March Madness DFS Advice: Round 2 of the NCAA Tournament (March 18)

With March Madness fully underway, the tournament continues with a full 8 game slate on Saturday, March 18. This column will dive into each game and highlight the top March Madness DFS picks and value plays to target with the help of Stokastic’s CBB DFS projections.

March Madness DFS Picks: NCAA Tournament Round 2 DFS

Alabama vs. Maryland

Alabama currently holds an 8.5 point advantage over Maryland in a game with a 143.5 total. Star Brandon Miller ($10.0k) has been injured and held below 20 minutes last game. This was planned, but it still leaves his ceiling in doubt. A more competitive game should mean more minutes for Jahvon Quinerly ($6.5k), Mark Sears ($6.3k), Noah Clowney ($7.7k), and Charles Bediako ($5.3k). Taking at least one of these players makes sense with a preference to Quinery, due to his peripheral upside.

Maryland has a usage dominator in Jahmir Young ($7.8k), who battled fouls in Maryland’s opening tournament matchup. He is a strong buy low here behind a 20.3% usage rate. Donta Scott ($6.5k) is also too cheap with a 19.9% shot rate, 17.9% rebound rate, and 14% assist rate in the last three games. Hakim Hart ($6.7k) and Julian Reese ($7.8k) enter the pay up to be contrarian category, while Don Carey ($4.3) offers salary saving on a pretty efficient slate in terms of pricing.

San Diego State vs. Furman

A middling game environment, San Diego State is a 5.5 point favorite over Furman. San Diego State literally runs a nine-man rotation with little minute differentiation. Matt Bradley ($6.0k) is their best player, but he is unlikely to hit 30 minutes. Darrion Trammell ($4.5k) and Lamont Butler ($5.2k) are slightly better price adjusted plays, but this is a team to be careful with.

Conversely, Furman has a pair of usage dominators in Mike Bothwell ($6.9k) and Jalen Slawson ($8.2k). Bothwell has the higher overall usage, but Slawson provides more peripheral upside. This is a tough matchup against a 27th ranked San Diego State defense, but the team total indicates that we should have some interest in these studs. JP Pegues ($5.6k), Marcus Foster ($5.4k) and Garrett Hien ($4.9k) round out the man minute getters. Pegues has the best rates and could be used as a value option here.

Kansas vs. Arkansas

A solid game environment, Kansas is a 3.5 point favorite over Arkansas in a game with a 142.5 total. Jalen Wilson ($9.4k) isn’t expensive enough behind his 21% usage rate. Gradey Dick ($7.5k) and Dajuan Harris ($7.0) are both a bit overpriced, but they possess strong ceilings in a good matchup. KJ Adams ($6.0) and Kevin McCullar ($6.6k) round out the starting five, but both carry more concern due to a lack of minutes. McCullar due to injury, Adams due to talent and an inability to keep his hands to himself.

Arkansas runs a four-guard rotation consisting of Ricky Council ($6.1k), Anthony Black ($7.3k), Davonte Davis ($5.8k), and Nick Smith ($6.8k). Three of these guards will play 35+ minutes and one will dip below 20. Who depends on how the coach feels on a specific day. With that said, the minutes can be elite here and deserve consideration. The forward marry-go-round consists of Makhi Mitchell ($5.8k) and Jordan Walsh ($5.0k). Both could be benched at any time and have been benched in the past.

Auburn vs. Houston

A subpar game environment, Auburn is a 5.5 point underdog to Houston in a game with a 132 total. Auburn’s Johni Broome ($9.0k) leads the team with a 19.2% usage rate, but he seldom eclipses 32 minutes. Houston plays elite defense, making Broome a tough click at his price. The same goes for shot dependent Wendell Green ($7.0k). Jaylin Williams ($6.3k) and Allen Flanigan ($6.4k) are also a bit expensive with lacking usage in a poor game environment. KD Johnson ($5.0) is a rollercoaster in terms of minutes, making him a tough click as well.

Marcus Sasser ($8.9k) is expected to play here, but at what capacity? Emanuel Sharp ($3.4k) and Terrance Arceneaux ($4.0) pick up extra minutes when Sasser rides the bench, which doesn’t look likely here. From there, J’Wan Roberts ($8.3k), Jamal Shead ($8.4k), Jarace Walker ($7.5k), and Tramon Mark ($7.0k) will all play 30+ minutes. Shead will run point guard, with solid rates across the board. Roberts has a monster 35.7% rebound rate in Houston’s last three games. Walker possesses double-double and block upside, while Mark does a whole lot of nothing on the court. Roberts, Shead, and Walker should all be GPP considerations here.

Penn State vs. Texas

A middling total overall, Penn State is a 5.5 point underdog to Texas in a game with a 138.5 total. Penn State funnels most of their usage through Jalen Pickett ($10.1k). Pickett boasts a 24.3% shot rate, 22.5% rebound rate, and 48.2% assist rate in the Penn State offense. He also plays every minute. From there, Seth Lundy ($7.4), Andrew Funk ($5.1k), and Camren Wynter ($4.7k all play 30+ minutes. Wynter is a wind-sprinter, but Lundy and Funk actually possess the requisite usage to target at their prices.

Texas also has a usage dominator themselves in Marcus Carr ($7.7k). Carr will play almost every minute with a 20.8% usage rate, which includes a 21.1% shot rate and 25% assist rate. Timmy Allen ($6.4k) returned from injury and played 20 minutes in Round 1, but Texas also won by 20 points. His return to the lineup also muddles the situation for Sir’Jabari Rice ($7.2k) and Dylan Disu ($6.8k), who took on elevated usage in his absence. From there, Tyrese Hunter ($4.9k) could be used as a potential value option after playing 37, 26, and 34 minutes.

Northwestern vs. UCLA

A poor DFS game, Northwestern is a 7.5 underdog to UCLA in a game with a 126.5 total. Northwestern is led by two usage dominators in Boo Buie ($8.0k) and Chase Audige ($6.8k). Both will play every minute with similar usage. However, this is a game to be careful with, due to the pitiful total. Behind them, Ty Berry ($5.1k) will play 30+ minutes and could be used as a value option. Brooks Barnhizer ($6.4k) will also play 30+ minutes, but he is priced in no man’s land for DFS.

UCLA hopes to return Adem Bona ($5.6k) after missing the opening round. His potential loss somewhat puts, Kenneth Nwuba ($3.2k), but he still only reached 25 minutes last game. Jaime Jaquez ($9.6k) and Tyger Campbell ($7.9k) lead the team in usage and both are a bit expensive when compared with the others in their price range. David Singleton ($5.7k) also saw a significant price jump, making a worse value than the opening round of the tournament. Amari Bailey ($6.9k) rounds it all out with very little else to say. This is a game to limit exposure to overall.

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Missouri Princeton

A strong game environment overall, Missouri is a 6.5 point favorite over Princeton in a game with a 147.5 total. Most of Missouri’s usage flows through Kobe Brown ($8.5k) and D’Moi Hodge ($8.6k). Both have usage rates north of 17% and should find multiple paths to scoring against an inferior opponent. From there, minutes get significantly less secure. Noah Carter ($6.2k) and Nick Honor ($4.3k) are the most likely to push for 30 minutes. Honor in particular comes in as a potential value play on this slate.

Princeton has a usage monster in Tosan Evbuomwan. Tosan plays every single minute with an 18.7% shot rate, 15.8% rebound rate, and 35.4% assist rate. Behind him, Matt Allocco ($6.3k) and Caden Pierce ($7.6k) will also play every minute. Neither are particularly involved, but Pierce has a 28.6% rebound rate in the last three games. Ryan Langborg ($6.2k) will also play 30+ minutes, but Allocco and Pierce are slightly better price adjusted options.

Duke vs. Tennessee

A poor game environment overall, Duke is a four point favorite over Tennessee. While Tennessee does have some length, Duke still possesses an advantage inside. Led by Kyle Filipowski ($9.2k), the Duke big man should play more minutes here after a 23 point blowout in Round 1. He has a 20.4% shot rate and 23.1% rebound rate. Dereck Lively ($6.6k) and Mark Mitchell ($5.7k) are the other rotational bigs, but they don’t pop as much due to the awful total in the game. The same goes for guards Jeremy Roach ($6.5k) and Tyrese Proctor ($5.7k). This is a game to be careful with overall

On the Tennessee side, the Zakai Zeigler injury looms large here. Santiago Vescovi ($7.6k) should be contrarian as the usage leader. However, this game is still awful. From there, Jahmai Mashack ($4.8k) and Tyreke Key ($4.6k) are available as potential valu plays, but nothing else really stands out for Tennessee.

March Madness DFS and Legal gambling age is 21+ and in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

Matt Gajewski
Author
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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