UFC Fight Night DFS Picks and Value Plays: Tai Tuivasa is Underpriced

Today, the UFC returns after a week off and will be live from Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. Featuring what should be an electrifying welterweight main event Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland. Then, on to the co-headliner which should be full of action Bryan Barberena vs. Rafael Dos Anjos. Below are some MMA DFS picks and analysis with the help of Stokastic’s . Let’s see what’s on tap for UFC Fight Night and find some of the best MMA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.

UFC Fight Night Picks: Thompson vs. Holland DFS Plays

Top-End Pick: Jonathan Pearce | DraftKings: $9,500, FanDuel: $22

Jonathan Pearce has found success after dropping down in weight class to featherweight. He has rattled off four straight wins three via finish and one decision. Pearce will be the quicker striker and will mix in takedowns showing of his strong top game. He seems to have fundamental aggression when stepping inside the octagon. Pearce will strike with volume, mixing in kickboxing and looking to take his opponent to the mat. He seems to never take his foot off the gas pedal. According to Stokastic’s he is the top fighter on this card with 80.9%-win odds and a 50.3% chance for a knockout.

Mid-Priced Pick: Natan Levy | DraftKings: $8,900, FanDuel: $19

Natan Levy trains and lives in Las Vegas. He entered the UFC through Dana White’s Contender Series in November 2020, submitting undefeated Shaheen Santana with a nasty arm tringle in round 3. He comes from a strong karate background so expect him to use it to set up takedowns and get this fight to the canvas. Levy has three submissions and four decisions in his career. He is a grappler by trade and is also dangerous on the feet. Expect Levy to pressure Genaro Valdez and drag him to the canvas testing his suspect gas tank. Stokastic’s give him 64.9%-win odds and a 45.4% chance for a knockout.

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Mid-Priced Pick: Kevin Holland | DraftKings: $8,500, FanDuel: $21

This should be a fun fight between two high-level martial artists. Stephen Thompson will look to keep this fight standing, while Kevin Holland should test his takedown defense and look to get this fight to the mat early. Expect Holland to take the reins and make this a fun, exciting fight on his way to a submission victory against the fading Thompson. The Top Fighters Tool projects him for 36.3% chance on being a top-6 fighter on this card with 62.6% win odds.

Value Pick: Tai Tuivasa | DraftKings: $7,700, FanDuel: $10

Tai Tuivasa is a well-rounded fighter with nasty calf-kicks that can slow his opponents down. He will have the edge in experience and should be able to take Sergei Pavlovich off his game with damaging leg kicks early. Tuivasa will have the power advantage as well and should be able to land damaging shots while also immobilizing Pavlovich with his cracking calf kicks. There is risk rostering Tuivasa, but his $7,700 price tag on DraftKings could pay off nicely with a first-round finish. Stokastic gives him 33.4%-win odds.

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