The UFC is live at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. UFC 277 is packed full of MMS DFS goodness today, with two title fights Julianna Pena vs. Amanda Nunes for the bantamweight title and Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France for the flyweight title. Below are some MMA DFS picks and analysis with the help of Stokastic’s UFC expert projections. Let’s see what’s on tap for UFC 277 and find some of the best UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
UFC 277 : Pena vs. Nunes MMA DFS Picks
Top-End Pick: Michael Morales | DraftKings: $9,500 , FanDuel: $22
Morales had been dubbed the hottest prospect in the welterweight division ahead of his fight with Trevin Giles, and he did not disappoint, winning via TKO in his UFC debut. Morales was originally scheduled to fight Ramiz Brahimaj, but Brahimaj withdrew from the bout. Now, Morales will be fighting Adam Fugitt, who is stepping up on short notice. I expect Morales will come with heavy pressure and pick Fugitt apart early and find the finish. The Top Fighters Tool gives Morales 41.1% chance of being in the top six on this card, and Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections give him 85% win odds. According to the model he has the third highest chance of ending up in the optimal today. For UFC DFS lineups today, Morales is a solid in all formats.
Mid-Priced Pick: Alexandre Pantoja | DraftKings: $8,700 , FanDuel: $19
Pantoja was offered a title shot against Brandon Moreno at UFC 269 but turned it down as he still was not fully recovered. He is coming into this matchup off an impressive second-round submission victory over Brandon Royval in August of last year, which won him Performance of the Night. Pantoja is a dangerous fighter with 17 finishes in 24 wins, with only three of his fights going the distance. He has 64% win odds and a 31% chance of a knockout in Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections, while the Top Fighters Tool gives him a 29.2% chance of being in the top six on this card. With Pantoja coming in a 26 percent ownership and 29% top-six odds, rostering him comes with bit of leverage on the field as well.
Mid-Priced Pick: Matthew Semelsberger | DraftKings: $8,600 , FanDuel: $19
Semelsberger is coming into this matchup off a unanimous decision win over AJ Fletcher back in March. He is averaging 5.01 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.50 per minute. Semelsberger is considered one of the most dangerous strikers in the welterweight division, but he can put himself in awkward positions in his fights due to poor judgment. I expect Semelsberger heavy hands and pure power will get the job done, on his way to finding another knockout win. Semelsberger has 60% win odds and a 30% chance of a knockout in Stokastic’s MMA DFS projections.
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Value Pick: Rafael Alves | DraftKings: $7,200 , FanDuel: $10
Alves is coming off the biggest win of his career, with a submission win over Marc Diakiese in 2021. He is a submission specialist, capable of ending the fight via tap at any second. Alves is big, strong, athletic and has big power in his hands, that can drop his opponent and once down he goes in for the finish on the mat. For DFS lineups today, Alves has risk due to Drew Dober’s durability, but if he drops Dober, we could see another submission victory for Alves. Stokastic’s projections give Alves 34% win odds, but at just $7200 he makes for a solid value play. We also have him at 22% ownership and 27% optimal odds on DraftKings, which means on top of that value, you’re also gaining some leverage.
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