UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi offers a great opportunity for UFC DFS, and Stokastic is here to analyze the card and make the most informed picks. In this article, we’ll delve deep into some of the key matchups on the card, explore the fighters’ strengths and weaknesses, and unleash the power of Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections to find the best Fight Night picks. Once again, fights lower down the card are the primary source of much of this week’s value, so let’s dive in and see who is popping ahead of Saturday’s event.
UFC Fight Night DFS Picks for Kara-France vs. Albazi Card
Victor Altamirano ($7,200)
Tim Elliott takes on Victor Altamirano as a -185 favorite. Elliott sits at 19-12-1 in his career, but he defeated Tagir Ulanbekov in his most recent bout in March of 2022. Likewise, Altamirano comes in on a two-fight winning streak after defeating Vinicius Salvador earlier this year. Overall, this fight projects for the best pace on the entire slate.
Elliott is an aggressive grappler who averages 3.73 takedowns per bout with 44% accuracy. Altamirano has been taken down at times during his UFC tenure, but he still boasts 74% takedown defense. If Elliott lands a takedown, Altamirano has shown to be a legitimate submission threat, with four of his wins coming via submission. That said, Altamirano has been almost as aggressive as Elliott to this point. He averages 6.15 significant strikes per minute and 2.47 takedowns himself. Elliott has been finished six times in his career and should be at a striking disadvantage. With multiple paths to victory in a fireworks fight, Altamirano stands out as one of the better value plays on the entire slate.
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Alex Caceres ($8,900)
For those wanting other uptempo, all-action fights, look no further than the co-main event. Alex Caceres takes on Daniel Pineda as a -175 favorite. Longtime UFC veteran Caceres enters this fight fresh off a knockout victory over Julian Erosa in December of last year. He has also won six of his last seven fights. His opponent, Pineda, also won his most recent bout against Tucker Lutz in March of this year.
Starting with Pineda, he has only gone to a decision five times across 42 professional fights. Within the UFC, he averages 3.32 significant strikes per minute, along with 1.47 takedowns per bout. However, he has been finished nine times and six by submission across his career. Caceres averages 4.16 significant strikes per minute and 0.57 takedowns per bout. With that said, he has been a lethal finisher. Caceres has four knockouts and seven submissions across 20 professional victories. As it stands, Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections give Caceres a 61.5% chance of winning this fight and a 36.2% chance of earning a finish. With other expensive fighters like Jared Gordon, Karine Silva, and Daniel Santos slightly more likely to earn a victory, Caceres could provide an ownership leverage point as well.
Daniel Santos ($9,200)
While Caceres could provide leverage on this slate, Santos still looks to be an elite value among the expensive fighters. In this matchup, Santos takes on Johnny Munoz as a -225 favorite. Santos comes into this fight 1-1 in the UFC, but he won his latest bout against John Castaneda last October. On the other side, Munoz also enters this fight fresh off a win against Liudvik Sholinian last November.
From a pacing perspective, this fight is above average according to Stokastic’s UFC DFS projections. Santos averages 4.82 significant strikes per minute and 1.23 takedowns per bout. Munoz has also been quite aggressive, averaging 3.69 significant strikes per minute and 2.32 takedowns per bout. Santos should have a clear striking advantage here, and Munoz has been finished via strikes once already in the UFC. Munoz is a submission threat, but Santos has yet to be submitted in his career. If Munoz cannot get this fight to the ground, Santos should have a clear path to victory.