The UFC returns with a PPV card this Saturday evening (at 6:15pm EST) from New York. Several of the original fights have been cancelled or changed, but we get a fun Main Event between the two-division champion, Dan Cormier, and the always entertaining Derrick Lewis for the Heavyweight title. The rest of the card has undergone a makeover, but there should be several exciting fights with all but three of them expected to end in a finish. Lots of expected finishes makes this a high-variance card which is great for multi-entry GPPs, but very difficult for cash games. Luckily we still have 13 fights on the card so there are lots of viable options for your DFS lineups. As usual, I will highlight my favorite plays in each format to help narrow down your decisions.
* Current betting odds and finish props can be found at BestFightOdds.com
Cash Game Plays
Dan Cormier ($9600)(-630) – DC is the top play on the card in a vacuum, but he is the most expensive fighter and will likely be the highest owned. His path to victory against Lewis is likely to involve wrestling and he has the best finish prop on the card by a wide margin at -440. This is also the only five round fight on the card, so DC should still put up a great score if he can’t secure the finish which gives him an excellent floor and ceiling. He is a tremendous play in cash games, and I plan to jam him in those lineups. I’m not as concerned about the price and ownership in most tournaments, but they become a bigger factor in large-field GPPs when you’re gunning for first place. The main issue I have with DC in those formats is that he could put up a great score over 100 points but still not end up on the optimal lineup because of how many other finishes are expected on the card and how lopsided the rest of the fights are on paper.
Of course, the other big risk is that Lewis is standing across the cage with massive KO power and a serious size advantage. Lewis is never out of fights, as he is routinely losing exchanges, only to come back with one big shot late that ends the fight. He makes for a solid contrarian GPP option in theory, but I also expect him to be a popular underdog play and I believe his ownership will exceed his actual chances of pulling off the upset.
Sijara Eubanks ($9400)(-540) vs Roxanne Modafferi ($6800)(+460)– What makes this card tricky for cash games is that so many of the fights are expected to end inside the distance, so there is not a lot of safety to be found (especially among the underdogs). This fight is the most likely of only three fights expected to go the distance and it puts both sides in play for me in cash games.
Eubanks is an excellent grappler who is very physically strong. She gets a favorable matchup against Modafferi, whom she already dominated on The Ultimate Fighter and I expect her to win comfortably once again. Eubanks is the closest thing to a lock on this card and makes for a safe bet for 90-100 points. While she did dominate Modafferi in the first matchup, she wasn’t able to finish and that’s why her perceived ceiling is capped in this spot. Eubanks is appealing to me in GPPs however, since she should be one of the lowest-owned fighters in the 9k+ range with DC, Adesanya and even Good being more popular because of their odds to finish.
On the other side of the matchup, Modafferi is poor defensively but she is also tough and throws in more volume on the feet, so I think she makes for a very strong punt option in cash games. She has very little chance of winning the fight, but I think she has a reasonable chance of putting up 25-50 points in a decision loss. I think it’s a pretty close decision between using either fighter in cash games or even stacking the fight depending on how you like to construct your rosters.
Other Cash Game Plays: Lyman Good ($9500), Israel Adesanya ($9100), Lando Vannata ($8900), Montel Jackson ($8300), Sheymon Moraes ($7000)
GPP Plays
Lyman Good ($9500)(-570) – Good is a heavy favorite over aging veteran, Ben Saunders, and has the second-best finish prop on the card at -270. He is a high-volume striker (5.50 SLpM) with power and is taking on a fighter who has been finished in 4 of his last 6 fights and appears to be nearing the end of his career. The main issue with Good is that he’s coming off a 16-month layoff, but I’m not overly concerned given the favorable matchup. Good should come in at around half the ownership of DC and has a reasonable chance of outscoring him with an early finish, so I think he makes for a strong pivot in GPPs.
Adam Wieczorek ($8600)(-210) vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima ($7600)(+190) – I plan to have a ton of exposure to this fight in GPPs as there isn’t much of a mid-range on this card and this fight is -425 to end in a finish. Fights with de Lima have always been very strong targets in GPPs because of his “finish-or-be-finished” style. He’s a very powerful kickboxer who comes out super aggressive early, but gasses out easily and loses if he can’t put his opponent away. He doesn’t put up much of a fight on the ground once he gasses and has been submitted multiple times.
Wieczorek is a tall and lanky Heavyweight who relies on his submission grappling. He’s not a great fighter and has been rocked in every fight but has managed to survive and pull off some late submissions. De Lima will test his chin early, but if Wieczorek can survive, he should be able to take over after the first round and get the win.
De Lima is a very appealing underdog play for the price, considering his path to victory, so he will likely be my highest-owned fighter below 8k. Unfortunately, I also expect him to be somewhat popular as a logical salary-saver to fit in DC. Wieczorek should be much lower owned but comes in with a 6” reach advantage and a finish prop of -120 so I want to have exposure to him as well.
Shane Burgos ($9000)(-315) vs Kurt Holobaugh ($7200)(+285) – This fight should have a ton of action and is a strong candidate for Fight of the Night. Both fighters like to engage on the feet and throw at a high volume but are also willing to take a shot to give one. Burgos is an aggressive counter striker who lands at 6.49 SLpM but leaves his hands down and has been hit at 5.29 SApM, while Holobaugh is a durable boxer who lands at 4.90 SLpM but has been hit at a rate of 4.07 SApM. Both fighters are durable but are coming off KO losses so this a high-variance spot. Burgos is the more talented fighter and I think he gets the win here, but Holobaugh is a live dog and I want to get exposure to him as well at lower ownership. If you wanted to stack a fight in cash games, this would be a solid alternative to stacking Eubanks/Modafferi because of the expected output.
Other GPP Plays: Lando Vannata ($8900), Jason Knight ($8800), Karl Roberson ($8700), Derek Brunson ($7100)
