100% finishes in his MMA career so far. Quinian is explosive, fast and an extremely aggressive fighter. His punches are thrown with power and finishing intent, and he does load up on them, but his speed will cancel out the telegraphing. According to our UFC DFS projections, Quinian has a 43.9% chance of being in the top six on this card, and also has 71% win odds with a 53% chance for a knockout. According to the model, he has the second-highest chance of ending up in the optimal MMA DFS lineup today.
Mid-Priced Pick: David Onama | DraftKings: $8,600, FanDuel: $21
Onama entered the UFC surrounded with a ton of hype. He has the skillset and natural ability that can end the no matter where the fight takes place — on the feet or on the canvas. Onama is coming into this matchup on a two-fight winning streak, finishing Gabriel Benitez via first-round knockout, and submitting Garrett Armfield. He has 75% win odds and a 52% chance for a knockout in Stokastic UFC DFS projections, while the Top Fighters Tool gives him 42.5% chance of being in the top six on this card.
Mid-Priced Pick: Marlon Vera | DraftKings: $8,500, FanDuel: $22
Vera is currently riding a three-fight winning streak, with a unanimous decisions wins over Davey Grant, Rob Font, and a knockout over Frankie Edgar. He is a slick kickboxer with big power in his hands, and he is also dangerous grappler with a black belt in BJJ. I expect Vera will use his jab, low kicks, knees and elbows to keep Dominick Cruz reeling backwards and off balance. Vera has a 50.4% chance of being in the top six on the card, while Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections give him 68% win odds. According to the model, he is the fighter most likely to end up in the optimal UFC DFS lineup today.
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Value Pick: Priscila Cachoeira | DraftKings: $7,800, FanDuel: $10
Cachoeira is a reckless fighter, that will always pose a threat until the fight is over. She will fight from a grounded stance and throw big shots in hopes of inflicting damage to her opponent. There is risk in rostering Cachoeira, but could pay off nicely with a knockout over Ariane Lipski, who has been knocked out three times in her career. Cachoeira has a 34% win odds, according to our MMA DFS projections. With Cachoeira coming in at 18% ownership, rostering her comes with a bit of leverage as well.
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