With March Madness fully underway, the tournament begins with a pair of play-in games on Wednesday, March 15. In addition to the First Four games, three NIT games round out the CBB DFS slate. This column will dive into each game and highlight the top March Madness DFS targets with the help of Stokastic’s CBB DFS projections.
March Madness DFS Advice & First Four DFS Projections | March 15
Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Texas Southern
The second 16-seed play-in consists of Fairleigh Dickinson taking on Texas Southern for the right to take on Purdue. Texas Southern is a 2-point favorite over Fairleigh Dickinson in a game with a 147 total. Overall, this game sets up well for DFS in a high scoring environment.
Fairleigh Dickinson will be led by Grant Singleton and Demetre Roberts. Neither stand out as preferred plays at the guard position, but both should be considered for game stacks and contrarian builds. The top value play on the team looks like Joe Munden behind a 16.1% usage rate and $5,400 price tag. However, Munden has played 23, 27 and 26 minutes in his last three games, leaving some volatility in his projection.
On the Texas Southern side, the Tigers also run a wide rotation. John Walker and Davon Barnes lead the team in terms of pricing. However, PJ Henry comes in with the highest projection at $6,600. Henry played 35, 26 and 34 minutes in Texas Southern’s last three games. He even fouled out of the 26 minute game, somewhat squashing any minute concerns. Lastly, Kolby Granger could offer some viability as a punt option at $3,600, but better options exist on the slate.
Nevada vs. Arizona State
Playing for the right to face TCU in this First Four game, Arizona State will take on Nevada as a 2-point favorite in a game with a modest 134 total. On the Nevada side, the Wolf Pack will play a fairly tight distribution of minutes. Their usage leader Kenan Blackshear stands out as a potential spend up option at $7,800. He accounts for a 20.6% shot rate, 15.8% rebound rate and 17.8% assist rate in the last three games. Beyond him, Jarod Lucas and Darrion Williams will both push for 35 minutes as well. Lucas is a shot dependent guard at an elevated price, while Williams plays a passive game dependent on rebounds. Finding a way to Blackshear makes more sense outside of larger tournaments. The rest of the lineup has been muddled by the return of Hunter McIntosh.
Arizona State plays a nine-man rotation that can be tricky for DFS. The minutes are not always consistent either. However, Desmond Cambridge leads the team with a 20.2% usage rate and played 31, 34 and 30 minutes over the last three games. After a mid-season suspension, DJ Horne has also returned to a consistent role of 33, 34 and 34 minutes in the last three games. Both guards are fairly shot reliant, but Horne even more so than Cambridge. Frankie Collins operates as the main ball handler, but his minutes have dipped to 27, 23 and 29 in the last three games. Devan Cambridge, Warren Washington and even Jamiya Neal on occasion play in the mid 20’s in terms of minutes, providing large field GPP options and nothing more.
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UCF vs. Florida
A middling NIT game, Florida sits as a 2-point favorite over UCF in a game with a 143 total. UCF should have a somewhat reduced rotation with the injury to Jayhlon Young. This team will be led by future NBA big man Taylor Hendricks. Hendricks brings plenty of double-double equity with his 24% shot rate and 27.6% rebound rate in UCF’s last three games. With young out, Ithiel Horton and Darius Johnson should also play a few more minutes than normal. Both come in with usage rates above 16% and offer solid value in the mid-range, priced just below CJ Kelly. Last, Michael Durr has slowly been working his way back from injury at $5,500. Durr has played 25, 28 and 22 minutes in the last three games, but he does account for over 19% of the rebounds in that span.
Florida lost Colin Castleton down the stretch this year. Their best player in his absence has been Riley Kugel, who plays well over 30 minutes and accounts for a 22.8% shot rate, 15.3% rebound rate and 14.3% assist rate in the last three games. Kyle Lofton is the next most consistent guard. While he lacks the overall usage, his minutes are far more consistent than Will Richard or Myreon Jones. With that said, gambling on a $5,000 Jones isn’t the craziest idea due to price. Beyond that, Florida distributes minutes at the whims of the coaching staff. Kowacie Reeves offers punt appeal, but he’s played 26, 20 and 9 minutes in the last three games. This is a volatile situation beyond the top three or four options.
Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
The best game on the slate for DFS, Cincinnati is a 5-point favorite over Virginia Tech in a game with a 151 total. Virginia Tech typically plays one of the tighter rotations in the ACC. Led by Justyn Mutts and Grant Basile in the interior, both offer strong pay up options. Specifically, Mutts has an 18.1% shot rate, 25.5% rebound rate and 31% assist rate in the last three games. Sean Pedulla is also available for a slightly discounted price tag.
He does have an 18% shot rate and 16.7% assist rate in the last three games. Hunter Cattoor also plays almost every minute for those looking at GPP options. Finally, MJ Collins plays 30+ minutes routinely, but unfortunately, we aren’t awarded points for cardio. With that said, this slate doesn’t have a ton of value options making him somewhat safe. There is a remote risk that Rodney Rice takes his spot (which should have already happened).
On the Cincinnati side, Landers Nolley will take on his former team with a strong 26.3% shot rate, 11.2% rebound rate and 14.3% assist rate in the last three games. This gives him slightly more value, compared to teammate David Dejulius, who can be considered as a GPP pivot. Mika Adams-Woods also offers GPP viability as a $5,800 price take. Fortunately, his minutes are secure after playing 31, 32 and 35 minutes over the last three games.
The ultimate GPP play is Viktor Lakhin, who has played reduced minutes down the stretch due to injury. When healthy, the big man brings elite double-double equity. However, we haven’t seen those minutes in quite some time with Ody Oguama playing well behind him. Dan Skillings will play 18 to 20 minutes at $3,800 and could be a potential value option.
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UC Irvine vs. Oregon
A solid overall game environment, Oregon takes on UC Irvine as a 7-point favorite in a game with a 146.5 total. UC Irvine lost in their conference Championship to UC Santa Barbara. Unfortunately, they play one of the worst rotations on the slate. Dawson Baker and DJ Davis both possess usage rates north of 19%. However, both are still fairly shot reliant. However, no one on this team comes in with an expensive price tag. Beyond these two, no one has even touched 30 minutes in UC Irvine’s last three games. Even the potential value plays in Dean Keeler, Pierre Cockrell and Justin Hohn lack the rates of viable punts.
As for Oregon, this team will tighten minutes when pushed in games. N’Faly Dante leads the team in pricing and double-double equity. However, Will Richardson and Jermaine Couisnard have already been rules out of this game. This makes Rivaldo Soares, Keeshawn Barthelemy and Quincy Guerrier three of the top value options on the slate. Even Nate Bittle could work his way into a few extra minutes.
Editor’s note: Whether looking for other March Madness DFS projections, First Four DFS projections, or the best college basketball bets on the market, you can find solid information on those with this college basketball betting tool.
