College football Week 5 continues with a three-game Thursday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 5 DFS picks and projections for Thursday, Sept. 28.
CFB Week 5 DFS Picks and Projections | Thursday, Sept. 28
Quarterback
Austin Reed ($8,800): Austin Reed has faced a difficult slate of competition and has had banged-up receivers to start the year. Reed averaged 339 passing yards per game and 224 total rushing yards last year. Reed only has 44 rushing yards this season while averaging 267 through the air. However, this week’s matchup should be more favorable. Western Kentucky is a 5.5-point favorite over a Middle Tennessee State defense allowing 8.9 yards per pass in a game with a 60 total. This gives Reed the highest floor/ceiling combination on the slate.
E.J. Warner ($5,800): After a tough slate to start the year, Temple enters a more favorable conference schedule starting with Tulsa. The Owls come in as 3.5-point underdogs in a game with a 55 total. Temple ranks 20th in pace and throws 67.8% of the time. While E.J. Warner isn’t mobile, he averages 39.5 pass attempts and 251.8 passing yards per game. Tulsa allows over 10 yards per pass attempt, providing a solid matchup for Warner.
Logan Smothers ($7,100): Logan Smothers took over for Zion Webb last week and should continue to start. Jacksonville State is a 6.5-point favorite over Sam Houston State, and Smothers plays a key role in the run game. Last week, he handled 21 designed attempts on top of his 15.7 pass attempts per game.
Running Back
Malik Jackson ($4,500): Jacksonville State recently lost Ron Wiggins, consolidating opportunity to Malik Jackson. Without Wiggins, Jackson saw 21 carries and four targets last week. Jacksonville State could return Anwar Lewis this week after warming up in Week 4. However, Jacksonville State still likely will use a committee, keeping Jackson in play. Either way, Jackson provides a solid price-adjusted projection.
Anthony Watkins ($6,100): After using a committee to start the year, Anthony Watkins has emerged as Tulsa’s top rusher. Last game, he handled 23 carries and saw one target in the pass game. His route rate also jumped to 42% last week, putting him squarely in play for cash games.
Jaiden Credle ($4,800): Middle Tennessee State runs a running back by committee, but Jaiden Credle leads this group with 34 touches over Frank Peasant at 31. He also has a 30% route share, which should keep him involved in all game scripts. Both Credle and Peasant can be fired up in GPPs.
Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s’ college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now!
Wide Receiver
Malachi Corley ($6,700): After starting the year injured, Malachi Corley has 13 and 15 targets over the last two games. He averages 83 yards per game in the best offense on the slate.
Devan Williams ($4,900): While Tulsa ranks 43rd in pace, injuries to the quarterback position have forced the team to take a run-heavy approach. With that said, they will pass in the right environments, putting Marquis Shoulders and Devan Williams into play. Williams’ 21.7% target share narrowly trails Shoulders’ 22.7%.
Elijah Metcalf ($4,000): Despite coming in as an underdog, Middle Tennessee State still ranks 54th in pace and passes 55.5% of the time. Elijah Metcalf has emerged as the WR1 for this offense behind a 13-target outing last week. Averaging 48 yards per game, Metcalf also has an 81.8% route rate.
Zae Baines ($3,600): Top receiver Dante Wright enters this game with the questionable tag, potentially providing more opportunity to other receivers. The primary beneficiaries would be Amad Anderson Jr. and Zae Baines. Baines now averages seven targets and 36.8 yards per game while participating in 96% of the routes. Any of the starting Temple receivers can be used across DFS formats.
K.D. Hutchinson ($3,400): Western Kentucky has multiple receivers injured, including Michael Mathison, Blue Smith and Dalvin Smith. This has allowed K.D. Hutchinson to play more of late. His route rate jumped to 90% last week, resulting in four targets. He and Craig Burt Jr. make sense as values if those receivers remain out.
