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CFB DFS: National Championship Alabama vs. Georgia Projections & College Football Picks | Monday, 1/10/2022

Matt Gajewski

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The College Football National Championship Game features a showdown slate on DraftKings and FanDuel with Alabama vs. Georgia. This college football National Championship Game projection article will provide a DFS breakdown and look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out Awesemo’s projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into this week’s iteration of the CFB DFS picks for the College Football National Championship Game.

CFB DFS Picks: National Championship Game Predictions

College Football National Championship: Alabama vs. Georgia

Alabama (24.75 Implied Team Total)

Pass Rate: 51.69% (39th)

Play/Game: 77.2 (13th)

Alabama enters the National Championship game fresh off a 27-6 dismantling of Cincinnati in semifinal. The Crimson Tide are 13-1 at this point with their only loss coming against Texas A&M where they out-gained the Aggies in total yardage. The season was not all success outside of that loss, however. Alabama also played Florida, LSU, Arkansas, and Auburn to single digits in narrow victories. Overall, this team plays extremely fast and embraces a pass first approach, benefiting quarterback Bryce Young ($15,900). In his first season as the starter, Young played well enough to earn Heisman honors. Young averaged 320.8 yards passing per game on 35.1 attempts. This included nine games above 300 yards, including Alabama’s first matchup against Georgia. Young diced up the elite Bulldogs’ secondary for 421 yards and three touchdowns. Interestingly, Young was recruited as a dual threat, but he only has 43 cumulative yards rushing on the year. Young has shown an increased willingness to scramble of late with 52 combined yards in Alabama’s last two games. From a DFS perspective, Young is the most expensive player on this slate with a solid chance of ending up as the top scorer. Lineups with Young will need to make sacrifices, but Captaining the Heisman winner is a solid strategy.

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At running back Alabama will lean on Brian Robinson ($14,700). Robinson carried 16 times for 55 scoreless yards when these teams met the first time. However, Robinson has at least 18 touches in each of Alabama’s last four games. On the year, Robinson averages 98.1 yards rushing and 20.6 receiving on 21.8 touches per game. With Roydell Williams and Jase McClellan injured, Alabama’s touch distribution has narrowed even further. Only Trey Sanders ($3,900) has touched the ball outside of Robinson. Sanders himself plays a change of pace role, averaging 6.9 touches per game. However, Sanders’ role ebbs and flows with Alabama’s margin of victory. If this game stays close, Robinson should handle a vast majority of the work and make for a solid contrarian Captain.

At receiver Alabama lost John Metchie to a torn ACL in the SEC Championship game. Jameson Williams ($15,300) already led the team with 1,496 yards receiving on 11 targets. Metchie vacates 1,142 yards receiving and 128 targets himself. In a competitive game, Williams should shoot way above his 7.9 target per game average. With Metchie out, Alabama elected to replace him with Ja’Corey Brooks ($9,600) instead of elevating Slade Bolden ($8,700). Brooks saw five targets and participated 88% of the team’s routes. Bolden remained in his part-time gadget role, participating in 52% of the routes and seeing three targets in the pass game. Bolden had seen targets of four and eight in his two games prior, so this may be more noise than anything. Alabama also uses 12 personnel a fair amount with Jahleel Billingsley ($3,000) and Cameron Latu ($4,200). Billingsley is the better pass catcher of the two, averaging 2.3 targets per game over Alabama’s final three contests. Latu checks in at 1.5 in that span. Still, Latu has 307 yards receiving on 30 targets, while Billingsley has 256 on 33 targets. At a cheaper price, Billingsley gets a slight bump, but these players are just ancillary options. Outside of that, JoJo Earle ($2,100) participated in 30% of the routes and Javon Baker ($1,800) participated in 15%. Each player received a target and will likely play a handful of snaps here.

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Check out Ben Rasa and Matt Gajewski breaking down the College Football Playoff National Championship game and their favorite NCAAF betting picks and bets for Alabama vs. Georgia.

Georgia (27.75 Implied Team Total)

Pass Rate: 42.63% (98th)

Play/Game: 64.2 (119th)

Georgia finished the regular season 13-1 with their only loss coming against Alabama in the SEC Championship. Georgia plays in the SEC East, facing a weaker strength of schedule than Alabama. Outside of their head-to-head loss, Georgia only won one game by less than 10 points (Clemson). Positively, the Bulldogs rebounded from their SEC defeat with a 34-11 win over Michigan in the playoff semi-final. Overall, Georgia has played extremely slow and run-heavy football behind comfortable leads. This changed drastically in Georgia’s last two games. The Bulldogs got off 82 and 69 plays while throwing the ball 69.5% and 52.2% of the time. This propelled quarterback Stetson Bennett ($15,000) to two of the better games in his career. Bennett only averaged 202.8 yards passing per game on 20.1 attempts during the regular season. However, he threw 48 times for 340 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions against Alabama. He also threw 30 times for 313 yards and three touchdowns against Michigan. These were season highs for both pass attempts and yardage output. Bennett has also proven mobile, with 283 cumulative yards rushing on the year. One main difference was Bennett’s lack of poise under pressure. He only completed one of 10 passes for 11 yards and an interception when pressured against Alabama. Conversely, Young completed five of 16 passes for 95 yards and no turnovers under pressure. Ultimately, Stetson’s recent success and Georgia’s offensive shift make him a solid and potentially contrarian quarterback to target here.

At running back Georgia returned to their committee approach against Michigan. Zamir White ($8,100) led the group with 12 carries on 30 snaps, while adding a pair of targets in the pass game. White finished with 775 yards rushing on 148 carries this year, but he only notched 27 yards on seven carries against Alabama in the first meeting. Alongside White, James Cook ($12,300) will also play a major role in the backfield. Cook saw six carries and four targets against Michigan last week after out-touching White in the two previous games. Cook tallied 651 yards rushing on 107 carries this year, while adding 259 yards receiving on 28 targets as the team’s preferred pass catching back. Against Michigan, Cook even caught a receiving touchdown while split out wide. A majority of the running back touches should flow through these two. White is the better price-adjusted play, but Cook brings a safer floor with his pass catching role. Behind them, Kendall Milton ($3,600) returned to the lineup after suffering a mid-season injury. He immediately out-carried Kenny McIntosh ($5,400) and Daijun Edwards ($3,300) with seven totes. McIntosh and Edwards only carried the ball two and four times respectively, but McIntosh in particular plays a role in the pass game. He averages three targets per game over Georgia’s last four. Milton and McIntosh offer some appeal as pure punts. Edwards only plays when the game is out of hand.

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In the receiving game, freshman tight end Brock Bowers ($13,800) remains the focal point of Georgia’s passing attack. Bowers logged 846 yards receiving on 66 targets this year with Georgia often eliminating the pass late in games. Bowers saw 15 targets in the first matchup between these teams, while no other player received more than five targets. At wide receiver Adonai Mitchell ($6,000) and Jermaine Burton ($10,500) continue to log the most snaps. Both participated in 53% of routes last week, while they accounted for three and two targets, respectively. Ladd McConkey ($7,500) saw four targets, but only participated in 32% of routes. He entered the game banged up, but he has not eclipsed 32% of the team’s routes in five straight weeks. Kearis Jackson ($2,400) participated in 35% of routes, while only seeing one target. Former alpha receiver George Pickens ($4,800) only saw one target as well, while participating in 24% of routes. Pickens continues to work his way back from an ACL tear in the spring game. He also contracted COVID-19 the week prior, potentially limiting him here. Pickens saw five targets against Alabama in their first go, potentially elevating him here. Outside of this group, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($1,500) and the other receivers only see a handful of snaps per game. Georgia often implements 12-personnel with Darnell Washington ($1,500) and John FitzPatrick ($1,500) limiting the snaps for certain receivers. Washington and Fitzpatrick participated in 47% and 41% of routes for Georgia against Michigan. Washington and FitzPatrick saw one and two targets respectively, but their roles are just as consistent as most of the receivers. Overall, Bowers is the top play by a wide margin. From there, Mitchell could make sense based on his consistent role. Otherwise, punting all the way down to a Pickens, Washington or Jackson makes the most sense with Georgia rotating pass catchers on and off the field.

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Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the DraftKings college football DFS ownership projections for today. Check out our industry-leading DFS college football projections for DraftKings. Looking for more college football DFS and college football DFS picks for FanDuel?

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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