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College Football DFS: Bowl Games Projections & CFB Picks | Saturday, 12/25/2021

Matt Gajewski



The 2021-22 college football bowl schedule has been released and we are embarking on postseason play. There is one game on today’s Christmas Day slate with Ball State taking on Georgia State in the Camellia Bowl, providing a showdown slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football bowl game projection article will provide a DFS breakdown and look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out Awesemo’s projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into this week’s iteration of the CFB DFS picks for today’s bowl game matchups.

CFB DFS Picks: College Football Bowl Projections

Camellia Bowl: Ball State vs Georgia State

Ball State (22.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 68.5 (80th)

Pass Rate – 51.26% (39th)

Entering this game with a 6-6 record, Ball State finished the regular season as one of the middling teams in the MAC. As an offense, Ball State runs a somewhat slow, pass heavy scheme. The Cardinals are quarterbacked by Drew Plitt ($16,500), who took a step back in 2021. Plitt only completed 60.5% of his passes for 6.2 yards per attempt, both of which marked two year lows. Plitt’s reduced efficiency was reflected in his 187.2 passing yards per game on 30.5 attempts. Plitt is somewhat mobile with 150 cumulative rushing yards, but his upside has been capped this year. Plitt actually eclipsed 300 passing yard just one time this year, while falling below 200 passing yards on eight occasions. At his elevated price, Plitt looks like a solid floor/limited ceiling flex play here.

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At running back, Carson Steele ($13,500) has completely moved ahead of Will Jones ($5,100) in this backfield. Steele averages 68.7 rushing and 9.8 receiving yards per game on 15.6 touches. However, Steele has seen at least 21 touches in four straight games for Ball State. This coincides directly with a role reduction for Jones. Jones averages 8.4 touches per game on the year, but he hasn’t seen more than five touches in any of Ball State’s most recent games. Overall, Steele is a solid price-adjusted play on this slate.

At receiver, Ball State has a condensed target share. Their alpha receiver, Justin Hall ($15,600) battled injury down the stretch and actually finished behind Jayshon Jackson ($10,200) in overall receiving yards. Hall averaged 55.1 yards per game on 7.4 targets, while Jackson checked in at 56.9 yards per game on 7.5 targets. It should be noted that Jackson has 26 combined targets in the final two games where Hall was hurt. One additional point in favor of Hall is the involvement in the running game. Hall has 37 carries for an additional 255 yards coming as a rusher. The WR3 in this offense is Yo’Heinz Tyler ($12,000). Interestingly, Tyler is more expensive than Jackson, despite averaging just 36.5 receiving yards per game on 6.8 targets. Tyler remains heavily involved, but he functions more as a possession receiver, ceding the big plays to Jackson and Hall. At tight end Cody Rudy ($1,500) is mislabeled as a running back. Rudy averages 7.8 yards per game on 2.3 targets. However, he is the stone minimum, meaning he could help jam multiple studs at other points in lineups. Hassan Littles ($1,500), Trevor Hohlt ($1,500), Jordan Williams ($1,500) and Jalen McGaughy ($2,700) all rotate onto the field for a handful of snaps, but they are nothing more than tournament fliers.

Georgia State (28.5 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 71.0 (56th)

Pass Rate – 36.53% (125th)

Finishing 7-5 in the Sun Belt, Georgia State impressively went 6-2 in conference. The Panthers played a difficult non-conference schedule, featuring Army, North Carolina, and Auburn, accouting for three of their losses. Overall, Georgia State will play slightly above average in terms of tempo. However, they are a bottom ten team in terms of pass rate in the entire country. At quarterback, Darren Grainger ($16,800) took over for Cornelious Brown this year. Grainger has solid mobility with 553 rushing yards on the year. He only averages 137.7 passing yards per game on 19.1 attempts, but his mobility still gives him a solid floor. Overall, Grainger is still extremely expensive with a questionable ceiling. He hasn’t eclipsed 230 passing yards in any game this year and he only reached 200 yards twice. He did log a single 100-yard rushing game, but ten of his games fell below 65 rushing yards. Like Plitt, Grainger provides a solid floor at his price.

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At running back, Georgia State uses a timeshare, but their elevated run rate mitigates some of that risk. Tucker Gregg ($9,300) leads this tandem with 77.7 yards per game on 14.9 touches. However, Gregg brings a stronger ceiling when playing from ahead. Gregg hasn’t seen fewer than 17 touches in any of  Georgia State’s last four games. Similarly, Jamyest Williams ($8,400) is also highly involved in the offense. Williams averages 67 yards per game on 10.1 touches. However, he hasn’t seen fewer than 11 touches in any of Georgia State’s last four games. In fact, he has reached at least 15 touches in three of those four. With Ball State allowing 178.9 rushing yards per game, both Gregg and Williams are underpriced here.

After dealing with some injuries at wide receiver throughout the year, Georgia State finally looks healthy. However, that has contributed to a timeshare at multiple positions. Sam Pinckney ($13,200) remains the only pass catcher with a locked in role. Pinckney averages 31.3 receiving yards per game on 4.8 targets, but he hasn’t seen fewer than five targets in any of Georgia State’s last four games. Pinckney will play on the boundary and he has participated in at least 81% of routes over the last six weeks. Opposite Pinckney, Georgia State has increasingly rotated Jamari Thrash ($5,400) and Ja’Cyais Credle ($3,000). Thrash and Credle account for a 56% and 58% route share on the season respectively. However, Thrash’s 447 receiving yards and 48 targets give him an edge over Credle’s 269 yards and 41 targets. Either way, both are fairly cheap connections to Grainger here. In the slot, Georgia State has rotated Cornelius McCoy ($11,100), Terrance Dixon ($7,200), and Robert Lewis ($1,500). McCoy previously played a large role for this team, but he now has six combined targets over the last three games. Dixon also played a larger role earlier in the season due to injuries. However, he hasn’t been targeted in two straight games. Compared to the other receivers all three of these options are overpriced. Finally, Georgia State uses both Roger Carter ($4,500) and Aubry Payne ($2,400) at tight end. Carter typically accounts for about 60% of snaps, while Payne checks in around 40. Carter averages 26.9 yards per game on 2.2 targets, while Payne checks in at 11.4 yards per game on 2.1 targets. Overall, both are fairly priced for their roles in this Georgia State passing attack.

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Check out Awesemo college football betting experts Ben Rasa and Matt Gajewski breaking down
the entire 2021 College Football Bowl Game Schedule and giving their predictions, best betting picks and parlays.

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Check out our industry-leading FanDuel CFB DFS projections. Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the CFB DFS ownership projections. Looking for more DFS college football picks today and DFS college football DraftKings picks?

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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